Fareed: Biden Might Regret Keeping Trump’s Tariffs

Will protectionism tip the 2024 election? Plus: The 'vibecession' persists; autocrats team up; 'destroying' Hamas; and Mexico after AMLO …

View this email in your browser  Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good   Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Sign up here.   April 12, 2024 Fareed: Biden Might Regret Keeping Trump's Tariffs We complain a lot about inflation, and for good reason—higher prices hurt everyone. In his latest Washington Post column, Fareed points out that both the Trump and Biden administrations have employed a policy that makes the problem worse: tariffs.   Former President Donald Trump levied tariffs on certain imports from China and Europe, railing against the offshoring of US jobs to China and offering up protectionist trade barriers as a remedy. As a candidate, President Joe Biden criticized those policies, but as president, he has largely kept them in place.   Some recent conventional wisdom has argued in favor of protectionism, but Fareed contests it. Noting the impression "that America hollowed out its manufacturing base by embracing globalization and efficiency, which in turn led to the rise of right-wing populism," Fareed points out: "[T]hat argument doesn't stand scrutiny because countries like Germany and France, which protected workers and invested massively in retraining, have also seen right-wing populism boom. … People around the world, especially in America, have gotten used to the dramatic declines in cost that globalization has brought them over the past three decades. … And when people are forced to bear the costs of higher prices, they tend to lash out at those in power. What an irony it would be if policies designed to keep populists at bay end up punishing mainstream politicians instead." The 'Vibecession' Persists On an array of metrics, the US economy is doing well. And yet, to many, it doesn't feel that way. The economics commentator Kyla Scanlon captured this phenomenon by coining the neologism "vibecession": Regardless of the economy's statistical performance, the term suggests, the vibes can still be bad.   And indeed they are. Wall Street Journal Chief Economics Commentator Greg Ip recently noted that many Americans have misperceived not just the economy's overall state but a very important aspect of it. "In The Wall Street Journal's latest poll of swing states, 74% of respondents said inflation has moved in the wrong direction in the past year," Ip wrote. "This assessment, which holds across all seven states, is startling, sobering—and simply not true."   The New Yorker's John Cassidy suggests the news media might be part of the problem, pointing to research that argues coverage of the economy has been too negative. Cassidy also wonders if near-full employment and strong job security will change perceptions.   "Despite the recent change in the tone of economic news coverage, the broad narrative of the past few years is arguably still awry," Cassidy writes. "[Aaron] Sojourner, who is a labor economist, and worked at the White House Council of Economic Advisers in 2016 and 2017, certainly thinks so. He pointed to recent trends in job security, which depends, at least in part, on the threat of getting laid off. Up until the pandemic, he told me, the lowest monthly rate of layoffs and firings was 1.1 per cent, but since January, 2021, when Biden became President, the layoff rate has been at or below 1.1 per cent nearly constantly." Autocrats Team Up Autocrats are cooperating these days, Western foreign-policy analysts have noted. In a Foreign Affairs essay in February, Oriana Skylar Mastro wondered if China, Russia and North Korea could form a tripartite alliance against Western-aligned liberal democracies, noting Pyongyang's provision of needed artillery shells to Moscow for the latter's war on Ukraine.   More recently, Alexander Gabuev wrote in the same magazine that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be serious about looking to China for support and partnership as he squares off with the West. In a reversal since the Cold War, China clearly appears to be the senior partner in the relationship, but Gabuev argued that despite the risk of becoming a Chinese "vassal"—and the risk that the Russian–Chinese partnership will fray if Beijing begins exerting its leverage and dictating terms to Moscow—Putin would prefer that form of diminution to what he sees as a Western liberal assault on traditional Russian culture.   In a late-March Foreign Affairs essay, Hal Brands offered guidance to Western capitals as they watch their autocratic rivals team up. These alliances may not look like the codified, out-in-the-open alliances that Western democracies maintain, Brands wrote: "Some alliances are nothing more than nonaggression pacts that allow predators to devour their prey rather than devouring one another. Some alliances are military-technological partnerships in which countries build and share the capabilities they need to shatter the status quo. Some of the world's most destructive alliances featured little coordination and even less affection: they were simply rough agreements to assail the existing order from all sides. Alliances can be secret or overt, formal or informal. They can be devoted to preserving the peace or abetting aggression. …  That's the key to understanding the relationships among U.S. antagonists today. These relationships may be ambiguous and ambivalent. They may lack formal defense guarantees. But they still augment the military power revisionist states can muster and reduce the strategic isolation those countries might otherwise face. … [I]t wouldn't take an illiberal, revisionist version of NATO to cause an overstretched superpower fits." What Does It Mean to 'Destroy' Hamas? Hamas is a terrorist organization that has governed the Gaza Strip since 2007. But it's also a movement, predicated on the idea of armed, Islamist conflict with the state of Israel. So, is it really possible to "destroy" such a movement, as the Israeli government has promised to do in the current war?   