The Morning: The new politics of immigration

January 23, 2025

	By David Leonhardt

Good morning. We're covering Trump's deportation plans — as well as diversity programs, wildfires and same-sex marriage in Thailand.

A crowd of people passing through turnstiles.

In Ciudad Juárez, Mexico. Paul Ratje for The New York Times

A conflicted public

There is a tension in U.S. public opinion about President Trump's immigration plans.

After the past four years of record immigration, much of it illegal, most Americans support mass deportations. In a recent Times-Ipsos poll, 55 percent of adults said they favored "deporting all immigrants who are here illegally." Dissatisfaction with the Biden administration's relatively open immigration policies — especially among working-class voters, across races — helped Trump win the election.

Still, most Americans are uncomfortable with the specific policies that would be necessary to deport anywhere close to all undocumented immigrants. Only 38 percent of U.S. adults support using the military "to find and detain undocumented immigrants," an Axios-Ipsos poll found this month. Only 34 percent said they supported separating families as part of rapid deportations.

A chart shows American's opinions on select immigration policies based on a poll in January by Axios and Ipsos. Sixty-six percent of Americans support deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally, but just 38 percent support using the military to do so, and 34 percent support rapid deportation that may involve family separation.

Source: Axios/Ipsos poll of 1,025 U.S. adults from Jan. 10-12, 2025 | Chart excludes those who said they didn't know or didn't answer.

These crosscurrents will shape the reaction to Trump's immigration policies — and may influence how far they go. In his first two days back in office, he has signaled an aggressive approach. Federal officials are preparing to conduct raids in Chicago and other cities that are home to many undocumented immigrants, and the Justice Department has ordered U.S. attorneys to prosecute local officials who refuse to cooperate.

In today's newsletter, I'll help you understand how Americans are likely to react to Trump's immigration agenda.

Trump's political vulnerability

As you follow this story, I encourage you to avoid committing a common mistake: imagining that public opinion is closer to your own views than it is. Many Americans have strong views on immigration, either supportive or skeptical. And the conflicting signals in public opinion will tempt those on both sides to ignore inconvenient poll results and convince themselves that the public's true views match their own.

But the public's views really are complicated. Most Americans support both a meaningful number of deportations and meaningful limits to them. (Public opinion follows a similar pattern on abortion access.)

Trump and his aides will risk a public backlash if they wrongly believe that Americans will support almost any deportations. Many Americans will find it hard to accept the expulsion of undocumented immigrants who have lived here for many years and built stable lives. My colleague Eli Saslow profiled one of them: Jaime Cachua, who has lived in Rome, Georgia, since he was 1 and is married to an American woman, Jennifer, with whom he has two children. "I've never felt like a foreigner until now," Cachua recently told his father-in-law, who voted for Trump.

Building shelters for deportees in Chihuahua, Mexico. Paul Ratje for The New York Times

Some of the biggest failures of Trump's first term happened when he defied public sentiment. On immigration, an outcry caused him to reverse his family-separation policy in 2018. On health care, he suffered an embarrassing defeat when just enough congressional Republicans joined Democrats to protect to Barack Obama's signature law.

In both cases, his critics marshaled public opinion and grass-roots organizing to create political problems for him and other Republicans. It isn't hard to imagine how the story may repeat itself if his administration begins rounding up otherwise law-abiding people whom American voters see as their neighbors, friends, colleagues and relatives.

Popular deportations

But Democrats and immigration advocates also risk misreading public opinion. Some are already arguing that the polling suggests that most Americans support deportation only in theory, not in practice. That seems incorrect.

During Obama's eight years as president, the federal government deported more than three million people. Progressive critics taunted Obama as "the deporter in chief," but American voters liked his moderate immigration policy — which favored both a pathway to citizenship and tough border security — much more than they liked Biden's.

The Obama administration focused on two groups of undocumented immigrants: those with criminal records and those who entered the country recently. Those policies are still popular, the recent Times poll shows:

A chart shows American's opinions on select immigration policies based on a poll in January by The New York Times and Ipsos. Eighty-seven percent of Americans support deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally and have criminal records, and 63 percent support deporting immigrants here illegally who arrived in the last four years.

