The Morning: Trump’s nostalgia bump

Plus, the Middle East, Ukraine and Salman Rushdie.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story April 15, 2024 Good morning. My colleague Ian Prasad Philbrick looks at the nostalgia that surrounds former presidents. We're also covering the Middle East, Ukraine and Salman Rushdie. — David Leonhardt Donald Trump Doug Mills/The New York Times The nostalgia bump By Ian Prasad Philbrick He is a writer for The Morning. President Trump left office wildly unpopular. But in the past few years, some voters' opinions about him have improved. Support for how Trump handled key issues as president — including the economy, and law and order — has risen by about six percentage points since 2020, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll. A plurality of voters, 42 percent, now say the Trump years were "mostly good" for the country. Only a quarter say the same of President Biden's tenure. Biden says he finds the nostalgia "amazing," and at a time when Trump is a defendant in four criminal cases, it may seem surprising. But former presidents often enjoy more positive assessments from voters in retrospect. The difference this year is that, for the first time in decades, a former president is running to reclaim his old office. Today, I'll explain why voter nostalgia seems to be helping Trump, and how that might change. A longstanding pattern Decades ago, the polling firm Gallup started asking Americans what they thought about past presidents. The results revealed a pattern: Almost everyone Gallup asked about, from John F. Kennedy to Trump, enjoyed higher approval ratings after leaving office than he did while holding it, as this chart by my colleague Ashley Wu shows. Source: Gallup | By The New York Times One explanation is political. As presidents leave office, partisan attacks recede. Some presidents, like Jimmy Carter, become well known for philanthropy or other good works. "You kind of move, as an ex-president, from being a political figure to someone who is above the fray," Jeff Jones, a Gallup senior editor, told me. Another explanation is historical. As years pass, popular culture and collective memory come to shape Americans' views of presidents — especially for those too young to remember the actual events. History textbooks, for instance, tend to focus more "on the good things they did than the bad things, the historical contributions that they made as president rather than scandals or poor decisions or poor policies," Jones said. There are psychological explanations, too. Human memory is fallible. People often experience their current problems more acutely than they recall their past ones or think better of experiences in retrospect, which psychologists call recency bias. That can lead to a perpetual yearning for the supposed good old days. A political boon In Trump's case, the result seems to be that voters are focused more on the inflation, record border crossings and overseas wars of the Biden years than on the administrative chaos, pandemic and insurrection of the Trump years. Voters "know about what they don't like about Biden, and they have forgotten what they don't like about Trump," Sarah Longwell, a Republican consultant, told The Times. Changes of three points or less are not considered statistically significant. | Based on New York Times/Siena College polls in the fall of 2020 and April 2024 Those more positive assessments may be one reason Trump has led Biden in most polls this year. In a Times/Siena survey from February, more than twice as many voters said that Trump's policies had helped them personally as said that Biden's had. Trump's post-presidency bump may also suggest that voters have forgotten, or forgiven, the turmoil of his final weeks in office. Not all of Trump's predecessors recovered in this way. Richard Nixon's approval ratings plummeted before he resigned during Watergate, and they never bounced back. But in Gallup's polling, voters' assessment of Trump's presidency has rebounded to where it was in October 2020, before Trump tried to overturn his re-election defeat and before the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Will it last? Approval ratings can change. In particular, they can decline when a campaign begins. Hillary Clinton's favorability spiked when she was first lady and secretary of state but fell when she ran for president. To flatten Trump's nostalgia bump, the Biden campaign plans to run millions of dollars in ads reminding voters what they disliked about Trump's presidency. One recent spot interspersed video of empty store shelves from 2020 with a clip of Trump wondering if Americans should inject disinfectant to treat Covid. Biden's approach may already be working; the new Times/Siena poll shows that he has cut Trump's national lead to just one point. Democrats have reasons to hope that higher approval ratings alone won't win Trump a second term, even as Biden's remain low. In Gallup's poll, most Americans still disapproved of Trump and how he governed, even in hindsight. And as November nears, voters may focus more on what Trump plans to do if he regains the White House than on what he did last time. But in an election that's likely to be very close, even a small afterglow could matter. More on the poll Biden has begun to win back some of the Black and Latino voters who supported him in 2020. Most voters remain pessimistic about the economy. See the full poll results. How can 1,000 people represent the country's views? Read about how The Times and Siena College gets an accurate sample. More on 2024 Trump's criminal case in Manhattan — about a hush-money payment — goes to trial today. The Jan. 6 riots are central to Trump's campaign. He opens his rallies with a recording of defendants singing the national anthem from their jail cells. