The Morning: Trump’s big win in Iowa

Plus, the Houthis, severe weather and the Emmys.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story January 16, 2024 I'm turning over today's newsletter to Nate Cohn, The Times's chief political analyst, to explain last night's results in Iowa. — David Leonhardt By Nate Cohn Chief political analyst Good morning. We're covering the Republican nomination campaign — as well as the Houthis, severe weather and the Emmys. Donald Trump Doug Mills/The New York Times Trump takes Iowa If there was any question whether Donald Trump was on track to win the Republican nomination, it was answered Monday night by the voters of Iowa. The first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses delivered him a sweeping victory, offering the most concrete proof yet of his dominance over the Republican Party. With nearly all the votes counted, Trump's share was 51 percent. Ron DeSantis finished a distant second at 21 percent, with Nikki Haley at 19 percent. (See maps of the results.) The result is not surprising or even unexpected, but Trump's victory is still noteworthy. A year ago, Iowa looked more difficult for the former president. In an upset eight years ago, Iowa voters rejected Trump in favor of Ted Cruz. And unlike the rest of the country, the Iowa political establishment has refused to get in line behind Trump. Not only did he win in a landslide anyway, but his 30-point margin of victory set a record for a contested Iowa Republican caucus. Better still for Trump, neither DeSantis nor Haley posted a strong second-place showing that might have bestowed clear momentum for future races. If anything, DeSantis's second-place finish might dampen Haley's momentum heading into New Hampshire. How he won Trump's decisive victory was built on his usual — if still remarkable — strengths among working-class and rural voters, who made up a preponderance of the Iowa electorate. In county after county across the Iowa countryside, Trump obtained more than 60 percent of the vote — and sometimes 70 percent — with his rivals languishing in the teens or single digits. He also excelled among white evangelical Christians and self-described "very conservative" voters — two groups that held him back here eight years ago. It's a coalition that naturally gives him a commanding advantage in a party that's disproportionately conservative, working class, evangelical and rural. It was enough for him to win all but one of the state's counties, with his one defeat by a single vote in Johnson County. A disappointment for DeSantis DeSantis's finish is a serious setback to his already ailing candidacy. He seemed like a perfect fit for Iowa, as the caucus electorate usually favors ideologically conservative candidates. He followed the winning caucus playbook, including campaigning in all 99 counties and earning high-profile endorsements from the state's governor, many other elected Republicans in the state and prominent evangelical leaders. None of it seemed to make a difference. The road ahead for him is bleak. No upcoming contest plainly offers DeSantis a better chance of victory, and his poll numbers are even weaker in the states ahead. If he can't compete in Iowa, it's hard to imagine where he can. It has raised the question of whether he will continue in the race, though he has said he's staying in. Either way, Haley has overtaken DeSantis as Trump's nearest, if still distant, rival. Haley's path forward For Haley, the third-place finish is a disappointment but not dire. She showed important strength among college-educated, independent and suburban voters, who have long been Trump's greatest skeptics. She defeated Trump by a comfortable margin in precincts where most residents held a four-year college degree. She also won 64 percent of self-described moderates. Haley's strength among moderates and college graduates wasn't enough for second in Iowa, as several late polls suggested, but voters like these will represent a much larger share of later primary electorates. It might just be enough for her to compete in relatively well-educated states with larger numbers of independent voters, including New Hampshire next week — where the polls already show a close and tightening race. But the results also confirmed that her appeal is extraordinarily narrow, all but confined to those moderate and highly educated voters. She routinely failed to reach 10 percent of the vote in rural, working-class precincts. The entrance polls found that she won just 9 percent among voters who never attended college. College-educated and independent voters can only take a candidate so far in a working-class Republican Party. It certainly didn't take her very far in Iowa on Monday night. There is no path for Haley to win the nomination without greatly expanding her appeal. More on Iowa In his victory speech, Trump struck an uncharacteristically upbeat tone. "I want to congratulate Ron and Nikki," he said. "I think they both actually did very well." Haley congratulated Trump but made the case that the country did not want another Trump-Biden election: "Both lack a vision for our country's future because both are consumed by the past, by investigations, by vendettas, by grievances," she said. Vivek Ramaswamy, the 38-year-old entrepreneur, dropped out of the race after finishing fourth. DeSantis and his allies bashed the news media for calling the race a half-hour after the caucuses began, which they said might have biased Iowans who had not yet cast a vote. Far fewer Iowans voted last night than in 2016. The frigid weather likely kept turnout low. Read five takeaways from the caucuses. Trump's connection with his supporters is one of the most durable forces in American politics, Michael Bender and Katie Glueck write. Commentary The battle between DeSantis and Haley for second place doesn't matter: The general election has already started, Times Opinion's Michelle Goldberg writes. The wishful thinking that someone can stop Trump from winning the nomination is coming to an end, Karen Tumulty writes in The Washington Post. Elevating Haley over DeSantis as the non-Trump candidate only makes a Trump victory easier, Times Opinion's Ross Douthat writes. Trump's win "serves as an endorsement of the constant drumbeat for vengeance that Trump has made the centerpiece of his campaign," MSNBC's Hayes Brown writes. 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THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … David Malosh for The New York Times Treat yourself to a breakfast of spiced Irish oatmeal with heavy cream and crunchy Demerara sugar. Develop healthy habits with these tools. Start thinking about Valentine's Day with gifts for him and her. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was hoodwink. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. 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