Good morning. We're covering the presidential horse race, and we admit it. We also have the latest on the apparent Trump assassination attempt, the war in Ukraine and personalized drinks.
Respecting votersThe term "horse race" tends to have a negative meaning in politics. People use it to describe an obsession with polls rather than what really matters — issues, policies, an election's stakes. Here at The Morning, we believe in focusing on issues. We have written dozens of such newsletters this year, often tied to other Times coverage. We recently started a series called The Stakes, highlighting the huge differences between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. We're policy nerds, and we are proud of it. Today, though, I want to explain why the horse race also matters. Politicians and voters who dismiss poll results as superficial risk ignoring political reality — and taking polls seriously can bring enormous benefits. The past few years have been a case study, mostly involving the Democratic Party. Today's newsletter focuses on three examples. 1. Trump's 2020 defeatWhen the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination began, the party's left flank was ascendant. Trump's extremism had radicalized many Democrats in the opposite direction. Progressives, especially the college graduates who staff campaigns and think tanks, wanted to decriminalize border crossings, ban fracking, abolish private health insurance and defund the police. The party's presidential candidates embraced at least some of these positions, even though they were never broadly popular. And they never became popular, despite the passionate arguments that advocates made. Instead, Democrats seemed to be on the verge of nominating a candidate with unpopular views and helping Trump win re-election. One major candidate, however, adopted fewer of these positions and still had a moderate image: Joe Biden. Polls showed that he would be a stronger opponent against Trump than other Democrats. Here's one example, from a Times chart published in late 2019:
Democratic voters took note. They backed Biden's campaign, with many citing his electability, and he won the nomination. Primary voters in South Carolina, disproportionately Black and working class, played a vital role. Had Democratic voters disregarded the horse race, Trump might now be in the eighth year of his presidency. 2. The 2024 campaignFour years later, Biden had become a much weaker candidate. At 81, he walked stiffly and couldn't always communicate clearly. The White House minimized his public appearances. Many Americans found it unsettling. Polls repeatedly showed that most voters considered him too old to serve a second term and that Trump was likely to win in November. Nonetheless, Democratic leaders insisted that Biden was doing just fine — energetic and vigorous behind the scenes, they claimed — and urged people to ignore the horse-race polls. Then came Biden's miserable debate performance. Even afterward, Biden initially refused to leave the race, but other Democrats began to accept reality. They pushed him out partly by confronting him with poll results. As Nate Cohn, The Times's chief political analyst, wrote, "Democrats are extraordinarily fortunate that the early debate gave them an unprecedented second chance to act on what the voters had already been telling them for a year." Had Democrats continued to dismiss this year's horse race as a distraction, they would probably be on course to lose it badly. 3. 2024, reduxOnce Harris replaced Biden as the nominee, the polls shifted. She was in fact an energetic, vigorous candidate. Still, she had a problem. She was one of those 2020 candidates who had adopted unpopular positions on immigration, fracking and more. Her 2020 campaign fared so badly that she dropped out before the first caucus. This year, by contrast, Harris has been more respectful of public opinion. She has reversed several stances, and she portrays herself as a tough patriot who will fight for the American middle class. These positions have helped her shrink Biden's deficit with swing voters, and she is running virtually even with Trump. She may yet lose the election. Trump's campaign can read the polls too, and its ads emphasize both Harris's past statements and the Biden administration's record on inflation and immigration. Many swing voters say they don't yet know enough about Harris and are worried she is too liberal, Nate has explained. The next big question is whether Harris will take a clear lead following her strong debate last week. I am comfortable making one prediction: To understand the strategies that the campaigns adopt over the final two months, you will need to keep an eye on the polls. The bottom lineIt's obviously possible for politicians (as well as journalists and voters) to pay too much attention to the horse race. Any politician who adopted an agenda based only on poll results would not be demonstrating leadership. And polls are obviously imperfect guides to public opinion; Hillary Clinton lost to Trump in 2016 partly because her campaign put too much faith in polls that wrongly showed her to be ahead. But it is also possible to make the opposite mistake — to pay so little attention to the horse race as to be disdainful of public opinion. Polls, after all, are not describing an actual horse race. They are describing something much more important: public opinion in a democratic system that is supposed to be responsive to that opinion. Related: There are early signs of a post-debate bounce for Harris, Nate Cohn explains.
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Opinions The through line in the Trump assassination attempts isn't security failures or heated rhetoric; it's easy access to guns, Gabrielle Giffords, the former congresswoman who survived a shooting in 2011, argues. Here's a column by Paul Krugman on the cost of demonizing immigrants. Readers of The Morning: Don't miss out on a full year of savings. From in-depth coverage of Decision 2024 to unlimited news and analysis, Games, Cooking, The Athletic and more, subscribe now for only $1 a week for your first year.
"Silver economy": In China — where the birthrate is plunging — businesses that catered to children are changing course to serve seniors. Dark sky: There's a partial lunar eclipse tonight. Here's what you need to know. White-nose syndrome: A fungus decimated American bats. Now scientists are fighting back. Ask Vanessa: Why do so many people wear all black? Education: The idea of incorporating the Bible into classrooms is gaining traction. Some conservative Christians aren't on board. Lives Lived: Dr. George Berci, a Holocaust survivor, conceived surgical techniques and tools that have revolutionized minimally invasive operations and procedures. He died at 103.
Monday Night Football: The Atlanta Falcons and their quarterback Kirk Cousins stunned the Philadelphia Eagles, taking a 22-21 lead with under a minute left. Read a recap. Gymnastics: The American gymnast Jordan Chiles appealed the ruling that stripped her of her Olympic bronze medal. Here's where the case stands. N.F.L.: After two blowout losses, the Carolina Panthers are benching their starting quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 pick in last year's draft, in favor of the veteran Andy Dalton.
NYT Cooking debuted 10 years ago today, and David Leonhardt reflects on the anniversary: I'm a heavy user of the NYT Cooking app, and not just because I work here. There is no easier way to turn a vague craving — or a potpourri of refrigerator ingredients — into a tasty meal. On Sunday, a full slate of September football left me wanting chili and, just like that, Julia Moskin was teaching me how to make a rich, smoky Texas-style version. To celebrate the 10th birthday, I recommend this beautiful package of recipes — including readers' 50 favorites.
At cafes and fast-food chains, Americans are obsessed with customizing drinks — filling them with tapioca pearls, dried fruit and cookies and cream crumbs. At Starbucks, a quarter of all custom drinks in the U.S. have more than three modifications. "A very American need for instant energy, coupled with a very American desire for self-expression, has inspired an ever-mutating ecosystem of tricked-out drinks," Priya Krishna writes. More on culture
Enjoy fall foliage in places that aren't New England. Conquer pests in your home. Upgrade your iPhone.
Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was chiefly. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com.
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The Morning: The horse race. (Yes, the horse race.)
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