The Morning: America pulls back

Plus, TikTok, Haiti and deathbed visions.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story March 14, 2024 By German Lopez Good morning. We're covering the threat that Ukraine faces this year — as well as TikTok, Haiti and deathbed visions. Ukrainian soldiers. Tyler Hicks/The New York Times Ukraine's armory For two years, Ukraine has relied on American weapons to fight Russian invaders. It has bombarded Russian lines with U.S. artillery, destroyed tanks with Javelin missiles and stopped aerial attacks with Patriot launchers. But American support has sharply declined. House Republicans have blocked additional aid to Ukraine, and the Biden administration cannot send many more weapons. (The $300 million package announced this week will likely help Ukraine for only a few weeks.) Ukraine has already felt the consequences. Over the past month, Russia made some gains after it took the eastern city of Avdiivka, once a Ukrainian stronghold. Intelligence officials warned Congress this week that Ukraine's losses signal what is to come from an undersupplied war effort. Ukraine retreated because it ran out of artillery shells, the Biden administration said. These weapons have played a major role in the war; Ukraine has used them to deter and weaken Russian attacks before close combat. But with limited supplies, Ukraine's leaders sacrificed Avdiivka to save munitions for more strategic territory, such as the Black Sea coastline and the country's northeast. The chaotic retreat that followed left Ukrainian troops and civilians vulnerable. By The New York Times Russia does not have the same problem. Despite Western sanctions, its economy is humming along. It is producing weapons and supplying its troops. Its allies, particularly North Korea and Iran, have helped fill gaps. Ukraine's allies across Europe have not picked up most of the slack as American support has dwindled. European countries have promised to build up their military spending to protect themselves and one another, but that process will take years. Ukraine might not have that long. Today's newsletter will examine what the war may look like if Ukraine does not receive more American support. Growing risk For now, the war is at a stalemate, despite Avdiivka. Ukraine probably has enough supplies to hold off most Russian attacks for weeks, perhaps months. Analysts already doubted that Ukraine could carry out large offensives this year, even if it had received more aid. In the longer term, America's diminished support will likely force Ukraine to cede more land. Russian forces currently hold about 20 percent of Ukraine's former territory, and they want more. Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, recently talked about seizing what remains of Ukraine's coastline, which would strangle Ukraine's ability to send and receive shipments through the Black Sea. He also wants to take the rest of the eastern region of the Donbas, where Russia supported a separatist movement before the war. A mother and daughter in eastern Ukraine.  David Guttenfelder for The New York Times In the past, Ukraine has made Russia's victories costly. Russia endured tens of thousands of casualties to take the city of Bakhmut, which both sides called a "meat grinder." Ukraine needed plenty of munitions to parry Russia's attacks in the city for months. Today, it would run out of supplies quickly and have to flee — and Russia would suffer less for its victory. Knowing that, Russia might become more willing to push. In other words: Russia wants, and could get, more chances like Avdiivka. "Without more aid, those chances rise," my colleague Julian Barnes, who covers the war, told me. "With an aid package, the Ukrainians will have a much better chance of solidifying their defenses, holding the line. And in some places, they may be able to retake territory." No substitute The United States is not Ukraine's only ally, but it is the only one with the willingness and means to supply Ukraine's war effort. Many European nations lack a political tradition of arming other countries. They have sent Ukraine some impressive weapons, like German tanks and Swedish shoulder-fired missiles. But "they cannot pump out munitions," Julian said. "They cannot produce large numbers of artillery shell rounds — the No. 1 thing Ukraine needs." So it falls on the U.S. to supply Ukraine. President Biden and the Senate have already backed more funding. House Republicans refuse to bring it to a vote. This situation — in which narrow domestic politics could end American support for a war effort — is unusual, said Stacie Goddard, an international security expert at Wellesley College. The U.S. has abandoned war efforts in the past, typically after battlefield defeats or as the public loses trust in a cause. Neither is true for Ukraine. The war is at a stalemate, but Ukraine is not losing. And most Americans still support providing aid. Related: Read more about what a Ukraine peace deal might look like. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS TikTok Representative Mike Gallagher, a lawmaker who backs the TikTok bill.  