The Evening: Inflation falls below 3%

Also, U.S. officials say Israel's military has achieved all it can in Gaza.

View in browser|nytimes.com August 14, 2024 By Matthew Cullen Good evening. Here's the latest at the end of Wednesday. Cooling inflation Israel's military gains in Gaza Plus, the grandfather of reality TV Karl Russell Inflation fell below 3% for the first time in years Annual inflation cooled more than expected last month, to 2.9 percent, according to a Consumer Price Index report released today. It was the first time that the inflation gauge had dropped below 3 percent since 2021. "On a practical level, there's no meaningful distinction between 2.9 percent and 3 percent," our economics reporter, Ben Casselman, told me. "It's the difference between your $6 latte costing $6.17 next year or $6.18. But the larger decline in inflation is absolutely significant." Just two years ago, prices were rising at more than 9 percent per year, and prominent economists were arguing that it would take a recession to bring inflation under control. "Now, inflation is basically back to its historic range, albeit still above where the Fed would like," Ben said. "That's a pretty remarkable turnaround." Most economists now see a recession-free "soft landing" as the likeliest scenario, Ben said. But the economy still faces potential hazards: The unemployment rate is low, but it has risen steadily, and many people are falling behind on their credit card bills. Those factors, along with cooling inflation, have put the Federal Reserve firmly on track to cut interest rates at its meeting next month. The war in Gaza has gone on for more than 10 months with only a one-week pause in November. Eyad Baba/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Israel's military has achieved all it can in Gaza, U.S. says Israel's military response to the Oct. 7 attacks has done far more damage to Hamas than U.S. officials had first predicted. But a growing number of American national security officials told my colleagues that Israel would never be able to completely eliminate the group. Instead, current and former U.S. and Israeli officials said that Israel would only be able to secure the return of the hostages through negotiation. The continued bombings, senior American officials said, are only increasing risks to civilians. Tomorrow, cease-fire talks are set to take place in Doha, Qatar. Here's the latest. 🇺🇸 2024 The presidential election is 83 days away. Here's the latest from the campaign trail. Turning Point USA is among several super PACs with canvassing operations. Jon Cherry for The New York Times New rules remade Republican outreach efforts Under new federal rules, Donald Trump's campaign has decided to outsource its voter canvassing efforts to groups like super PACs. The move is likely to save the campaign money, but some senior Republican Party officials worry that it puts too much responsibility in the hands of inexperienced groups without oversight. Democrats, who rely on labor unions that can coordinate with campaigns, have not followed suit. Here's what else to know: New polls showed Kamala Harris slightly ahead of or tied with Trump in six of the seven battleground states. Christian conservatives are laying the groundwork for a fight against I.V.F. President Biden is upset with Nancy Pelosi, and the two have not spoken since she began her effort to push him out of the race. Your questions: We asked readers what they'd like to know about the election. For today's question, I turned to Ruth Igielnik, our polling editor. "Are there really any undecided voters? The two candidates are so different, it seems like everyone knows how they will vote." — Susan Stevens from Lakeside, Mich. Ruth: You're absolutely right that, in this highly polarized era, only a very small percentage of voters are actually undecided in this election. Depending on the state, it could be anywhere between 3 and 7 percent of voters. And in key swing states, that can be the entire margin of victory for a candidate. So, winning over a sizable chunk of the roughly 5 percent of voters in Michigan who are undecided may be the difference between losing and winning the election. You can send questions to us here. A scan of the brain of a 42-year-old patient in a coma. Zephyr/Science Source Unresponsive patients may have some awareness Hundreds of thousands of patients in the U.S. have been diagnosed as minimally conscious or in a vegetative state after suffering severe brain damage. Some survive for many years in that