Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Sign up here. January 16, 2024 | |
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The Trump Train Leaves the Station |
If there was any doubt about GOP support for Donald Trump, the Iowa caucuses dispelled it.
After the former president's commanding victory in Iowa on Monday, New York Times political reporters Michael C. Bender and Katie Glueck argue in the Times' lead piece of post-caucus analysis that Trump's connection to his supporters is "the most durable force in American politics" today, as their headline declares. Bender and Glueck hear from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has advised Trump, that the former president "is not a candidate, he's the leader of a national movement. … No one has come to grips with what's it like to take on the champion of a movement. That's why even as all these legal issues pile up, it just infuriates his movement and increases their anger unbelievably."
As for how Trump has solidified his hold, some point to shortcomings of his GOP rivals. Before the Iowa contest, The Atlantic's Ronald Brownstein observed the caucuses had "lacked energy because Trump's shrinking field of rivals has never appeared to have the heart for making an all-out case against him." More Republican voters were likely open to a Trump alternative, one longtime GOP activist suggested to Brownstein, but neither Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis nor former South Carolina Gov. and former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley found the right message to win them over. When nearly all the Republican presidential candidates raised their hands on a debate stage in August, to indicate they'd support Trump even if he were "convicted in a court of law," they "effectively placed the question of whether Trump is fit to be president again—the most important issue facing Republicans in 2024—out of bounds," Brownstein argued.
To some observers, the GOP appears static. At The Spectator, Freddy Gray mused that Iowa's frigid weather was "also a handy metaphor for the frozen state of Republican politics," with Trump firmly in place as the party's leader. At The Washington Post, conservative columnist Ramesh Ponnuru laments that so far, "the 2024 presidential campaign has done nothing to resolve a long-deferred debate over what it means to be a Republican. ... For nearly a decade, the central question of our politics … has been: What do you think of Donald Trump? The longer they have fixated on that question, the harder it has become for Republicans to answer other ones."
Not everyone is so convinced of Trump's inevitability as the 2024 GOP presidential nominee. Before Iowa Republicans caucused, Charlie Mahtesian wrote for Politico Magazine that the 2024 Republican primary "smells a bit like 2016, when there was near unanimity in the press and the political class that (Trump) didn't have a shot in hell (in the general election) against Hillary Clinton." Envisioning a narrow path for Haley to win the nomination—one that runs through New Hampshire, the next state where Republicans will vote—Mahtesian wrote: "If we've learned anything, it's that the laws of political gravity or axioms about elected politics don't always apply anymore. Traditional voting habits have been thrown out the window. Polling has proved unreliable. And yet here we are, again, operating with utter certainty that the GOP primary is already cooked." |
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Where Is the Houthi Conflict Heading? |
The US–UK standoff with Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militants continues, as the group has struck more cargo ships and as the US has responded with more strikes in Yemen. The group has obstructed shipping in the Red Sea, ostensibly in reaction to Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza.
At The Atlantic, Arash Azizi notes the Houthis' "tradition of fierce independence" and wonders how much pressure Iran will be willing to apply to rein them in. In an interview at CNN Opinion, Peter Bergen hears from Yemen expert Elisabeth Kendall that the Houthis have been able to withstand heavy Saudi bombardment during Yemen's civil war and are likely to weather US–UK strikes; that they view war "as a way of life"; and that although the Houthis have grown closer to Iran, it's not clear that Iran can really control them. "They're not a direct proxy, and Iran has no command and control directly," Kendall says. "Of course, it would hamper their cause significantly if Iran stopped supplying them with weapons, but it wouldn't stop them." |
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Taiwan, After the Election |
On Saturday Taiwanese voters kept the island's ruling DPP party in power, elevating Vice President Lai Ching-te to president, despite Beijing's warnings. So far, minor geopolitical consequences have been evident: Taiwan lost diplomatic recognition from the tiny Pacific Island nation Nauru, which said it had severed ties with Taipei. (Taiwan has been engaged in a long diplomatic struggle with mainland China for recognition by other countries around the world.) Amid expectations of stepped-up Chinese military exercises if Lai won, the South China Morning Post's Jack Lau reports: "After a brief lull around the elections on the weekend, the People's Liberation Army has resumed military activities around Taiwan—although not at higher levels."
At the Financial Times, an editorial urges calm on all sides: "The current geopolitical balance around Taiwan is both incendiary and fragile. But it remains immeasurably preferable to the alternative: the eruption of conflict across the straits that could escalate into superpower war." At The New Statesman, Katie Stallard foresaw an impact on US–China relations, writing before the vote: "Rather than acknowledging the agency of the people of Taiwan and the role its own aggression has played in driving them away, China will likely respond to a Lai victory by lashing out at the US, reversing the recent progress between the two nations made when (Chinese leader) Xi (Jinping) met with (US President) Joe Biden in San Francisco in November." |
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As Israel wages war on Hamas, in retaliation for the terrorist group's horrific Oct. 7 massacres of Israeli civilians, it faces accusations of pursuing genocide against Palestinians. On Sunday's GPS, Fareed argued these charges, brought by South Africa in the International Court of Justice, are "invalid"—while also suggesting the human toll of Israel's military campaign, and public comments including one by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, raise important questions about whether Israel has taken sufficient care to safeguard civilian life in Gaza.
"Israel is a democracy and an open society," Fareed said, "and precisely because of that it will one day have to ask itself whether it acted appropriately in the heat of its anger and sorrow after Oct. 7. Friends of Israel should help it ask those questions now, so that it does not look back on this episode with shame and regret." |
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Inflation Comes for Japan? |
For decades, Japan's main economic problem has been the opposite of what's plaguing Western economies today: deflation. Annual price changes turned negative in Japan in 1995 and have coupled with relatively slow GDP growth. Having tried long and hard to solve the problem—through low interest rates, negative interest rates, and purchases of Japanese government bonds—the Bank of Japan has finally succeeded, Tokyo-based journalist William Sposato writes for Foreign Policy, as Japanese inflation has edged up toward the central bank's 2% target.
Now that inflation has arrived in Japan, Sposato writes, "the verdict is in: People don't like it. … According to government figures, real wages fell for 20 consecutive months up to November 2023, registering a 3 percent decline year-on-year. … Indeed, while deflation has had policymakers gnashing their teeth as Japan became relatively poorer (some tech jobs pay better in Vietnam than in Japan today), it was good for salaried workers who saw their pay rise modestly while prices would fall around 1 percent annually. … The sticker shock of rising prices has been an unwanted blow to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who is facing a crisis in confidence for no clear reason—except that people don't seem to like his administration. Kishida and U.S. President Joe Biden could no doubt commiserate on that front." |
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