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The Morning: The shaky U.S.-Israel alliance

Plus, Congress, Pakistan's elections and Constantine the Great.
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The Morning

February 8, 2024

With the Gaza war testing the U.S.-Israel relationship, my colleague Michael Crowley uses today's newsletter to explain why each partner sees the next phase so differently. — David Leonhardt

Author Headshot

By Michael Crowley

Diplomatic Correspondent, Washington

Good morning. We're also covering Congress, Pakistan's elections and Constantine the Great.

The American secretary of state shaking hands with the leader of Israel in front of a large map.
Antony Blinken and Benjamin Netanyahu. Israeli Government Press Office/EPA, via Shutterstock

An awkward dance

It's a tough time for the U.S.-Israel alliance. The death toll from the Gaza war has shaken Washington officials. President Biden wants Israel to recognize a Palestinian state, something its current government opposes. Top Israeli officials openly criticize Biden. Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, is just concluding a trip there to seek common ground — his seventh visit to the country since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks.

In today's newsletter, I'll explain the strain that the Gaza war has placed on the U.S.-Israel relationship, how serious it is and what might come next.

A deepening distrust

In the days after Hamas's surprise attack, which left about 1,100 Israelis dead, Biden and Blinken rushed to Israel. They proclaimed their support for the country and its "right to defend itself."

But the U.S. tone changed as Israel's response destroyed much of Gaza and killed at least 25,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities. Biden reportedly called the bombing "indiscriminate." He is said to be exasperated with Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who yesterday rejected Hamas's response to a new cease-fire proposal.

The American public is not happy either. Polling shows widespread disapproval of Israel's campaign and of the way Biden has handled it (although some of those who disapprove believe Biden is too hard on Israel). Younger Americans are far more sympathetic to Palestinians than older generations are.

Anger at Israel is mounting in Congress, as well. Many Democrats want an immediate cease-fire, which Israel and the Biden administration oppose.

Members of Israel's right-wing government have watched all this with mounting rage. "Instead of giving us his full backing, Biden is busy with giving humanitarian aid and fuel, which goes to Hamas," Itamar Ben-Gvir, the minister of national security, told The Wall Street Journal this week.

The coming tests

Atop all those frustrations, a new one is looming for the two countries: the long-term fate of the Palestinians.

Before Oct. 7, the Biden administration didn't do much to help create a Palestinian state, even though the U.S. has long supported the idea. But the mayhem of the past few months has convinced Biden officials that they can't wait — the status quo just isn't working. Now they say a "pathway" to such a state is a priority. In Qatar on Tuesday, Blinken said that it needed to happen quickly.

This is especially important because the Biden administration wants to broker a deal under which Saudi Arabia and Israel would normalize relations, a move that could ensure greater stability and prosperity in the Middle East. But Saudi Arabia won't agree if Israel doesn't help improve Palestinians' lives and give them a chance at statehood. Saudi rulers are concerned that anger over the issue could undermine their own support at home.

Yet Netanyahu says he will never allow the creation of such a state. His conservative allies, and many Israelis, agree.

That may not stop the White House. Sources tell me the U.S. could soon recognize a Palestinian state, albeit one with borders and other details to be determined later. One way that could happen is through a United Nations resolution that the United States would, at a minimum, not block.

The U.S.-Israel relationship has weathered storms before. Both Barack Obama and Ronald Reagan had major disagreements with the Israeli prime ministers at the time.

Still, for the first time in decades, each side is pushing ahead with little regard for what its partner wants. A U.N. vote on Palestinian statehood would be only symbolic so long as Israel occupies much of the Palestinians' territory. But it would signal that American patience with Israel on the issue had reached its lowest point in decades.

Shadowing it all is enormous political uncertainty. Biden is running for re-election against a former president who shares Netanyahu's hard line toward the Palestinians. Netanyahu is clinging to power himself. If he can outlast Biden, he may find in Donald Trump a tolerant counterpart who will reset U.S.-Israel relations — on Netanyahu's terms.

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THE LATEST NEWS

Congress

Chuck Schumer stands in an elevator, obscured by the doors. A woman wearing a red blazer peers in.
Chuck Schumer Anna Rose Layden for The New York Times
  • Senate Republicans blocked a bill that paired aid to Ukraine and Israel with new border-security policies, killing a compromise they had previously demanded.
  • Senate Democrats promised a vote today on a separate foreign aid bill without border policies.
  • Speaker Mike Johnson, around 100 days into his tenure, faced back-to-back defeats in the House this week. It highlighted the litany of issues he inherited — and his inexperience.
  • House Republicans said they would try again to impeach Alejandro Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary, after their first attempt fell one vote short.
  • A congressional committee investigating campus antisemitism accused Harvard of obstructing its work.

2024 Election

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Climate

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A monarch butterfly.  Raquel Cunha/Reuters

International

Other Big Stories

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In Lahaina. Brendan George Ko for The New York Times

Opinions

Toby Keith, who performed for presidents of both parties, showed it is possible to be political without being partisan, Michael Patrick Smith writes.

There is a reason filing U.S. taxes is such a burden, and it's not the I.R.S., Johnny Harris and Binyamin Appelbaum explain in a video.

Here are columns by Nick Kristof on children's rights and Pamela Paul on Trump's V.P. pick.

Discover more of the insight you value in The Morning.

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MORNING READS

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Edith Ceccarelli is the oldest known person in America. Alexandra Hootnick for The New York Times

Life at 116: Edith Ceccarelli has outlived her daughter, her granddaughters and both her husbands. But her neighbors adore her.

KGAY: This California radio station's call letters say it all.

The Great Read: Who invented butter chicken? Two families are fighting over it.

Nigeria: Read your way through Lagos.

Remote work tips: "I work from home and I can't focus."

Lives Lived: As the bass player and musical director for the Wailers, Aston Barrett crafted hypnotic rhythms and complex melodies that helped elevate reggae to international acclaim. He died at 77.

SPORTS

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Ella Hamlin Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Women's basketball: After T.C.U. had so many injuries that it couldn't field a team, the coaches held an open tryout for students. Now Ella Hamlin, a freshman nursing major, finds herself in a situation she never imagined.

W.N.B.A.: Candace Parker is returning to the Las Vegas Aces next season, which will be her 17th in the league.

ESPN: Nick Saban, the former Alabama coach, will be a full-time contributor to "College GameDay" next season.

N.H.L.: The Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Mikhail Sergachev left the ice on a stretcher.

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ARTS AND IDEAS

Two players wearing shorts play pickleball on a blue court. One lunges for the ball.
Pickleball in Arlington, Va. Alyssa Schukar for The New York Times

Get fit on the court: For three years in a row, pickleball has been the nation's fastest-growing sport. Selena Gomez "dinks" on the regular; so do Jenna Bush Hager and Michael Phelps. But is it a good workout?

Pickleball can boost cardiovascular health, agility and hand-eye coordination. But it doesn't build much muscle, so experts advise supplementing the sport with body-weight exercises such as squats and lunges. Here's a full workout routine.

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THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

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Christopher Testani for The New York Times

Mix blanco tequila, lime juice and carbonated mineral water to make Ranch Water.

Take a romantic trip.

Wash your comforter and your blankets.

Use these vacuums on your carpet.

GAMES

Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was girlhood.

And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

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