The Morning: What Iran really wants

Plus, Israel, tech layoffs and stingless bees.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story January 30, 2024 Iran is at the center of the current turmoil in the Middle East. To help you understand why, my colleague Alissa Rubin, who has spent years reporting from the region, takes over today's newsletter. — David Leonhardt By Alissa J. Rubin Good morning. We're also covering Israel, tech layoffs and stingless bees. Tehran Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times A more assertive Iran Iran has emerged as the chief architect in multiple conflicts strafing the Middle East, from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf. It trained and helped arm the Iraqi militias that killed three U.S. service members with a drone in Jordan this weekend. It supplied Hamas and Hezbollah in their clashes with Israel. It launched missiles at anti-Iranian militants inside Pakistan in response to the bombing of a local police station in December. And it has helped Houthi warriors in Yemen attack container ships in the Red Sea to protest the war in Gaza. All of which, taken together, threaten a wider war. Why is Iran suddenly involved in so many conflicts? Today's newsletter will try to answer that question. Since the 1979 takeover of Iran by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the country's Islamic revolutionary government has had one overriding ambition: to be the lead player shaping the future of the Middle East. Seen another way, it wants Israel weaker and the United States gone from the region after decades of primacy. Like Israel, Iran sees existential threats everywhere and seeks to counter them. Iran, which has a Shiite majority, has wary, if not hostile, Sunni Arab neighbors. Its archenemy, Israel, has the reach to damage Iran. And since 2003, Iran has been surrounded by U.S. troops in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Persian Gulf and more recently in Syria. The troops in Afghanistan are gone now, but the rest remain, including the ones attacked by drone on Sunday. To achieve regional hegemony and safeguard its theocracy, Iran has responded on three fronts: military, diplomatic and economic. Those efforts have become more assertive in the past year, especially since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. Military power Militarily, Iran's government wants to project strength without drawing fire on its own territory, which could jeopardize its already tenuous popular support. Its strategy has been to build up regional proxy forces so that it rarely launches attacks from its own soil. Those forces include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza and a handful of Shiite militias in Iraq. Each has its own goals, but all are in agreement with Iran about combating Western troops in the region and diminishing Israel's standing. The United States designates each of them as a foreign terrorist organization. Since the October attack on Israel, these groups have targeted Israel's northern front, U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria, U.S. warships and international cargo ships in the Red Sea. Israel is the region's only nuclear-armed power. But in the past year, Tehran has accelerated its uranium enrichment efforts — bringing it close to creating a nuclear bomb if it wants. Iran insists it doesn't want one. But it's clear that the government sees the ability to make one as both a deterrent and a claim to pre-eminence among other Middle Eastern countries. Diplomatic power Iran's foreign policy is designed to try to reverse its image as an isolated nation — particularly after the U.S. intensified sanctions in 2018. Even before Oct. 7, it was cultivating its Arab neighbors as well as Russia and China. Early in 2023, for the first time in decades, Iran normalized relations with Saudi Arabia, repairing a rift between the two countries in a deal brokered by China. Iran is a vocal defender of the Palestinian national cause. It believes it draws legitimacy from the contrast with its neighbors, many of which have opened friendlier relations with Israel while Iran's proxies are still fighting it. Iran has worked since late fall alongside its neighbors — including formerly hostile Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — for a U.N. cease-fire resolution for Gaza. Economic survival Economically, Iran has had far more limited success dodging U.S. sanctions, leaving many Iranians poorer and more resentful of the government. The regime faced widespread protests in 2022 and 2023 over hijab mandates, and the nation's supreme leader has been urging women to vote in upcoming elections, signaling his concern that the government has antagonized them. Still, Iran has found ways to take advantage of a rising tide of anti-U.S. feeling among many countries. Tehran joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is led by Russia and China, and another partnership that includes Brazil and India. These deals open the door to investment and trade opportunities, although they supply few short-term economic solutions. "There's a good case to be made that Iran is a major winner from this conflict," said Dalia Dassa Kaye, a political scientist at the Burkle Center for International Relations at the University of California, Los Angeles. "The war is in many ways boosting Iranians' domestic, regional and global situation." She added, "So far, Iran has been able to gain all these benefits without paying direct costs." More on the drone attack American forces spotted the Iraqi militants' drone before the attack but mistook it for a U.S. aircraft and did not shoot it down, officials said. The U.S. identified the three slain service members as Army Reservists from Georgia, part of an engineering company trained to build infrastructure for the military on short notice. An Iranian official rebuffed accusations that Iran had ordered the strikes and said militias acted independently to oppose "any aggression and occupation." Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS Israel-Hamas War Qatar, representing Egypt, Israel and the U.S., is expected to propose a six-week pause in fighting for Hamas to exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. The U.N.'s main agency in Gaza may soon run out of money, officials said. Donors halted funding over accusations that some employees took part in the Oct. 7 attacks. Communication blackouts and restrictions placed on foreign journalists make it difficult for the people outside Gaza to grasp the true scale of destruction there. In the face of rising antisemitism, a Holocaust survivor who has dedicated her life to remembrance wonders if her work was in vain. Politics Donald Trump Maansi Srivastava/The New York Times Typos, math errors and a $48 million loan: Accusations of financial reporting problems at Trump's family business could worsen the penalty in his civil fraud trial. Future First, the main super PAC supporting President Biden, began to reserve $250 million in advertising across battleground states. A former I.R.S. contractor accused of leaking Trump's tax returns to The Times received a five-year prison sentence. