The world will be watching |
America's elections often reverberate through the lives of millions of people overseas who, unlike US voters, have no capacity to influence the result. So, the critical first debate between President Joe Biden and ex-President Donald Trump, on CNN on Thursday night, will be just as closely watched overseas as in the US. The showdown comes at a perilous global moment. And Trump's first term was volatile enough. A possible second is already shaping up as even more disorientating for US allies abroad. The global system that enshrined American power for 80 years is under extreme pressure from adversaries seeking to destroy it, including Russia and the new superpower China. The Kremlin is intensifying its onslaught on Ukraine and threat to wider Europe. Israel's war in Gaza, which incessantly threatens to boil over, is a painful vulnerability for a sitting president, as his rival warns World War III could be nigh. Trump's main critique is that Biden is weak – a caricature that could resonate with some voters. But his own plans are as nebulous as his unlikely promise to end the Ukraine war in 24 hours and his unprovable claim that conflicts in Europe and the Middle East would "never have happened" if he'd been in office. Trump appears convinced that the strength of his personality alone would change the world and make America "more respected" — a trap that many presidents fall into. Foreign powers tend to act on their own national interests and don't just fall into line because a US president says they should. Trump also seems more at home with authoritarians like Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who dream of crushing US power, than democratic allies America liberated in the last cataclysmic global conflict. Trump's theory of international relations is that every country should act unilaterally to pursue its own goals. In such a way, big countries like the US, China and Russia will therefore naturally be in charge of sharing the spoils. This leaves no room for seeking multilateral solutions to problems that threaten all, like climate change. And small countries are out of luck. Some of the ex-president's former White House officials warn he might try to pull the United States out of NATO, the cornerstone of Western security, if he returns to the White House. Others suspect his hostility to the alliance is just a ruse to get them to pay more for their own defense and is rooted in his view of foreign alliances as a protection racket. Foreign nations — and many of their leaders — will be watching the debate for clues about whether they can expect a reprieve for Biden's traditional internationalism or a return of Trump's "America First" unilateralism that turned the United States from a bulwark of the West's stability into its most destabilizing force. |
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| Wikileaks Founder Julian Assange boards a flight at London's Stansted Airport on Monday. (Wikileaks/X) |
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'Compare me to the Almighty' |
The Almighty won't be standing on stage alongside Joe Biden on Thursday night. But Donald Trump will. Biden's team is seizing on the most critical presidential debate in years to spell out a contrast on character and policy that it believes will decide the 2024 election, if only voters will finally perceive it. It's the embodiment of one of Biden's own, rather defensive jokes — the idea that he doesn't need to be universally popular, just more acceptable than the other guy, who, happily for him, happens to be the most extreme ex-president of modern times. "My dad used to say, 'Joey, don't compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative,'" the president has said for years at rallies. The argument is a safety net for a president with the kind of low approval ratings that would normally condemn him to a single term and who has struggled to sell his achievements to voters. Biden's team is setting up Trump as an "unhinged" and criminal agent of vengeance unfit for a return to the presidency who will only look after himself, rich friends, and anti-abortion zealots. Biden is reflected in this conceit as a bulwark of stability and a guardian of the country's democratic values who is tirelessly working to improve workers' lives. And CNN's Kayla Tausche reported Tuesday that several top Democrats outside the White House want Biden to stop trying to claim credit for his achievements — including roaring jobs growth and a strong legislative record — and to go after Trump directly. "He wants the credit, but it's not working," one top Democrat, who had shared concerns with the campaign, said. |
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The 2024 election is different |
If Trump rants and vents his 2020 election lies on Thursday, he will play into Biden's hands. But while the television audience will be vast, the idea that there will be a moment of national realization about Trump's perceived threat seems more suited to the age of Cronkite than the age of TikTok. Biden, whom many voters believe is too old to serve a second term that would end when he is 86, is also under pressure to create a vision for the future for a weary electorate tired of high prices. He must therefore project certainty, stamina and authority on his own behalf to make the comparison work. But there is a deeper issue about the president's approach. Can it really be true that, eight years after Trump won the White House and three years after his turbulent presidency ended in violence, voters don't fully understand who Trump is? His dominance of media coverage makes it seem like he never went away. And voters would have to be hugely disengaged to not know that he's a recently convicted felon, was impeached twice, refused to accept defeat in 2020, called a crowd to Washington, DC, and told followers to "fight like hell" before they beat up police officers and invaded the US Capitol. Trump has lost a massive civil fraud trial, been found liable for sexual assault in a defamation case and mused during the pandemic about using disinfectant to treat Covid-19 inside the body. He spent weeks at his recent hush money trial in New York attacking judges, witnesses, the legal system and vowing to use the presidency as a vehicle of personal and political revenge if he wins a second term. But he's still locked in a neck-and-neck race with Biden and has been leading in many of the critical swing states that pave the way to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Biden and his fellow Democrats might see Trump as unacceptable. But he's not to millions of voters. The tied race reflects a nation split in two, politically and culturally, and is a commentary on Biden's unpopularity. And it reflects one of the most unusual aspects of this election. There are two presidents, both with a one-term record, competing for the White House. Voters don't really need to question how Trump would behave as president — they've already seen it, even if a second term for the 45th president already looks like it would be more extreme and volatile than the first. |
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