The Morning: What polls say about immigration

Plus, China's population, Yemen and New York City's snow.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story January 17, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering Americans' views on immigration — as well China's population, Yemen and New York City's snow. Border fencing in El Paso, Texas. Todd Heisler/The New York Times A 2024 vulnerability I keep a running list of issues on which either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is out of step with public opinion. For Republicans, abortion now tops my list, followed by Donald Trump's attitudes toward democracy. For Democrats, I think immigration policy has moved to the top of the list. In a newsletter last week, I described the shift in the Democratic Party's immigration policy over the past decade. Before Trump ran for president, Democrats tended to combine passionate support for many forms of immigration with a belief in strong border security. But Trump's harsh anti-immigration stance pushed the party toward the opposite end of the spectrum. Today, many Democratic politicians are willing to accept high levels of undocumented immigration and oppose enforcement measures that the party once favored. Some Democrats, especially on the left, argue that the government doesn't even have the power to reduce migration much. This shift has created political vulnerabilities for Democrats — because most Americans are closer to the party's old position than to its new one. Today, I'll walk through public opinion on the issue. 'A serious problem' The first thing to know is that views on immigration aren't static. During Trump's presidency, Americans became more favorable to immigration, evidently in reaction to Trump's opposition to it. Consider this: By the end of his presidency, the number of Americans who favored increasing immigration exceeded the number who favored decreasing it for the first time in six decades of Gallup polling. Source: Gallup | Latest data is from a June 2023 survey of 1,013 U.S. adults. That trend has since reversed, as you can see in the chart. The biggest reason seems to be a surge of illegal immigration during President Biden's term. One cause of that surge has been the Biden administration's approach. Many would-be migrants now believe — correctly — that so long as they can reach U.S. soil, they will be able to stay for years. In response, the number of Americans who say that illegal immigration is a serious problem has risen, according to YouGov: Source: YouGov | Latest data is from a December 2023 survey of 1,000 U.S. adults. To reduce these migration flows, congressional Republicans are pushing for new border policies. Democrats often criticize the proposals as extreme, but many are quite popular. Polls frequently find majority support for a border wall, for instance, especially when the question doesn't mention Trump's name. In a recent New York Times/Siena College survey of six battleground states, 53 percent of respondents favored a wall, compared with 44 percent who opposed one. A recent Fox News survey (and, yes, other pollsters respect Fox's polling) found majority support for several other enforcement measures, too: Source: Fox News poll of 1,007 registered voters in December 2023. I don't mean to suggest that the Democratic Party's shift on immigration is simply about Trump. It's part a larger story — namely, the class inversion of American politics, in which the Democratic Party increasingly reflects the views of socially liberal professionals. On immigration, these affluent, highly educated voters tend to favor more open policies, while working-class voters prefer less immigration. Race plays a nuanced role in these views. White voters do tend to be more skeptical of immigration than Asian, Black and Hispanic voters. But a large chunk of voters of color, especially working-class voters, also favor tighter border security than many leading Democrats do. Immigration appears to be one reason, among many, that Biden's support among voters of color has deteriorated. Source: NYT/Siena College poll of 3,662 registered voters in six battleground states in October/November 2023. During the past few years — as Democrats have changed their approach to immigration — Republicans have made gains with Asian, Black and Hispanic voters. Some of the biggest gains have come in the border areas of Texas (as this Times map shows). Among Hispanic voters, illegal immigration is one of the Democratic Party's weakest issues, along with crime and the economy, a Times poll in 2022 found; the party's strongest issues include abortion, climate, student debt cancellation and Trump's criminal charges. Democrats assumed that a more open immigration policy would help increase their support among voters of color. Instead, the opposite has happened. The rule of law Even with all their current concerns, Americans are not opposed to immigration. Most say that legal immigrants strengthen the country, and many believe the U.S. should remain a haven for people fleeing repression. But most Americans also think that the country's immigration laws should mean something and that citizens of other countries should not be able to enter this country simply because they want to. Today's Democratic Party is often uncomfortable taking a firm position on immigration. As a result, the issue has become a problem for Biden's re-election campaign — and an advantage for Trump. Related: Migrants in New York camped in snow, waiting for identification cards they hoped would help them find work. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS China The Liangma River in Beijing. Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times China's population has shrunk and its birthrate has continued to fall despite government efforts to encourage women to have more babies. The Chinese economy grew last year, but its longer-term growth is slowing in part because of high debt and a shrinking work force. China has restarted measuring youth unemployment — this time with different criteria that lowered the figure. Middle East The Biden administration plans to return the Houthis to a list of terrorist groups. The U.S. struck Houthi targets in Yemen for the third time, destroying missiles the military said were a threat to ships in the Red Sea. Two missing Navy SEALs were part of an operation to seize Iranian weapons bound for Yemen, the Pentagon said. Iran hit Pakistan and Iraq with airstrikes. Iran said it was targeting terrorists behind recent attacks, but Pakistan and Iraq said the strikes had killed civilians. War in Gaza The Israeli military is trying to take control of the tunnels under Khan Younis, in southern Gaza, The Wall Street Journal reports. The area is crowded with refugees. Qatar said it had brokered a deal between Israel and Hamas that will allow medication to be delivered to hostages in return for additional humanitarian aid to Gaza. 2024 Election As Republican candidates campaign across New Hampshire, Nikki Haley is focusing on independents, who can vote in the primary there next Tuesday. ABC News canceled a debate scheduled for Thursday in New Hampshire, after Haley refused to attend unless Trump also participated. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent, is trying to create his own political party in an effort to get on the ballot in six states. White House officials believe a Trump rematch is Biden's best chance of winning re-election, Peter Baker writes. More on Politics Trump's lawyers plan to accuse the intelligence community of bias in the classified documents case, court filings show. Donald Trump visited New York for the start of a second defamation suit filed by E. Jean Carroll. In Congress, top Democrats and Republicans agreed on a plan to expand the child tax credit and restore business tax breaks, but the deal faces a difficult path to become law. The Senate took the first step in advancing a stopgap spending bill to avoid a partial government shutdown at the end of the week. Business Elon Musk demanded more than $80 billion in additional stock from Tesla's board and threatened to work on projects elsewhere. A federal judge blocked JetBlue from acquiring Spirit Airlines. The Justice Department had argued against the merger. E.V. batteries struggle in very cold weather, leading to long lines and frustration at charging stations. Other Big Stories Brooklyn. Brittainy Newman for The New York Times New York City went 701 days without significant snowfall. That run ended yesterday. A New Zealand lawmaker quit after video was published of her allegedly shoplifting. Two Malaysian prisoners at Guantánamo Bay pleaded guilty to conspiring in the 2002 nightclub bombings in Bali, Indonesia. Opinions The U.S. needs to prioritize its own interests and pressure Israel to avoid a wider war, Daniel Levy, a former Israeli peace negotiator, writes. The charges of genocide against Israel are a moral obscenity that dilute the term's power, Bret Stephens writes. Popular support for Taiwanese democracy in both the U.S. and Taiwan is risking a Chinese invasion, Michael Beckley writes. All of The Times. All in one subscription. Enjoy unlimited access to everything we offer — with this introductory offer. You'll benefit from more of the insights that you find in The Morning, every morning. MORNING READS Bobi in February 2023. Patricia De Melo Moreira/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images 31 years, 5 months: A man in Portugal claimed to have the world's oldest dog. After widespread skepticism, though, his Guinness record is in doubt. New York: For most of his life, Hakim Jeffrey's only connections to Representative Hakeem Jeffries were Brooklyn and their names. Then they crossed paths. Lives Lived: Despite working in a political town removed from the coastal entertainment capitals, Tom Shales wielded enormous influence during his three-decade career as The Washington Post's chief television critic. He died at 79. SPORTS N.F.L.: The Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh interviewed for the Atlanta Falcons' coaching vacancy. And Mike Tomlin, the Pittsburgh Steelers coach, told players he would return to the team for next season, quieting doubts about his future. Sport switch: The 22-year-old Welsh rugby star Louis Rees-Zammit is leaving the sport to attempt a career in the N.F.L. Lawsuit: A woman accused James Dolan, the businessman behind Madison Square Garden and the New York Knicks, of pressuring her into unwanted sex. Dolan denied the allegations. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS The cast of "Succession." Aude Guerrucci/Reuters Congrats and goodbye: Between 2010 and 2023, the number of TV shows in the U.S. rose almost every year. But after a year of strikes and shrinking studio profits, Hollywood executives have pulled back. Monday's Emmy Awards ceremony "felt in many ways like a bookend to the so-called Peak TV era," The Times's John Koblin writes. "There is a good chance that television may start to look a lot like television from a couple of decades ago." More on culture Nelson Mandela's daughter will auction some of his belongings after winning a legal battle with the South African government, which claimed they were national artifacts. "If you've ever wondered what is the polar opposite of M.L.K. Day, it is the Iowa Republican caucus": The late-night hosts joked about Trump's victory. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Andrew Purcell for The New York Times Prepare crisp gnocchi with brussels sprouts and brown butter in 20 minutes. Learn a new language. It may by beneficial for brain health in old age. Ride out winter storms with these tools. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram were littleneck and telekinetic. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018