The Morning: The shaky U.S.-Israel alliance

Plus, Congress, Pakistan's elections and Constantine the Great.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story February 8, 2024 With the Gaza war testing the U.S.-Israel relationship, my colleague Michael Crowley uses today's newsletter to explain why each partner sees the next phase so differently. — David Leonhardt By Michael Crowley Diplomatic Correspondent, Washington Good morning. We're also covering Congress, Pakistan's elections and Constantine the Great. Antony Blinken and Benjamin Netanyahu. Israeli Government Press Office/EPA, via Shutterstock An awkward dance It's a tough time for the U.S.-Israel alliance. The death toll from the Gaza war has shaken Washington officials. President Biden wants Israel to recognize a Palestinian state, something its current government opposes. Top Israeli officials openly criticize Biden. Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, is just concluding a trip there to seek common ground — his seventh visit to the country since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks. In today's newsletter, I'll explain the strain that the Gaza war has placed on the U.S.-Israel relationship, how serious it is and what might come next. A deepening distrust In the days after Hamas's surprise attack, which left about 1,100 Israelis dead, Biden and Blinken rushed to Israel. They proclaimed their support for the country and its "right to defend itself." But the U.S. tone changed as Israel's response destroyed much of Gaza and killed at least 25,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities. Biden reportedly called the bombing "indiscriminate." He is said to be exasperated with Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who yesterday rejected Hamas's response to a new cease-fire proposal. The American public is not happy either. Polling shows widespread disapproval of Israel's campaign and of the way Biden has handled it (although some of those who disapprove believe Biden is too hard on Israel). Younger Americans are far more sympathetic to Palestinians than older generations are. Anger at Israel is mounting in Congress, as well. Many Democrats want an immediate cease-fire, which Israel and the Biden administration oppose. Members of Israel's right-wing government have watched all this with mounting rage. "Instead of giving us his full backing, Biden is busy with giving humanitarian aid and fuel, which goes to Hamas," Itamar Ben-Gvir, the minister of national security, told The Wall Street Journal this week. The coming tests Atop all those frustrations, a new one is looming for the two countries: the long-term fate of the Palestinians. Before Oct. 7, the Biden administration didn't do much to help create a Palestinian state, even though the U.S. has long supported the idea. But the mayhem of the past few months has convinced Biden officials that they can't wait — the status quo just isn't working. Now they say a "pathway" to such a state is a priority. In Qatar on Tuesday, Blinken said that it needed to happen quickly. This is especially important because the Biden administration wants to broker a deal under which Saudi Arabia and Israel would normalize relations, a move that could ensure greater stability and prosperity in the Middle East. But Saudi Arabia won't agree if Israel doesn't help improve Palestinians' lives and give them a chance at statehood. Saudi rulers are concerned that anger over the issue could undermine their own support at home. Yet Netanyahu says he will never allow the creation of such a state. His conservative allies, and many Israelis, agree. That may not stop the White House. Sources tell me the U.S. could soon recognize a Palestinian state, albeit one with borders and other details to be determined later. One way that could happen is through a United Nations resolution that the United States would, at a minimum, not block. The U.S.-Israel relationship has weathered storms before. Both Barack Obama and Ronald Reagan had major disagreements with the Israeli prime ministers at the time. Still, for the first time in decades, each side is pushing ahead with little regard for what its partner wants. A U.N. vote on Palestinian statehood would be only symbolic so long as Israel occupies much of the Palestinians' territory. But it would signal that American patience with Israel on the issue had reached its lowest point in decades. Shadowing it all is enormous political uncertainty. Biden is running for re-election against a former president who shares Netanyahu's hard line toward the Palestinians. Netanyahu is clinging to power himself. If he can outlast Biden, he may find in Donald Trump a tolerant counterpart who will reset U.S.-Israel relations — on Netanyahu's terms. For more Netanyahu rejected a Hamas cease-fire proposal and said Israeli troops would advance into Rafah, a city that has become a refuge for more than a million Palestinians. There will not be a clear line between war and peace in Gaza, even if a negotiated settlement is reached, Steven Erlanger writes. Protesters against the war in Gaza have become a regular presence outside Blinken's Northern Virginia home. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS Congress Chuck Schumer Anna Rose Layden for The New York Times Senate Republicans blocked a bill that paired aid to Ukraine and Israel with new border-security policies, killing a compromise they had previously demanded. Senate Democrats promised a vote today on a separate foreign aid bill without border policies. Speaker Mike Johnson, around 100 days into his tenure, faced back-to-back defeats in the House this week. It highlighted the litany of issues he inherited — and his inexperience. House Republicans said they would try again to impeach Alejandro Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary, after their first attempt fell one vote short. A congressional committee investigating campus antisemitism accused Harvard of obstructing its work. Ukraine could start losing the war this year if Congress fails to pass more aid. Western officials have begun discussing backup plans. 2024 Election The Supreme Court will hear arguments today about whether Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election disqualify him from serving again. Nikki Haley criticized Trump for trying to skew Republican delegate and primary rules. "It's ironic for somebody who says that the election was stolen from him," she said. Biden, who visited New York to court big donors, largely focused on Trump and framed himself as the last line of defense against his re-election. Marianne Williamson, the self-help author, suspended her long-shot primary campaign against Biden. No Republican presidential candidate has won Nevada since 2004, but it's likely to be a battleground this fall. More on Politics Florida's Supreme Court is considering whether to allow a ballot measure that would legalize abortions through about 24 weeks of pregnancy. The state legislated last year for a ban after six weeks. For a second week, U.S. deportation flights to Venezuela failed to depart as planned. The E.P.A. tightened restrictions on fine industrial particles, a common and deadly air pollutant. The special counsel investigating Biden's handling of classified documents has sent his final report to the White House, suggesting it's close to release. Climate A monarch butterfly.  Raquel Cunha/Reuters Monarch butterfly numbers in wintering areas in Mexico have hit a record low after hot, dry conditions in the U.S. and Canada reduced caterpillars' food supply. Last month was the hottest January ever measured, the E.U. climate monitor said. International The U.S. says it killed a commander of the Iran-backed militia in Iraq that officials say struck American troops in a drone attack last month. Pakistan headed to the polls in an election that human rights monitors have condemned. The military has spent months cracking down on a former prime minister's party. "We applaud the iron fist": Ecuador's war on gangs has widespread support but experts warn it could endanger civil liberties. A 43-foot statue of Constantine the Great has returned to Rome. A digital art group reconstructed it using scans of 10 fragments of the original. A volcano system in Iceland erupted for the third time since December. Other Big Stories In Lahaina. Brendan George Ko for The New York Times Six months after the Maui wildfire, businesses are still reeling and there are divisions over how much the local economy should rely on tourism. The U.S. imported more goods from Mexico than from China last year, for the first time in 20 years. Rescuers found a military helicopter that went missing in a snowy, mountainous area east of San Diego, but are still searching for the five Marines who were on board. Long Covid is less prevalent among children than adults, a study found. Symptoms can still disrupt kids' schoolwork and social lives. Opinions Toby Keith, who performed for presidents of both parties, showed it is possible to be political without being partisan, Michael Patrick Smith writes. There is a reason filing U.S. taxes is such a burden, and it's not the I.R.S., Johnny Harris and Binyamin Appelbaum explain in a video. Here are columns by Nick Kristof on children's rights and Pamela Paul on Trump's V.P. pick. Discover more of the insight you value in The Morning. The Times is filled with information and inspiration every day. So gain unlimited access to everything we offer — and save with this introductory offer. 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W.N.B.A.: Candace Parker is returning to the Las Vegas Aces next season, which will be her 17th in the league. ESPN: Nick Saban, the former Alabama coach, will be a full-time contributor to "College GameDay" next season. N.H.L.: The Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Mikhail Sergachev left the ice on a stretcher. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS Pickleball in Arlington, Va. Alyssa Schukar for The New York Times Get fit on the court: For three years in a row, pickleball has been the nation's fastest-growing sport. Selena Gomez "dinks" on the regular; so do Jenna Bush Hager and Michael Phelps. But is it a good workout? Pickleball can boost cardiovascular health, agility and hand-eye coordination. But it doesn't build much muscle, so experts advise supplementing the sport with body-weight exercises such as squats and lunges. Here's a full workout routine. More on culture Sushi Park, a modest-looking restaurant in a Los Angeles strip mall, has become an unlikely celebrity spot. Henry Timms, who led Lincoln Center and helped complete the $550 million renovation of David Geffen Hall, will step down this summer. "You know how they say, 'You're second to none?' She finished second to none": The late night hosts joked about Haley's performance in the Nevada primary. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times Mix blanco tequila, lime juice and carbonated mineral water to make Ranch Water. Take a romantic trip. Wash your comforter and your blankets. Use these vacuums on your carpet. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was girlhood. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018