China has voiced "deep concern" over escalating tensions in the Middle East after Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles in an unprecedented attack on Israel, raising the prospect of a wider conflagration in a region where Beijing has pledged to play peacemaker and promote its own security vision.
"(China) calls on relevant parties to exercise calm and restraint to prevent further escalation," the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Sunday, framing the latest tensions as "a spillover from the Gaza conflict" – which it said should be put to an end as soon as possible.
"China calls on the international community, especially countries with influence, to play a constructive role for the peace and stability of the region," the ministry added.
The Iranian strikes, which Tehran said were retaliation for the bombing of an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus on April 1, marked the first time the Islamic Republic has launched a direct assault on Israel from its soil.
The decision by Iran's leaders to strike at Israel directly has pushed the shadow war between the two regional foes into the open. Israel is being urged by Western allies to de-escalate, as fears grow of an all-out regional war – a scenario Washington has sought to enlist Beijing's help to avoid.
Following the Damascus strike, which Iran said killed seven people, including two top Iranian military commanders, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to China's top diplomat Wang Yi – and other counterparts in Turkey and Saudi Arabia – to "make clear that escalation is not in anyone's interest, and that countries should urge Iran not to escalate," according to a US State Department spokesperson.
That was not the first time the US had asked China to influence Iran since the war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas broke out last October.
In the wake of Houthi rebels' assaults on commercial shipping in the Red Sea late last year, American officials repeatedly tried to prod Beijing into pressuring Tehran – which is believed to train, fund and equip the Houthis – to rein in the attacks.
The latest flare-up of tensions has again raised questions over how much leverage China wields over Iran – and whether Beijing is willing to turn its political capital into influence.
"On paper, China has a great deal of potential leverage over Iran," said William Figueroa, an assistant professor at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands.
China has been Iran's biggest trading partner for the past decade and buys 90% of Iran's oil exports, providing a lifeline to Tehran against US sanctions. Chinese companies also provide Iran with security and surveillance equipment.
In practice, however, it is difficult for China to pull these levers to influence Iran's behavior, Figueroa said.
"Weaponizing these trade relations, especially in such a high-profile way, would undermine its greater regional strategy of developing close economic ties throughout the Global South."
China has greatly expanded its economic and political footprint in the Middle East. In recent years, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has vowed to "contribute Chinese wisdom to promoting peace and tranquility in the Middle East" as part of his Global Security Initiative to offer an alternative to the Western-led security order.
Last year, Beijing brokered a historic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two longtime regional rivals, but reining in Iran in the ongoing conflict could prove a thornier task for China, analysts say.
Relations between Beijing and Tehran are already strained by China's "chronic underinvestment in Iran" despite repeated promises, and previous attempts to influence Iranian policy over the Houthi attacks, Figueroa said.
"While happy to play a role in negotiations, the reality is they lack real coercive power in the region and remain primarily interested in trade and diplomatic initiatives. They are aware of this and not eager to overextend themselves the way they believe the US has done."
Keep reading about China's influence over Iran.
More on Beijing's ambitions in the Middle East.
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