On Sunday's GPS, Fareed heard former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's answer: that forcing the remnants of Hamas to abandon Gaza and take refuge in Qatar, for instance—and revamping media and education in the Strip to avoid the inculcation of hate—would constitute an Israeli victory over the terrorist group. Mexico After AMLO When Mexicans vote on June 2, they're very likely to elect their country's first female president, Nicolás Medina Mora writes in the current issue of The New York Review of Books. The odds-on favorite to win is Claudia Sheinbaum, former Mexico City mayor and heiress to the MORENA party launched by popular current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO). Trailing her is another woman, the businesswoman and former senator Xóchitl Gálvez, who is backed by a coalition of opposition parties.   Sheinbaum's policies and inclinations may differ from AMLO's, Mora writes: She's an environmental scientist, but given AMLO's support for her candidacy and broad popularity, Sheinbaum may find it difficult to downplay or undo his moves to elevate oil as a key part of Mexico's economic future. Reflecting on what has changed since the "Democratic Transition" in 2000—when Mexico elected the conservative President Vicente Fox and broke a streak of single-party dominance—and how AMLO has spurred that change along, Mora writes: "At the level of material reality, Mexico remains for the most part the same country that it was in 2018. By some measures (labor rights, the minimum wage), it is slightly better off; by many others (violence, democratic integrity), things have gotten much worse. … Then again, there's one sense in which López Obrador has, in fact, transformed Mexico. He rose to power on the masses' rejection of the regimes of the Democratic Transition, which were controlled by neoliberal economists and law-and-order reactionaries and kleptocrats in well-cut suits. Now there's no going back. After López Obrador, even the right wing has found it necessary to nominate a woman." What did you think of today's newsletter? Send ideas, questions and feedback to globalbriefing@cnn.com   You are receiving this newsletter because you signed up for Fareed's Global Briefing. To stop receiving this newsletter, unsubscribe or sign up to manage your CNN account   Learn more about the CNN app |  Get CNN web alerts  |  Sign up for a free CNN account   ® © 2024 Cable News Network. A Warner Bros. Discovery Company. 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The Evening: House passes surveillance bill

Also, the U.S. made it more expensive to drill on public land.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story April 12, 2024 By Matthew Cullen Good evening. Here's the latest at the end of Friday. An extension of a surveillance bill A price hike to drill on public land Plus, a quick end to a TV marriage The final vote on the bill was 273 to 147, with both parties split. Jason Andrew for The New York Times The House passed an extension of a surveillance law In a major turnaround, the House passed a two-year reauthorization of a controversial program that allows the government to collect the communications of targeted foreigners abroad without warrants. It must still clear the Senate. The fate of the bill, which would extend a provision of law known as Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, was unclear until just before it passed, as lawmakers considered a series of proposed changes. The House narrowly rejected a bipartisan effort to restrict searches of Americans' messages swept up by the program, a top priority for some civil liberties advocates. In an effort to persuade hard-right Republicans who had blocked the bill earlier in the week, Speaker Mike Johnson shortened the time frame for reauthorization from five years to two. The shorter time frame could allow Donald Trump to help dictate the program's future if he is elected to another term. The former president had urged Republicans to "kill" the law, which he incorrectly asserted had been used to spy on his campaign. Trump's animosity toward the intelligence community goes back years. As president, he characterized it as part of a politicized "deep state" that was out to get him. But since he left office that distrust has grown into outright hostility; he has repeatedly portrayed intelligence agencies as his enemy and vowed to "demolish" them. Oil and gas companies said the changes would damage the economy. Jae C. Hong/Associated Press The U.S. raised the price to drill on public land The Biden administration today raised the royalty rates that companies must pay to extract oil, gas and coal from public lands. It was the first time since 1920 that the rates have increased, as President Biden looks to cement more of his environmental priorities before the end of his term. The oil and gas industry strongly opposed the higher rates, but the increase is not expected to significantly discourage drilling. Officials estimated that the new rules would raise costs for fossil fuel companies by about $1.5 billion between now and 2031. About half of that money would go to states, a third of it would fund water projects in the West and the rest would go to the Treasury and Interior Departments. President Biden speaking about student debt in Madison, Wis., last week. Tom Brenner for The New York Times Biden canceled $7.4 billion more in student loans Roughly 270,000 Americans were notified today that some or all of their student loans would be canceled, the Biden administration said. They were the latest group to be included in President Biden's piecemeal loan forgiveness strategy, which he pivoted to after the Supreme Court struck down a more ambitious plan. Today's cancellations brought the administration's total in debt forgiven to $153 billion, involving about 4.3 