The Morning: Biden vs. his party

Plus, the Republican convention, a Senate bribery conviction and California's new gender law.

View in browser|nytimes.com July 17, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering the Democratic Party's unresolved Biden dilemma — as well as the Republican convention, a Senate conviction and California's new gender law. President Biden last week. Doug Mills/The New York Times Self over party What happens when a politician's interest diverges from his party's interests? That's the question facing the Democratic Party, and it is the subject of today's newsletter. President Biden has survived the initial fallout from his shocking debate performance last month, and the momentum against him within the Democratic Party appears to have slowed. But the party's basic problem is unchanged: His presence on the ballot seems likely to hurt the Democrats' chances of beating Donald Trump this fall — and hurt the party's chances of controlling Congress. Among the evidence: In public appearances, Biden continues to confuse facts, and he struggles to make clear arguments for his candidacy. About 75 percent of voters say he is too old to be president, polls show. Most Democratic voters don't want him to be the nominee, polls also show. His approval rating is below 40 percent, worse than any modern president who has gone on to win re-election. Notably, in every battleground state that has a Senate race this year, the Democratic Senate candidate is winning, and Biden is losing: Source: RealClearPolling | By The New York Times In an earlier era, when the country's political parties were stronger, Democratic officials might have forced Biden from the race. In 1974, senior Republicans famously persuaded Richard Nixon to resign. In 1944, when Franklin Roosevelt was ailing, Democratic power brokers ousted his Soviet-friendly vice president, Henry Wallace, from the ticket and replaced him with Harry Truman. Today, the parties are weaker, and Democratic officials seem loath to confront Biden. (Daniel Schlozman, a political scientist at Johns Hopkins, argued in a recent Times Opinion essay that Democratic delegates do have the power to replace Biden.) For now, Democrats find themselves with a nominee whom most of them don't want, and they don't know what to do about it. Polls, misrepresented Near the end of Biden's press conference last week, he gave an answer that highlighted the difference between his own interests and his party's. It came after a reporter asked him about the possibility that Vice President Kamala Harris would replace him on the ticket. "If your team came back and showed you data that she would fare better against former President Donald Trump, would you reconsider your decision to stay in the race?" the reporter, Haley Bull of Scripps News, asked. Biden replied: "No, unless they came back and said, 'There's no way you can win.' Me. No one is saying that. No poll says that." Vice President Kamala Harris at a town hall in Philadelphia on Saturday. Erin Schaff/The New York Times It's worth unpacking that response. Biden did not reply that he was the Democrat most likely to win. Indeed, he suggested he might remain in the race even if it helped Trump. He named an impossibly high bar — certainty of defeat — for quitting. Four years ago, Biden probably was the Democrat with the best chance to beat Trump. Polls showed that Biden was a stronger candidate than his main primary rivals. But his standing has significantly weakened since then, as my colleague Nate Cohn has documented. The 2024 Biden no longer represents the promise of change. He is an unpopular and visibly aged incumbent. Another telling sign is that Biden tends to misrepresent polls when he talks about them. He claimed in last week's press conference that he beats Trump "all the time" in polls of likely voters. That is false; Trump tends to win polls of likely voters. Biden has also described the race as "a tossup"; most analysts disagree and consider Trump the favorite. At other times, Biden alleges that the polls are simply wrong, without explanation. (Related: My colleagues report that Biden's circle of confidants has shrunk in the past few weeks to a tiny group of loyalists.) With all this said, there is at least one very good argument for why Biden should remain the nominee. He won the primaries, in a rout. "Look, 14 million people voted for me to be the nominee," he told NBC News this week. His critics can make counterarguments, though: that Biden minimized his public appearances before the primaries to hide his aging — and that Americans can't unsee his debate performance. These changed circumstances explain why 20 congressional Democrats have called on him to quit and many more privately hope he does. "If he is our nominee, I think we lose," Adam Schiff, a House Democrat running for Senate in California, said at a fund-raiser last weekend. R.B.G. syndrome Many Democrats are haunted by a recent experience with another member of their party who refused to retire. Early in Barack Obama's second term, Ruth Bader Ginsburg could have resigned from the Supreme Court and allowed Obama (and the Democratic-controlled Senate) to replace her. But she rejected pleas to do so, sometimes using dubious justifications. She claimed, for instance, that a similarly liberal justice couldn't have been confirmed, even though the first justice Obama named to the court — Sonia Sotomayor — was arguably more liberal than Ginsburg. The real explanation seemed to be that she enjoyed her powerful job, much as Biden does. She prioritized her personal interests over her political values. She risked policy changes she abhorred — like the demise of Roe v. Wade, causing the loss of abortion access for millions of women — to keep her job well into her 80s. For Ginsburg's fellow progressives, the result was tragic. Biden is evidently hoping that his similar decision leads to a different outcome. More on Biden Democratic officials are divided about whether to nominate Biden before their convention or allow potential challenges. Biden is considering endorsing changes to the Supreme Court, including term limits and a binding ethics code. The proposals would need congressional approval, making them a long shot. Illegal border crossings dropped sharply in June after Biden restricted asylum, falling to the lowest monthly total since he took office. THE LATEST NEWS Republican Convention Nikki Haley Kenny Holston/The New York Times Crime and immigration were common themes on Night 2 of the Republican convention. "We are facing an invasion on our southern border — not figuratively, a literal invasion," Senator Ted Cruz said. (Here is a fact check.) The party has tried to project a theme of national unity since the shooting, but the pivot has been uneven. Gov. Jim Justice of West Virginia said the country would "become totally unhinged" if Trump didn't win. While Justice, who is running for Senate, delivered his speech, his 60-pound bulldog Babydog sat onstage in an armchair. