Tuesday Briefing: World markets fall

Plus, five years of Covid

View in browser|nytimes.com March 11, 2025 By Natasha Frost Good morning. We're covering market shudders and the future of Ukraine. Plus: Five years of Covid. A trader at the New York Stock Exchange yesterday. Charly Triballeau/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Economic fears sent world markets into a dive Stock markets around the world fell yesterday, a day after President Trump refused to rule out the possibility that his trade policies might cause a recession. The S&P 500 slid 2.7 percent, the sharpest daily drop in months. Several retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. also went into effect. Investors were reacting, in part, to an interview aired on Sunday in which Trump described "a period of transition" for the U.S. economy and suggested more tariffs might come. Prices also plunged for several large tech companies whose stocks have an outsize influence. Markets in Asia were down this morning as the sell-off continued. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase said there was a "materially higher risk of a global recession this year because of extreme U.S. policies." They put the likelihood of a downturn at 40 percent. Analysis: "The market volatility is much less about the bad news of tariffs and much more about the uncertainty of tariffs, especially uncertainty as to what the policy is, where it is headed, how long it will last and what the end result will be," said David Bahnsen, the chief investment officer at the Bahnsen Group. White House memo: Trump demurred when asked whether he expected a recession this year. "I hate to predict things like that," he said. "There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big." More on Trump The new U.S. energy secretary promised a "180-degree pivot" on climate policy, to the applause of oil and gas executives. Trump's comment about scrapping a major U.S. semiconductor program sent panic through Washington. Days after Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Elon Musk fought at the White House, it seems that they're seeking to smooth things over. In his second term, Trump is using more honey than vinegar to maintain his grip on Republicans, but the threat to ruin them is always there. Track Trump's actions since he took office. Ukraine should be "prepared to do difficult things," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday. Pool photo by Saul Loeb Ukraine must make concessions, Rubio said Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, said that Ukraine would have to concede some of the territory Russia has taken since 2014 as part of any agreement to end the war. As he flew to Saudi Arabia for talks with senior Ukrainian officials, Rubio told reporters, "The most important thing that we have to leave here with is a strong sense that Ukraine is prepared to do difficult things." Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, also traveled to Saudi Arabia, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has emerged as a mediator of sorts between Ukraine and Russia. President Trump's contentious recent meeting with Zelensky at the White House has raised the Ukrainian leader's approval rating in his country, giving him a break from his critics. At the front: Kyiv's forces stalled the Russian offensive in the eastern Donetsk region and started to win back small patches of land, soldiers and analysts said. Syrian Democratic Forces fighters in Kobane in 2017. Ivor Prickett for The New York Times Kurdish forces signed a deal with the Syrian government The Kurdish-led militia that controls northeast Syria agreed to merge with the country's new government. It was a major breakthrough for the new leaders as they try to unify a country wrestling with violent turmoil. The agreement stipulated that the militia, the Syrian Democratic Forces, which is backed by the U.S., would integrate "all civil and military institutions," as well as its prized oil and gas fields, into the new Syrian state by the end of the year. Unrest: Gunmen attacked a position held by Syrian security forces in Damascus on Sunday night, a war monitor said, raising fears that the deadly violence that began last week in Syria's coastal region could spread. Abductions: After the rebels took over in December, they dismissed all government police officers and security officials. Now, as residents are being abducted on unpatrolled streets, many are afraid to go out at night. From the region: Everybody has come forward with a plan for a postwar Gaza. All of them are unacceptable to somebody, writes Patrick Kingsley, our Jerusalem bureau chief. Federal immigration authorities detained a prominent pro-Palestinian activist at Columbia University and transferred him to a processing center in Louisiana. Iran's mission to the U.N. expressed a willingness to participate in limited talks with the U.S. about its nuclear program. MORE TOP NEWS Yonhap/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images South Korea: A Times investigation into efforts by President Yoon Suk Yeol to impose martial law uncovered many missteps. The first was overestimating his allies. Philippines: Rodrigo Duterte, the former president who oversaw a bloody antidrug crackdown, was arrested in Manila today on an International Criminal Court warrant accusing him of crimes against humanity. Canada: Mark Carney, a former central banker who was swept into the leadership of the Liberal Party, hopes to reorient the country's struggling economy as prime minister. Vatican: Pope Francis is no longer considered in imminent danger from pneumonia and other infections, officials said. Britain: A container ship collided with a U.S.-flagged oil tanker off the northeastern coast, causing multiple explosions and forcing the crews to abandon ship. Greenland: In the shadow of President Trump's annexation threats, residents will vote today on a new Parliament that will shape the island's path to sovereignty. Romania: The country's electoral commission barred Calin Georgescu, an ultranationalist candidate, from competing in the presidential race. Education: Harvard announced a hiring freeze after President Trump threatened to pull its federal funding. Media: A longtime Washington Post columnist resigned after the paper refused to run her critique of Jeff Bezos. Entertainment: Michelle Obama's next act will be to host a video podcast. SPORTS NEWS Sailing: The SailGP Championship has towering catamarans racing at over 90 kilometers per hour to compete for $12.8 million in prize money. Is it Formula 1 on the water? Soccer: Mohamed Salah has become Liverpool's most prolific penalty taker. Tennis: How do players really feel about their rankings? MORNING READ M. Scott Brauer for The New York Times You might not be as good at interpreting your dog's emotions as you think. Dogs' body language — bowing when they want to play, for instance, or licking their lips and averting their gaze when nervous — speaks volumes, but people are sometimes blind to those cues, according to a new study. "There's no evidence at all that people actually see the dog," a researcher said. "They seem to have a sort of a big blind spot around the dog himself." Lives lived: Athol Fugard, a South African playwright whose works exposed the realities of racial separatism in his homeland, died at 92. CONVERSATION STARTERS A star with a secret: Merle Oberon, an Oscar-nominated actress, used subterfuge to achieve success in a system that was stacked against her. Hope on hooves: At a rural Wisconsin farm, miniature pigs are pampered and indulged. One day, their organs might help keep humans alive. After sundown: Yemeni coffeehouses in the U.S. are creating late-night spaces that don't rely on alcohol. During Ramadan, some are packed until 3 a.m. Jam like a royal: What does King Charles have on his playlist? ARTS AND IDEAS Laetitia Vancon for The New York Times 5 years of Covid In March 2020, everything changed — across the economy, health care, education, work, family life and more. Careers were upturned. Cars stayed off the roads. Demand for oil cratered. People became more alone, detached and disconnected — changes that have lingered. See the effects of the pandemic in charts. The science: Five years on, researchers are starting to understand how a Covid infection can lead to long-term, sometimes invisible changes in the body. For more: We asked 19 photographers to revisit their most enduring images of the pandemic. We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times. RECOMMENDATIONS Andrew Scrivani for The New York Times Cook: Use whole-wheat pasta to take this caramelized cabbage dish to the next level. Read: "Careless People," by a former Facebook executive, claims to expose the bad behavior of company leaders. Listen: Our critic reviewed Lady Gaga's "bright, shiny and thoroughly sleek" new album. (Read our interview with her.) Plan: A travel writer planned a whirlwind odyssey of Europe's grandest cities, all by train. Play the Spelling Bee. And here are today's Mini Crossword and Wordle. You can find all our puzzles here. That's it for today's briefing. See you next time. — Natasha Reach Natasha and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for Morning Briefing: Europe Edition from The New York Times. 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