million borrowers. Officials said they hope to eventually reduce or cancel the debt of about 30 million borrowers. Higher levels of drinking during lockdowns may have exacerbated these issues. Getty Images Alcohol-related health issues are rising among women Liver disease and other health problems related to alcohol use increased more than expected among women ages 40 to 64 during the pandemic, a new study found. It was the latest addition to a growing body of evidence that rising alcohol consumption among women is leading to higher rates of death and disease. Men still die more often from drinking-related issues, but "the gap is narrowing," one researcher said. More top news Israel: The U.S. issued new travel guidelines for the country, warning that Iran will avenge the killings of its senior commanders. Texas: One person was killed and several others injured after a man drove a semi truck into a government office in Brenham. Haiti: The country's leaders set up a transitional ruling council to appoint a new acting prime minister and pave the way for the election of a new president. Economics: A wave of rapid immigration is taxing local resources around the U.S. and drawing political anger. But it might leave the economy better off. Campaign: Vice President Kamala Harris traveled to Arizona today to assail Donald Trump over abortion restrictions. Politics: The Democratic National Committee helped pay for lawyers during the special counsel investigation into President Biden's handling of classified documents. Banking: The chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, the nation's largest bank, warned of an "unsettling" global landscape that could weigh on its performance. Opioids: The National Academy of Sciences is asking a court to allow it to strip the Sackler family name from endowment funds. Higher education: Universities are relaunching their D.E.I. offices under different names to try to preserve diversity programs. Fashion: Roberto Cavalli, the Italian fashion designer who celebrated glamour and excess, died at 83. TIME TO UNWIND "The Golden Bachelor" has renewed interest in the "Bachelor" franchise when its ratings had been slipping. John Fleenor/The Walt Disney Company, via Associated Press A quick end to a marriage made for reality TV Gerry Turner, who last year, at 72, became the first star of ABC's "The Golden Bachelor," once hoped that his marriage to Theresa Nist would serve as a reminder that people of any age can fall in love. But today the couple announced that they were getting divorced, just three months after they wed in front of millions of television viewers. They cited difficulty finding a living situation near both of their respective families. Nist encouraged viewers who had been inspired not to be discouraged: "We say, 'Don't give up,'" she said. Max Homa on the 4th tee during round two at Augusta National Golf Club. Doug Mills/The New York Times Golf's first major of the year is underway The second round of the Masters is nearly complete, and it's shaping up to be just as exciting as fans had hoped. Scottie Scheffler, whose delightfully awkward "Scottie Shuffle" swing has made him the best player in the world right now, is battling it out for the lead with Bryson DeChambeau. The tournament is played every year at the beloved Augusta National Golf Club, which both players and fans know well. My colleagues at The Athletic picked out five holes that could decide who will emerge as the champion on Sunday. From left, the prosecutor Christopher Darden, the defense attorney Barry Scheck and the prosecutor Marcia Clark. Pool photo by Vince Bucci Dinner table topics Where are they now: We took a look at key figures from the O.J. Simpson trial and tracked down the famous White Bronco. Hidden faces: A new Met show highlights artworks with secret portraits. Remembering Flaco: Several New Yorkers have honored the escaped Central Park Zoo owl, who died in February, by getting tattoos of him. A critic's look: Reading this Frank O'Hara poem is like going on a perfect first date. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT WHAT TO DO THIS WEEKEND Andrew Scrivani for The New York Times Cook: This simple pasta primavera uses the earliest available spring vegetables. Watch: If you're looking to see a new movie this weekend, here are seven we reviewed. Read: Andrew Boryga's "Victim" is one of six new books we think you'll enjoy. Dine: Our dining-obsessed readers want to tell you the best restaurants in New York City. Entertain: A home bar needs more than just liquor. Here's how to set yours up. Shop: Beat back the glare in style with our favorite sunglasses. Compete: Take this week's news quiz. Play: Here are today's Spelling Bee, Wordle and Mini Crossword. Find all of our games here. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT ONE LAST THING "Pizza Haute," is just one of the meticulous themed dinners at Chain. Chain Brands Inc. Serving up your fast food memories Our food critic Tejal Rao went to a pop-up restaurant in Los Angeles and was served a personal pan pizza that looked like the kind you might remember from a 1990s Pizza Hut. Except, somehow, this modern copy felt more like the real thing than anything you might get at a Pizza Hut today. The restaurant, called Chain, specializes in exactly that. Dreamed up by the actor B.J. Novak, it taps into a feverish nostalgia for fast food of the past by remaking decades-old favorites from McDonald's, KFC and other chains. Have an evocative weekend. Thanks for reading. I'll be back on Monday. — Matthew We welcome your feedback. Write to us at evening@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Writer: Matthew Cullen Editorial Director: Adam Pasick Editors: Carole Landry, Whet Moser, Justin Porter, Jonathan Wolfe Photo Editor: Brent Lewis Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for The Evening from The New York Times. To stop receiving The Evening, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018