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS Middle East Weapon fragments in Israel.  Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times Israel is considering retaliation for Iran's missile attack. World leaders are urging restraint. Benjamin Netanyahu faces a delicate calculation: He could look weak if he doesn't respond, but he risks a broader war with retaliation. Iran's strikes against Israel were a choreographed spectacle intended to cause maximum drama but minimal damage, experts say. The attack highlights how clashes in the Middle East are getting harder to contain, Alissa Rubin and Vivian Nereim write. "I'm afraid of war": In Iran, some fear upheaval. Others have vowed to fight. More International News Workers in Nepal. Uma Bista for The New York Times Japan can no longer source the traditional paper it needs to produce its bank notes at home. Nepalese farmers have stepped in. A war between two military factions in Sudan has brought widespread hunger and driven about 8.6 million people from their homes. In western Ukraine, some men swim across a dangerous river toward Romania to avoid the draft. Alarm is rising in Germany about links between a far-right party and Russia. Business and Economy Inflation has made some Americans feel economically insecure — even when they've gotten big raises. Many Americans are reluctant to give up the low fixed-rate mortgages they secured during the pandemic, even if they want to move. Congress is targeting a Chinese company that makes cancer drugs over potential security breaches. The scrutiny has rattled the pharmaceutical industry. The Biden administration awarded $6 billion to Samsung for domestic semiconductor production. Other Big Stories Mary Moriarty Jenn Ackerman for The New York Times Minneapolis's top prosecutor promised to overhaul criminal justice. She now faces criticism, including from fellow Democrats. Bonobos have a peaceful reputation, but a new study found they act aggressively more often than their chimpanzee cousins. Opinions Iran just made a big mistake in its attack. Israel shouldn't retaliate, Thomas Friedman writes. Israel has every moral and legal right to retaliate against Iran. But it can get revenge without starting a broader war, Bret Stephens argues. China wants to negotiate a nuclear treaty with the United States. The Biden administration should take it seriously, W.J. Hennigan writes. Here is a column by David French on his relationship with masculinity. A subscription to match the variety of your interests. News. Games. Recipes. Product reviews. Sports reporting. A New York Times All Access subscription covers all of it and more. Subscribe today. MORNING READS In New York. Todd Heisler/The New York Times Sumo: At Madison Square Garden, New Yorkers got to watch a sport that's rarely seen stateside. Australia: Scientists are trying to save the koala in unusual ways, including with tree-planting drones. Roses are red, violets are blue: Read why one bouquet costs $72. Reverence: Lincoln's murder is often re-enacted, but not at Ford's Theater. Ask Vanessa: "Should I dress to cover up my scars or show them off?" Metropolitan Diary: A Greek epic on the Uptown local. Lives Lived: Don Wright was a two-time Pulitzer Prize-winning editorial cartoonist who commented wryly on war and segregation. He died at 90. SPORTS Golf: Scottie Scheffler won the Masters by four strokes, securing his second green jacket in three years. N.B.A.: The regular season had its final weekend. Here's what to know about the playoffs. Live from New York: Caitlin Clark appeared on "Saturday Night Live" where she received a 20-second ovation. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS Jeffrey Gibson in his studio in Hudson, N.Y. Elliott Jerome Brown Jr. for The New York Times Later this week, the artist Jeffrey Gibson's paintings and sculptures will fill the American Pavilion at the Venice Biennale. His works will feature geometric patterns and political references to Indigenous struggles and American history. Gibson — who is Choctaw and Cherokee — is the first Native American artist to exhibit at the pavilion solo. Read more about the exhibition. More on culture Salman Rushdie  Clément Pascal for The New York Times In "Knife," Salman Rushdie addresses the 2022 attack that blinded him in one eye. He also details how his wife supported his recovery. "I wanted to write a book which was about both love and hatred — one overcoming the other," he told The Times. Hundreds of survivors of the 2017 bombing of an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester, England, have taken legal action against Britain's intelligence services for not doing more to prevent the attack, The Guardian reports. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Julia Gartland for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Monica Pierini. Roast lemony chicken with potatoes for an easy weeknight dinner. Stream a science fiction movie. Advocate for yourself at the dentist. Read this before filing your tax return. Download a free video game. Complete this checklist when adopting a cat. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangrams were nighttime and theming. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — Ian Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018