state, posing an agonizing mystery: Even if they can't communicate, might they still be aware? A large study published today offered evidence that about a quarter of them are. In other brain health news, implants in a patient with A.L.S. were able to recognize words he tried to speak. More top news Russia: The military moved some troops from Ukraine to fight Kyiv's incursion into the country's west. Health: The W.H.O. again designated an mpox epidemic, which this year has spread through 13 countries in Africa, as a global emergency. Trump: Justice Juan Merchan, who oversaw the trial that led to Donald Trump's conviction, declined for a third time to step aside from the case. Europe: German authorities issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian suspected of being involved in blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline. Sudan: As famine deepens, the U.S. is initiating new peace talks to end the catastrophic civil war. Technology: An A.I.-powered deepfake of Elon Musk has become the internet's biggest scammer. New Zealand: A charity accidentally gave away meth disguised as candy, each piece of which contained up to 300 doses. TIME TO UNWIND "The Challenge" premiered in 1998. OK McCausland for The New York Times 'The Challenge' made reality TV a career Before gossiping Real Housewives and yelling celebrity chefs captivated viewers, MTV's "The Challenge" laid the groundwork for what reality television would become. Now, with the show's 40th season premiering tonight, we took a look back at the legacy of the grandfather of reality-competition shows. It changed the industry by helping create a new type of semi-celebrity — someone who spends much of their life on one reality show or another, entertaining fans with harrowing stunts and back-stabbing betrayals. Simbarashe Cha/The New York Times Fashion week is different in Copenhagen It doesn't have the prestige of Paris Fashion Week, nor does it draw crowds like the shows in New York, London and Milan, but Copenhagen Fashion Week has its own charm. The event, which just wrapped up, is friendly, approachable and relaxed — reflecting Denmark's status as among the happiest countries in the world. On and off the runways, the clothes were lively and diverse. Check out our photos. Ryan Pfluger for The New York Times Dinner table topics Leading actress: Cailee Spaeny is still figuring out whether she wants to be a movie star. Old Timer: The world's oldest known humpback whale is at least 53 years old. How he's survived this long is a mystery. Improbable journey: A six-ton megalith at the heart of Stonehenge traveled more than 450 miles to get there. Travel plans?: Experts said it might be worth considering a mask. WHAT TO DO TONIGHT Linda Xiao for The New York Times Cook: Everything-bagel croutons are the wonder ingredient your summer salad is missing. Read: Nathan Newman's novel follows an Englishman looking for a package in an endearing small town. Game: These are the summer's most talked-about video games. Listen: Here are nine great songs recorded at Electric Lady Studios. Cope: Our writer says vintage B-roll footage helps him get through anxiety. Clean: We tested 24 dishwasher detergents to find the best. Play: Here are today's Spelling Bee, Wordle and Mini Crossword. Find all of our games here. ONE LAST THING Rand Faaborg and his two sons, and their mushrooms.  Annick Sjobakken for The New York Times This family is betting the farm on a wild idea After decades of raising hogs in rural Iowa, Rand Faaborg was ready to leave the livestock business. But he didn't want to abandon a farm that the family had poured so much money and effort into. So, this summer, the Faaborgs embarked on a radical transformation: They traded their hogs for mushrooms. The person driving the changes is Faaborg's second-oldest son, Tanner, who wants to prove that industrial farmers can return land to nature, grow environmentally friendlier food and still make a profit. "I want to make rural America a place where people want to live and grow up in," Tanner said. Have a restorative evening. Thanks for reading. I'll be back tomorrow. — Matthew Philip Pacheco was our photo editor today. We welcome your feedback. Write to us at evening@nytimes.com. Writer: Matthew Cullen Editorial Director: Adam Pasick Editors: Carole Landry, Whet Moser, Justin Porter, Jonathan Wolfe Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for The Evening from The New York Times. To stop receiving The Evening, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018