Kent Nishimura for The New York Times The House passed a bipartisan bill that would force TikTok's Chinese owner to sell the app or face a U.S. ban. The bill heads to the Senate, where some lawmakers oppose it. TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, would need to decide whether to sell all of the app or just its U.S. business. Read more about a potential sale. A ban is more likely if TikTok can't find a buyer. The price may be tens of billions of dollars. TikTok asked dozens of influencers to travel to Washington. Some met with lawmakers and posted videos with the hashtag #KeepTikTok. TikTok's algorithms are more of a security threat than who owns the company, David Sanger writes. "This is like iPhone 'Footloose,' and there's no Kevin Bacon to save us": The late-night hosts discussed the possible ban. More on Politics A Georgia judge threw out six of the 41 criminal counts against Donald Trump and his allies in the election interference case there. He said the charges weren't specific enough. Hunter Biden rejected House Republicans' request that he testify next week. He called their impeachment inquiry into his father a "circus act." At an event in Wisconsin, Biden criticized Trump for floating Medicare and Social Security cuts. "I will never allow it to happen," Biden said. A Democratic group is airing an ad for a Trump-endorsed Republican in Ohio. It's a sign that Democrats think Trump's candidate would be easier to beat. Israel-Hamas War The Israeli military said it had bombed an aid warehouse in Rafah and killed a Hamas commander; the United Nations said the strike had also killed at least one aid worker. The military also said it had killed a senior Hamas operative in an airstrike in Lebanon. More than a million civilians have fled to Rafah, in southern Gaza. As they search for shelter and food, they worry Israel may soon invade there, too. A group of engineers risk their lives to restore Gaza's phone networks. Read about their work. International Geert Wilders Ramon Van Flymen/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Geert Wilders, a hard-right leader who won the last Dutch election, said he would forgo becoming prime minister — for now. The move may increase his chances of forming a right-wing coalition. The European Union will ban imports such as some beef and books that have been linked to deforestation. Developing countries have expressed outrage. Haiti's prime minister held on to power for years as gangs terrorized the country. He agreed to step down after the gangs united. Wildfires threaten Chile's Pacific Coast, just weeks after other blazes in the area killed more than 100 people. Education The botched rollout of a new student aid form caused officials to miss 70,000 emails. A nonbinary teenager in Oklahoma died by suicide a day after a fight in a high school girls' bathroom, a medical examiner determined. Other Big Stories In Washington, D.C. Kent Nishimura for The New York Times The National Park Service plans to remove around 140 iconic cherry trees in Washington, D.C., to build taller sea walls to protect the Jefferson Memorial. An uncrewed rocket launched by Space One, a private Japanese space company, exploded seconds after takeoff. See the video. Prosecutors charged three men with firearms trafficking as part of the investigation into the Kansas City shooting after the Super Bowl. California is prosecuting people who supply fatal doses of fentanyl. Family Dollar will close about 1,000 stores. Opinions The 2021 shooting death of a cinematographer on the set of "Rust" underscores Hollywood's disregard for gun safety, Kaj Larsen writes. For years, universities educated future citizens in whatever ways they saw fit. They need to stick to this mission, Pamela Paul argues. A year after her daughter Orli's death, Sarah Wildman considers how being a mourning parent has become her identity. After decades of inattention, legislators are finally writing laws to support child-care workers, Jessica Grose writes. Here are columns by Charles Blow on Georgia's primaries and Nicholas Kristof on Biden's opportunity to embrace populism. For readers of The Morning, enjoy exceptional savings for a limited time. Take advantage of the complete Times experience with our sale. Save on your first year of unlimited access to news, Games, Cooking and more. Subscribe now. MORNING READS In Paris.  Simbarashe Cha/The New York Times Street style: Some of the best looks at Paris Fashion Week weren't on the runways. At peace: What deathbed visions teach us about living. Happy Pi Day: The mathematical ratio is the perfect symbol for our species' long effort to tame infinity. Social Q's: "How do I get my unemployed brother out of my father's house?" Tiny battles: Some New Yorkers are fighting over control of tree beds on public streets. For some it's a rare chance to connect with nature in the city. Lives Lived: Paul Alexander spent most of his life confined to a yellow iron lung after he was paralyzed by polio at age 6. Living in the machine did not stop him from going to college and practicing law for 30 years. He died at 72. SPORTS Abbey Hsu and Lia Sammaritano on a stop during their road trip. Lia Sammaritano College basketball: Columbia's Abbey Hsu survived a mass shooting and lost her father to Covid. Now, after a gap year and a healing road trip, she's the Ivy League player of the year. N.F.L.: Calvin Ridley agreed to lucrative free agent terms with the Tennessee Titans. Because of a rare contract clause, it will cost the Falcons a high draft pick. M.L.B.: The San Diego Padres acquired Chicago White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS "Toilette," an installation by Carolyn Lazard.  Charlie Rubin for The New York Times The state of art: The Whitney Biennial opens its 81st edition this month. It is New York's most prominent showcase of new American art. Three critics previewed the show. "Their biennial is small, with just 44 artists," Jason Farago writes. He also said it is "resolutely low-risk" and "visually polite." More on culture Nazi collaborators took a Dutch masterwork from a British Jewish couple. A court in the Netherlands said the couple's relatives should get it back. They're still waiting — 17 years later. Neil Young said his music is returning to Spotify. He removed songs in 2022 to protest the company's deal with Joe Rogan. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Jenny Huang for The New York Times Make one-pot pasta with ricotta and lemon that comes together in about 15 minutes. Treat and prevent hangnails. Get work done on an iPad. Start thinking about your child's Easter basket. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was guilted. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018