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin returned to the Pentagon more than a month after he was hospitalized with surgery complications. Voters face a bewildering set of dates and procedures in this year's primaries. The confusion risks reducing participation and fueling distrust, Maggie Astor writes. Europe French farmers blocked main roads to Paris with tractors, intensifying a protest over wage levels, regulations and other issues. The main Protestant party in Northern Ireland said it would return to government nearly two years after walking out over Brexit trade rules. Rishi Sunak, the British prime minister, said he would ban disposable vapes to curb underage vaping. More International News Imran Khan Arif Ali/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Imran Khan, Pakistan's former prime minister, was sentenced to 10 years in prison, days before an election. Experts saw the verdict as part of a campaign by the military to sideline him. The downturn in China's real estate market, already the longest on record, is accelerating. Dozens of wildfires have burned across Colombia, fueled by drought and its hottest January in decades. South Africa's governing party, the A.N.C., suspended the former president Jacob Zuma after he endorsed a rival party. Three Japanese citizens, including a man of Pakistani descent, sued the nation's police accusing them of racial profiling, The A.P. reports. Canada delayed plans to offer medically assisted death to people with mental illness. A panel cited a shortage of psychiatrists. Business and Economy Tech giants like Amazon have been on a layoff spree. The cuts are more targeted than last year's mass reductions. (Workers are recording their layoffs and sharing them on social media.) Elon Musk said his Neuralink company, which is developing brain implants to control computers, had placed its first device in a person. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates this year, raising a question: Why lower borrowing costs when the economy looks strong? X lifted a block on searches for Taylor Swift. It stopped them while people were searching for explicit fake images, The Wall Street Journal reports. New York City The subway system is testing new fare gates to stop turnstile jumpers and metal platform barriers to improve passenger safety. They may not work. Williamsburg, once a neighborhood of mills and meatpacking, is now a prime destination for developers. See a four-decade timeline of its transformation. Other Big Stories Rain in Santa Barbara, Calif., last month. Eugene Garcia/Associated Press A massive plume of moisture, called an "atmospheric river," is set to bring heavy rain to the West Coast. A judge declined to grant a new trial for Alex Murdaugh, the former South Carolina lawyer convicted of murdering his wife and son. Reports of hate crimes in schools and colleges nearly doubled between 2018 and 2022, according to the F.B.I. Teenagers who use drugs and alcohol are more likely to have underlying psychiatric symptoms than peers who don't do so regularly, a study found. Opinions Biden should campaign by making a strong populist case for a future in which ordinary Americans can prosper, Chris Whipple argues. Gail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss why they each want Nikki Haley to stay in the race. Here are columns by Paul Krugman on conservatives' fears and Jamelle Bouie on Jan. 6. Discover more of the insight you value in The Morning. The Times is filled with information and inspiration every day. So gain unlimited access to everything we offer — and save with this introductory offer. MORNING READS In Marontoari. Brenda Rivas Tacury In the Amazon: Deforestation is destroying the habitat for stingless bees. Read about the mission to save them. Mrs. World: A Utah homemaker with a big social media following participated in a beauty pageant weeks after giving birth to her eighth child. Downsizing: The Times's chief fashion critic, Vanessa Friedman, on how to dress while losing weight. Lives Lived: N. Scott Momaday's "House Made of Dawn" portrayed a disaffected World War II veteran's journey to spiritual renewal. It won a Pulitzer Prize, the first for a Native American novelist. Momaday died at 89. SPORTS N.F.L.: Sunday's N.F.C. championship game was the most-watched television event since last year's Super Bowl. "All in good fun": The Ravens kicker Justin Tucker downplayed a pregame spat with Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, attributing it to gamesmanship. Women's basketball: Baylor is retiring Brittney Griner's jersey number after a decade of tension between the school and its former player. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS February reads: Find your next book with the help of the Book Review, which has highlighted 17 notable titles coming out next month. Their picks include: "Fourteen Days," edited by Margaret Atwood and Douglas Preston: Thirty-six writers, including John Grisham and Celeste Ng, collaborated on this novel about residents of a Lower East Side building at the beginning of Covid. "Burn Book: A Tech Love Story," by Kara Swisher: Swisher, a tech writer, has written a memoir that also serves as a history of — and reckoning with — big tech. "Wandering Stars," by Tommy Orange: This novel chronicles a young survivor of a 19th-century massacre of Native Americans. It is a sequel to "There There," a Pulitzer finalist in 2019. More on culture "Bluey" was the most-streamed children's show last year, while viewership for "Friends" expanded yet again, according to year-end Nielsen data. A man who stole Dorothy's slippers from the Judy Garland Museum in Minnesota said he believed they were adorned with real rubies. (They're sequined.) "Great for the N.F.L. and for dads who struggle to bond with their teenage daughters": The late night hosts discussed Taylor Swift's game appearances. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Ryan Liebe for The New York Times Pour sizzling oil over red-pepper flakes, orange peel and peanuts when making these chicken noodles. Increase your couch's life span by cleaning it regularly. Here's how. Use a screwdriver recommended by a professional carpenter. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was tailwind. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018