The Audacity of Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive

The strategy of a surprise incursion into Russian territory, plus: Divided Britain; Venezuela's opposition leader on her country's vote and future; and the Harris momentum shift …

View this email in your browser  Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good   Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Sign up here.   August 14, 2024 The Audacity of Ukraine's Kursk Offensive Ukraine has made a bold bet by charging into Russian territory, where it claims to have seized hundreds of square miles. Kyiv launched the advance into Russia's Kursk region last week, to the surprise of analysts and Western allies.   "This offensive is a major gamble, especially since Russia dominates much of the frontline in Ukraine and has made significant inroads in the east," seven coauthors write for The New York Times. "If Ukrainian troops are able to hold territory, they could stretch the capacity of Russian troops, deliver a major embarrassment for Mr. Putin and get a bargaining chip for any peace negotiations. But if Russia manages to push Ukrainian troops out of Kursk and simultaneously move forward in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian military leaders could be blamed for giving the Russians an opening to gain more ground, particularly in the Donetsk region."   In the latest episode of the War on the Rocks Podcast, close Ukraine-war observers Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace consider Ukrainian strategy and tactics in the Kursk offensive. As for what we know, Kofman notes an informational lag when it comes to fast-moving operations like this one. Massicot wonders how Kyiv will manage to resupply and refuel its offensive forces if it intends to hold the Russian territory it has seized.   The Economist observes: "The short-term gains are straightforward. Vladimir Putin has been palpably embarrassed." Other initial goals likely included boosting Ukrainian morale, proving to Western allies that its defensive war effort is worth the investment, and forcing Russia to divert some of its troops to defend its own territory. "[T]he advance has moved so fast, and the Russians have been so slow to respond, that Ukraine may be rethinking objectives," the magazine writes, suggesting Kyiv could seek to hold the territory or fall back part or all of the way to the Ukrainian border.   "Ukraine's advance into Russia may yet turn out to be a turning point, a strategic blunder, or neither," writes the Financial Times' editorial board. "But achieving military success, or sufficient military gains to support effective diplomacy, sometimes requires bold throws of the dice. Not for the first time, Ukraine's president has just made one." Divided Britain Inspired by online disinformation about the perpetrator of a brutal knife attack on children in northern England, opponents of immigration took to the streets this month, clashing with police, vandalizing property, and sowing fear among Britain's Muslim minority. The unrest dragged on for days.   After about a week of national disorder, the riots gave way last week to anti-racist counterprotests. Headlines now report the jailings and sentencings of rioters and those who encouraged them online, rather than violence in the streets. "Britain's justice system has responded forcefully," The Economist proclaims, noting a 20-month sentence for a man who posted on Facebook calling for Britons to attack a Leeds hotel housing asylum seekers. That forceful response, some say, reflects positively on still-new Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who warned rioters: "You will regret taking part in this disorder."   Still, the riots left their mark.    "About every ten years, summer seems to bring mindless violence and wanton destruction to some of our streets," Financial Times columnist Camilla Cavendish noted last week before the tumult had subsided, pointing to past riots over various issues. At the London Review, Daniel Trilling wrote last week: "This time, it's worse," as the recent riots were standing out "for their geographical reach, for their viciousness and because they involve a far wider range of participants than the small groups of committed fascists who helped instigate the violence. Football hooligans, sympathisers with the anti-Islam and anti-immigration messages that have circulated online since the murders, bored kids who want to fight the police or engage in looting and curious onlookers have all joined in." Indeed, the FT's Cavendish observed that the scenes on British streets "should serve as a reminder of what fascism actually looks like." The glaring evidence of division and angst is hard to avoid. "[O]nce the current crisis is over there will need to be a rethink," Cavendish wrote: "about the desperate poverty in parts of the Midlands and the North; and about how to make the dream of social cohesion and fairness a reality."   In The New Statesman's current cover essay, Jason Crowley sounds a similar note: "[T]he hatred and division … had been revealed for all to see. Turn away in fear and loathing if you wish, but worse will follow if people's smouldering resentment about mass migration and porous borders—as well as run-down high streets, broken community services, sub-standard housing and long-standing economic neglect—are not systematically addressed. … If Keir Starmer is serious about national renewal (and he is), he will have to hit the far right hard but also find ways to include those who feel excluded ... These are not the far right but the people of peripheral England for whom democratic politics is not working, who don't vote for Labour or any other party … What do you do about these people and their anger, suffering and despair? As [French author and social geographer Christophe] Guilluy says, you can't simply wish away a whole class." Opposition Leader, Now in Hiding, on Venezuela's Vote and Future In Venezuela, election officials quickly declared authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro to have won a national vote in late July. But few seem to believe it, as the US and others have said Maduro actually lost. On Sunday's GPS, Fareed spoke with Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado—who is now in hiding—about what Venezuelans want, what should and will happen next, and the national crisis that has seen millions flee her country in recent years. Momentum Shift Vice President Kamala Harris is now "the candidate with momentum," the Financial Times' editorial board writes. Democrats have faced several problems in this election year, and Harris' candidacy appears to have solved two important ones.   For one, the party lacked enthusiasm behind President Joe Biden. Secondly, as The Atlantic's Derek Thompson told Fareed on Sunday's GPS, Democrats have faced a problem with young voters—particularly, young men. As Sam Wolfson noted in The Guardian, elections in Europe this summer saw young voters lurch toward the far right. America's Democratic Party—which typically banks on the youth vote—should beware that "chill wind" from across the Atlantic, Wolfson warned.   At The New Yorker, E. Tammy Kim reports on new dynamics since Harris became Democrats' presumptive nominee: "Whatever forbearance young Democrats and anti-Trumpers had mustered when it came to Biden is now transforming into a mix of relief and genuine zeal. … Mary-Pat Hector, the head of Rise, in Atlanta, a national nonprofit that mobilizes young voters, was getting used to a new level of energy among her staff. 'It was very difficult the past few months, prior to Biden's announcement [that he would exit the race],' she said. 'Our students were chasing down voters. Now voters are chasing organizers down, trying to get involved.'" What did you think of today's newsletter? Send ideas, questions and feedback to globalbriefing@cnn.com   You are receiving this newsletter because you signed up for Fareed's Global Briefing. 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