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis both spoke, showcasing Republican Party unity. Haley made a pitch to Trump-skeptical voters, saying, "You don't have to agree with Trump 100 percent of the time to vote for him." Some attendees wore white bandages on their right ears, mimicking Trump's. More on the Campaign Many Hispanic voters support Trump's immigration plan, though some don't believe he would carry out his furthest-reaching pledges, such as placing undocumented people in camps. In a leaked phone call with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump voiced anti-vaccine conspiracy theories and described his phone call with Biden after the shooting as "very nice, actually." The Trump Shooting The Butler Farm Show grounds in Pennsylvania. Kristian Thacker for The New York Times Local police officers were stationed inside and around the warehouse complex from which a gunman shot Trump, the head of the Secret Service said. Before last weekend's shooting, U.S. intelligence agencies warned the Trump campaign of an unrelated Iranian plot to assassinate him. In Trump's survival, some Republicans see God's handiwork. Menendez Trial A federal jury convicted Senator Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, of participating in an international bribery scheme. Top Democrats called for him to resign. Menendez used the power of his office to help Egypt's government and two businessmen in exchange for lavish gifts like gold bars and a Mercedes for his wife. The jury also convicted the businessmen. Menendez is the first sitting senator to be convicted of acting as a foreign agent. He'll be sentenced in October. He could face years in prison. Israel-Hamas War Hamas military commanders are pressuring the group's leader in Gaza to accept a cease-fire and release hostages, the C.I.A. director said. Israeli strikes killed more than 20 people in separate parts of Gaza. Israel said militants had been operating inside a former U.N. school that it struck. A high-risk Israeli hostage rescue last month led to one of the war's deadliest days. See how it unfolded, moment by moment. More International News Clashes in the streets of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Mohammad Ponir Hossain/Reuters Bangladesh deployed its border guard to quell violent student protests over a job quota system that young people say limits opportunities. The Justice Department charged a former C.I.A. analyst with aiding South Korean spies in exchange for luxury handbags and clothing. Six people, including two Americans, were found dead in a hotel room in Thailand. The police initially said they appeared to have been poisoned, but later walked that back. Other Big Stories California banned schools from forcing educators to notify parents when students use different names or pronouns. Elon Musk said he would move the headquarters of X and SpaceX from California to Texas in protest. Home and auto insurers are losing money to wildfires. They want new construction standards — and they're burning buildings to prove their point. A fireball, then a boom: A meteor about the size of a toaster passed over Manhattan and exploded high in the sky. Opinions Biden's poll numbers look bad, but Democrats' doomsday thinking goes too far: This election is not a foregone conclusion, writes Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster. Let's appreciate anchovies, which have transformed simple dishes and gourmet food since the Roman Empire, Christopher Beckman writes. Here are columns by Bret Stephens on Trump's success and Michelle Goldberg on Trump's shooter. MORNING READS Ko Maung Saungkha holds a book of poetry. Daniel Berehulak/The New York Times Artists at war: A rebel commander in Myanmar has raised an army of 1,000 soldiers. But his background is not military — it's poetry. Flying ant day: Every summer, winged insects swarm Britain. Their moment is coming. Here be dragons: A journey across Switzerland following strangers' hand-drawn maps. Lives Lived: The actor James B. Sikking specialized in comically and threateningly stern men, most notably on "Hill Street Blues" and "Curb Your Enthusiasm." He died at 90. SPORTS M.L.B.: The American League won the All-Star Game, thanks to relentless pitching. But the highlight of the night was Shohei Ohtani's home run. See it here. M.L.B. draft: Boston added a familiar face: D'Angelo Ortiz, son of the Red Sox legend David Ortiz. N.F.L.: The San Francisco 49ers' star wide receiver, Brandon Aiyuk, requested a trade just a week before training camp begins. Read a recap. Soccer: The U.S. women's national team scuffled to a 0-0 draw against Costa Rica in its last match before the Olympics. Why aren't the Americans scoring? ARTS AND IDEAS Jonathon Heyward Braylen Dion for The New York Times Jonathon Heyward, the 31-year-old maestro known for his Converse sneakers, is trying to make classical music more approachable. Heyward has led the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra to expand its repertoire and appeal. A recent performance paid tribute to the victims of the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse, with a program that combined somber classical works and pieces by local artists including the hip-hop performer Wordsmith. "We want everyone to feel welcome here," Heyward told The Times. Next up for him: taking over Lincoln Center's summer ensemble. More on culture The country singer Ingrid Andress, whose rendition of the national anthem before the Home Run Derby this week was widely panned, said she was drunk at the time and would be going to rehab. Jack Black announced that his band, Tenacious D, was canceling the rest of its tour after a bandmate joked about the Trump shooting onstage in Australia. Marvel changed an Israeli superhero's back story, describing her as a "high-ranking U.S. government official" for its upcoming film. On "The Daily Show," Jon Stewart razzed his guest (and longtime foil) Bill O'Reilly. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews. Grill shrimp with this simple recipe. Watch these hidden gems on streaming services. Find the jeans that fit you best. See the most popular Prime Day deals according to Wirecutter readers. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was wizardry. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David P.S. After 12 years, Pete Wells is moving on from his role as The Times's restaurant critic. He reflected on the job — and showed his face — in a farewell column. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. 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