A terrorism expert argues against Israel's war strategy, plus: what the ultra-Orthodox draft ruling means for Israel; US–UK relations under Trump and Labour; and winners and losers in Assange's plea deal …
Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Sign up here. June 26, 2024 | |
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Is Hamas Getting Stronger? |
Since Hamas' Oct. 7 massacres, Israel's reprisal campaign in Gaza has cost tens of thousands of lives and has unfurled an intense humanitarian catastrophe. Some say it's also not achieving its military goal of eliminating Hamas.
In a Foreign Affairs essay, Gen. David Petraeus (ret.), former Deputy National Security Advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan Meghan O'Sullivan, and former National Security Council official for Near East Affairs Richard Fontaine argue Israel is repeating the mistakes America made in its post-9/11 wars. "Killing and capturing terrorists and insurgents is insufficient," they write. "[T]he key to solidifying security gains and stemming the recruitment of new adversaries is holding territory, protecting civilians, and providing governance and services to them. That approach reduces the likelihood that fighters will find succor among the population, which would allow them to reconstitute. … As was the case in successful U.S. operations, commanders should ask whether a given operation will eliminate more enemy fighters than it might produce."
As far as numbers go, it's not entirely clear how many of Hamas' fighters have been killed. Regardless, a Foreign Affairs essay by Robert A. Pape argues Hamas is getting stronger in a more holistic sense.
A University of Chicago political scientist and expert on terrorism, Pape writes that "thanks to Israel's assault, Hamas's power is actually growing. Just as the Viet Cong grew stronger … in 1966 and 1967 when the United States poured troops into [Vietnam] … Hamas remains intractable and has evolved into a tenacious and deadly guerrilla force in Gaza—with lethal operations restarting in the northern regions that were supposedly cleared by Israel only a few months ago. ... For a terrorist or insurgent group, the key source of power is not the size of its current generation of fighters but its potential to gain supporters from the local community in the future. … After nine months of grueling war, it is time to recognize the stark reality: there is no military-only solution to defeat Hamas. The group is more than the sum of its current number of fighters. It is also more than an evocative idea. Hamas is a political and social movement with violence at its core, and it is not going away any time soon." |
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What the Ultra-Orthodox Conscription Ruling Means for Israel |
On Tuesday, Israel's Supreme Court ruled that ultra-Orthodox men must be drafted into military service, reopening a long-simmering point of controversy between the ultra-Orthodox and Israel's mainstream Reform and secular communities. At the left-leaning Israel daily Haaretz, Michael Hauser Tov and Noa Shpigel report concerns that Israel's governing coalition could collapse if it doesn't pass a new law exempting the ultra-Orthodox through the Knesset by a July 28 deadline.
It's the most important of a series of challenges facing Netanyahu, who has been beset by protests, Haaretz editor-in-chief Aluf Benn writes for The Atlantic. "[T]he absence of the [ultra-Orthodox] youth from the front lines, military cemeteries, and hospitals is no longer accepted as it was before October 7," Benn writes. And yet, "[a]ny attempt to draft the ultra-Orthodox in earnest would spark a mass [ultra-Orthodox] protest. Their parties would pull out of the government, causing it to collapse." Broadly, Benn foresees Netanyahu's government heading for early elections in the spring. At The New York Times, Patrick Kingsley and Natan Odenheimer write that relations between the ultra-Orthodox and the rest of Israel have been shifted somewhat by the war in Gaza, which has not only raised the contentious issue of conscription but also has united the country and has seemed to elevate views of military service among the ultra-Orthodox. |
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US–UK Relations in the Trump Era |
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Winners and Losers in Assange's Plea Deal |
The long-running Julian Assange saga is finally over, as the WikiLeaks founder has pleaded guilty—in a US federal court in the Northern Mariana Islands—as part of a deal that will allow him to avoid extradition and imprisonment in the US. Having spent seven years at Ecuador's embassy in London and five years in British jails, Assange returned to his native Australia today.
At the Australian international-affairs think tank The Lowy Institute's Interpreter blog, Managing Editor Daniel Flitton assesses the political upshot: "[A]ll sides will now claim vindication. The US administration will say that the Justice Department has made its independent decision, and that Assange has accepted culpability. The Assange camp will claim his plea bargain was the only way to escape an ongoing trauma. Assange, free to tell his story, will likely transform into an even more sought-after voice globally, a trenchant critic of US foreign policy and the ills of corporate media. And the Australian government will say this resulted from quiet diplomacy. … There will be no boasting, but the government now has a ready-made line to blunt criticism that Australia only ever sides with the United States." |
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