Source: New York Times/Ipsos poll of 2,128 U.S. adults from Jan. 2-10, 2025 | Chart excludes those who said they didn't know or didn't answer.

Their popularity helps explain why dozens of congressional Democrats joined Republicans this week to vote for the Laken Riley Act, which would require the deportation of undocumented immigrants charged with burglary, theft, assaulting a police officer or other crimes. The House passed the bill last night, after the Senate had done so Monday, setting it up to become the first law Trump will sign in his second term.

The exact contours of Trump's immigration crackdown remain unclear. But the most likely scenario seems to be a mix of deportation policies including some that most Americans support and others that most consider too extreme.

More on immigration

The U.S. canceled flights for thousands of refugees it had already approved to enter the country.
The Pentagon plans to send 1,500 troops to the southern border by the end of the month.
Mexico devised a plan — called "Mexico Embraces You" — to assist thousands of its citizens after U.S. deportations. Experts question whether the government is truly ready.
The Biden administration deported more people than Trump did in his first term, in part because there were more arrivals.
North African countries increased deportations of people from sub-Saharan Africa last year, part of a joint effort with the E.U. that has helped reduce migration to Europe.

THE LATEST NEWS

Diversity Programs

President Trump Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times

The Trump administration, as part of a purge of diversity programs, asked federal workers to report colleagues who keep such programs alive and threatened those who did not comply.
In a related order, Trump revoked a 60-year-old rule banning discrimination at federal contractors.
Some corporate leaders worry that the Trump administration might investigate them over their diversity policies.
Costco and Microsoft said they would maintain diversity programs, even as other large companies retreat.

Trump's Picks.

Trump picked Sean Curran, who led his security detail during the campaign, to be the Secret Service director.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has made millions referring clients for lawsuits over Merck's HPV vaccine. He plans to keep his financial stake in the suits if he becomes health secretary.
Trump wants his cabinet nominees confirmed quickly. Senate Democrats are slowing the process.

MORNING READS

Made for walking: See video of how tiny mushroom corals move themselves.

Detours and digital detoxes: Read about what to expect from travel in 2025.

MAGA sons: For some liberal parents, their kids' conservatism is a painful rejection.

Social Q's: "My son wants to pay for his sister to freeze her eggs. Too weird?"

Lives Lived: José Jiménez was a street-wise Puerto Rican who in the late 1960s transformed a Chicago gang called the Young Lords into a militant voice for expanded social services, fair housing and education. He died at 76.

SPORTS

N.F.L.: The Jets hired the Lions' defensive coordinator, Aaron Glenn — their first-round pick in 1994 — as head coach.

Tennis: The American Ben Shelton criticized local media outlets at the Australian Open, accusing them of repeatedly being disrespectful to players.

ARTS AND IDEAS

From left, a player looks up as a soccer ball heads toward him, and a woman wearing a jacket, a hat and gloves raises her arms above her head during an exercise class.

Beach soccer in Rio and a calisthenic routine in Toyko. Ian Cheibub for The New York Times, Kosuke Okahara for The New York Times

Only a quarter of Americans get enough physical activity, doctors say. In other countries, movement is more baked in to everyday life. Read free fitness lessons from Finland, Japan, Britain and Brazil.

More on culture

This winter, New Yorkers are countering dreary weather with playful fashion.
The late night hosts commented on a bishop's plea to Trump. "Bishop, please, all right? We don't go to church to hear a lecture about having mercy on the less fortunate," Ronny Chieng said.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

A tray of tortilla chips topped with cheese and jalapenos.

Christopher Simpson for The New York Times

Layer melted cheese and briny pickled jalapeños on top of tortilla chips.

Play PC games with a controller.

Clean your trash can.

GAMES

Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was extinction.

And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

Correction: Yesterday's newsletter misstated Ichiro Suzuki's status in the Baseball Hall of Fame. He was elected on Tuesday, but he has not yet been inducted.

Editor: David Leonhardt

Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson

News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ashley Wu

News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar

Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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