The Morning: The new great-power politics

Plus, O.J. Simpson, three stranded sailors and Pompeii.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story April 12, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering the growing cooperation among China, Russia and other U.S. rivals — as well as O.J. Simpson's death, three stranded sailors and Pompeii. Houthi recruits in Yemen. Yahya Arhab/EPA, via Shutterstock 'More and more aligned' The Houthis, the Iran-backed militia that controls much of Yemen, have disrupted the global economy by firing on commercial ships traveling through the Red Sea. But the Houthis have made some exceptions: Ships from China and Russia are allowed to pass without being attacked. This policy, formalized with a diplomatic agreement last month, is the latest sign that the world has entered a new period of great power politics. On one side is the largely democratic alliance — including the United States, Japan, South Korea and Western Europe — that has dominated global affairs since the demise of the Soviet Union. On the other side are China, Russia, Iran and North Korea as well as Iran-backed groups like the Houthis. These authoritarian powers "are more and more aligned," Jens Stoltenberg, the head of NATO, the Western alliance, told the BBC this week. "They support each other more and more, in very practical ways." In today's newsletter, I'll explain how the emerging alliance is shaping the world and why experts are anxious about the future. Money, weapons and propaganda Over the past decade, the emerging anti-democratic alliance has become bolder and more coordinated. Among the examples: In the Ukraine war, China, Iran and North Korea have supplied crucial help to Russia. Iran and North Korea have sent weapons. And China has allowed Russia's economy to overcome tough sanctions, as my colleague Ana Swanson has detailed. This economic aid offers military benefits, too: China is helping Russia rebuild its military-industrial base after two years of war. China and Russia also act as military allies beyond Ukraine. "China and Russia are pursuing the joint development of helicopters, conventional attack submarines, missiles and missile-launch early warning systems," Hal Brands of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies recently wrote in Foreign Affairs. Iran and North Korea resumed their collaboration on missile technology during the Trump administration, according to the U.N. North Korea already has nuclear weapons, and Iran seems to want them. During the war in Gaza, Chinese and Russian groups have filled social media with posts supporting Hamas (which, like the Houthis, relies on Iranian support). Many include antisemitic tropes, such as Jewish control of the U.S. "The reason why China chose this moment to take a decisively anti-Israel position is because China regards Israel as a close ally of the West," Miles Yu of the Hudson Institute told Congress. The Houthis have praised Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a global turning point. Ali al-Qahoum, a Houthi leader, said that the invasion had weakened "unipolarity" — a reference to American power — and promoted "multipolarity." A ship crosses the Suez Canal toward the Red Sea. Mohamed Hossam/EPA, via Shutterstock Very different values Al-Qahoum's line underscores the larger goal of the China-led alliance. Above all, it wants to reduce American influence and allow regional powers to assert their will. China might then be able to take over Taiwan. Russia could again dominate parts of Eastern Europe. Iran could contest Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally, for sway over the Middle East. (These Times maps, by Alissa Rubin and Lazaro Gamio, explain Iran's ambitions.) The countries in the anti-U.S. alliance, Brands wrote, aim "to reorder their regions and, thereby, reorder the world." As Fumio Kishida, Japan's prime minister, told Congress yesterday during a visit to Washington, "The international order that the U.S. worked for generations to build is facing new challenges, challenges from those with values and principles very different from ours." These other countries obviously have their differences: Iran, for instance, is an Islamic theocracy, while China and Russia have oppressed their own Muslim populations. But the countries nonetheless have overlapping worldviews. All have authoritarian governments. All have patriarchal societies, with few women in senior roles. All restrict L.G.B.T. rights. None permit a free press. All imprison people, or worse, for criticizing the regime. The countries celebrate their hostility to liberal democracy and want to forge a world with less of it. What's next? One possibility is that the world is entering a new cold war, with two broad alliances competing for power. Sometimes, this competition may lead to actual wars, in which the two alliances support opposite sides — but both take steps to avoid escalation. That describes the situation in Ukraine. Another possibility is even more alarming: a global war. Noah Smith, writing in his Substack newsletter this week, argued that the chances of such an outcome were higher than many Americans recognized. This war could start either with a major event, such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, or almost accidentally. Imagine if the Houthis killed many Americans in a Red Sea attack or a Russian missile somehow did so in Europe. Experts are especially worried about China's harassment of Philippine ships in the South China Sea. In a White House meeting yesterday, President Biden discussed the threat with the leaders of the Philippines and Japan. One problem, as Jim Sciutto of CNN pointed out in his new book, "The Return of Great Powers," is that the guardrails that helped prevent a past world war seem weaker today. China and the U.S. don't always communicate as well as Soviet and American officials once did, and proxy forces like the Houthis don't always heed their sponsors. The past several decades have included many agonizing problems around the world. Overall, though, it has been a remarkably peaceful period. Global deaths from armed conflicts have fallen to near their lowest levels in six centuries, and global poverty has plummeted. The future looks more frightening. Related: The U.S. dispatched a top military commander to Israel, a reflection of concerns that Iran could soon retaliate for Israel's killing of officials who worked with the Houthis and Hamas. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS O.J. Simpson O.J. Simpson in 1995. Pool photo by Myung J. Chun O.J. Simpson — the football star who was acquitted of murder in a trial that mesmerized the nation — died at 76. Read his Times obituary. Though extensive evidence pointed to his guilt, Simpson ended the trial as a free man. Los Angeles residents recalled yesterday how the verdict split the city. The trial made household names of its prosecutors, defense lawyers and witnesses — the beginning of fame for the Kardashians. Here is what's happened to the major figures. Simpson was an earthquake, and we're still living with his aftershocks: Read Wesley Morris's essay about him. 2024 Election Speaker Mike Johnson will meet with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago today. His House position is under threat from Marjorie Taylor Greene. John Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser, said he would not vote for Trump. He plans to write in Dick Cheney's name. A Times/Siena College poll asked voters to describe their feelings about the 2024 election in one word. "Anxious," "Disappointed" and "Hopeful" topped the list. The Biden campaign's message on abortion? "Trump did this." More on Politics Senator Robert Menendez's corruption trial will begin next month. His wife, Nadine, will face trial later. A liberal justice on the Wisconsin Supreme Court will not seek re-election next year, threatening the majority that liberals won last year. Georgia's lieutenant governor faces an investigation for serving as a fake Trump elector in 2020. Israel-Hamas War The site of the Tribe of Nova festival. Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times When Hamas attacked a music festival on Oct. 7, many attendees were high on psychedelics. That has given Israeli researchers a chance to study how drugs affect trauma. International criticism of Israel has put a spotlight on nations that send it weapons. Read a list of the biggest suppliers. America's pro-Palestinian movement has grown into a powerful, if disjointed, political force. Democrats feel the pressure. Asia South Korea's opposition party gained seats in elections, putting new constraints on President Yoon Suk Yeol at home. Civil war in Myanmar has pushed half the population into poverty, CNN reports. A.I. Mistral, a French start-up considered a promising challenger to OpenAI and Google, is getting support from European leaders. Axios's C.E.O. said A.I. would "eviscerate the weak, the ordinary, the unprepared in media." He's changed the company's strategy to increase live events. Other Big Stories In Micronesia. U.S. Coast Guard Three men stranded on a remote Pacific island for more than a week were rescued by the U.S. Coast Guard after spelling out "HELP" on a beach using palm leaves. Shohei Ohtani's former interpreter was charged with stealing $16 million from him to gamble. A Texas surgeon is accused of secretly denying patients liver transplants by tampering with a government database. Opinions J.D. Vance, a Republican senator from Ohio, says that his party is not against helping Ukraine — but that Ukraine is asking for more help than the West can provide. Here are columns by David Brooks in praise of middle managers, Michelle Goldberg on the movie "Civil War" and Maureen Dowd on O.J. Simpson and jealousy. A subscription to match the variety of your interests. News. Games. Recipes. Product reviews. Sports reporting. A New York Times All Access subscription covers all of it and more. Subscribe today. MORNING READS In Ocean Grove, N.J. Hannah Yoon for The New York Times Church and shore: Can a Christian community close the beach on Sunday mornings? Terrance: The joys and challenges of caring for a pet octopus. Costco: The store began stocking gold bars last fall. It now sells up to $200 million in gold and silver each month. Tracing history: In South Carolina, a community project is giving Black residents clues about their ancestry. Lives Lived: Thomas Gumbleton clashed with fellow Catholic bishops over his support for liberal causes. He died at 94. Half a world away, Nijole Sadunaite, a Lithuanian nun, clashed with the K.G.B. over her support for democracy and religious freedom. She died at 85. SPORTS College basketball: Kentucky is finalizing a deal to hire Mark Pope, a former Kentucky player, from B.Y.U. as its next head coach. Golf: Bryson DeChambeau leads the Masters after a first-round 65. N.F.L.: Tom Brady, now 46, says he is open to playing again. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS Helen of Troy, Paris and a handmaiden. Parco Archeologico di Pompei Archaeologists at Pompeii have uncovered a formal dining room that offers a glimpse of how some of the lost town's wealthier people lived, or at least the art they looked at as they ate. The walls were black to hide stains from candle smoke, experts said, and were divided into panels decorated with portraits of couples associated with the Trojan War. See images of the site and the paintings. More on culture Aleksei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader, wrote a memoir before his death. Knopf will publish it in the U.S., under the title "Patriot." Late night hosts joked about Trump's criminal trial. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews. Make a pimento cheese sandwich in honor of the Masters. Visit Times readers' favorite restaurants in New York City. Plan your Mother's Day gift. Use better cleaning cloths. Play a video game set in postapocalyptic Australia. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was brickbat. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David P.S. Donald Dimmock, who died last month at 79, never appeared in pages of The Times. But he was an essential part of the paper for over three decades. His job: keeping the lights (and the giant printing presses) on. Read about his life. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. 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