Good morning. Today, two of my colleagues use maps to explain the state of the war in Ukraine. We're also covering Mexico's judiciary, a new ChatGPT and "The Golden Bachelorette." —David Leonhardt
Summer battles
Not long ago, a Ukrainian officer at an artillery position on the eastern front shared a telling detail with The Times. His crew, sweaty and covered in dust, was firing a howitzer at a coal mine it had occupied until just days earlier. Now they were losing ground, and the Russians held the mine. Not since the early months of the war have front lines shifted as swiftly as they have in the past several weeks. In northeastern Ukraine last month, the country's military staged a surprise attack into Russia and quickly captured about 500 square miles. At the same time, Russian troops pressed ahead with their offensive toward the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, advancing by more than a mile on some days. Yesterday, they were on the city's doorstep. In today's newsletter, we'll examine the new battlefield maps, and we'll explain why each front is so volatile. The eastern frontFor more than a year, the lines often shifted only yards per day, despite fierce fighting. Troops were dug into well-fortified lines that led to comparisons to World War I. Then, in February, Russia broke through a dense maze of Ukrainian defenses in the city of Avdiivka, an industrial city that had been a Ukrainian stronghold since 2014. Russia then had a path to the west through Ukraine's fallback lines. The advances have since continued, sporadically. Russia ground through defensive positions in fields east of Pokrovsk, a city built around a crucial road and railroad junction, this summer.
The artillery team near the coal mine held a position typical for Ukrainian forces. It was tucked into a grove of trees for camouflage. It overlooked a vast open farm field. The fields, the small villages and the several reservoirs on the Pokrovsk front provide few natural barriers against infantry attacks or sources of cover from Russian artillery and aerial bombs. Since April, Russian troops passed five lines of Ukrainian fortifications. Only two now remain between the front line and the city, Pokrovsk's military administrator told me. Police cars drove on the city's streets, blaring orders for residents to evacuate. Its fall would cut key supply lines for Ukraine into the Donbas region and ease Russia's potential march westward. The northern front
Ukraine realized it was losing ground in the east. Rather than fight on ineffectively there, on Russia's terms, Ukraine responded with a risky surprise attack in the north. Troops surged into Russia, hoping to draw forces away from the battle for Pokrovsk. So far at least, it has not worked. Russia still presses ahead in eastern Ukraine. Yet Ukrainian troops have quickly opened a new front in the war. It captured about a hundred settlements near the border, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukraine's military broke through thin border defenses manned mostly by young conscripts. Then soldiers advanced along two rivers, keeping the water as a protective barrier along one flank. Their gains have yet to be tested in a serious counterattack. Some of the tactics are similar in both theaters. As Russia has sought to encircle Ukrainian troops in the Donbas, Ukraine has tried the same in Russia. It has blown up bridges over the Seym River to isolate Russian soldiers in a pocket between the water and the Ukrainian border. As Russia tried to build pontoon crossings over the river in recent weeks, Ukraine blew them up with long-range strikes. It's not a given that this period of quick changes will continue. Going into the fall, the questions are whether Ukraine can defend the Russian territory it captured and whether Russia's troops can continue on the offensive without a pause to rearm and regroup. The answers will help determine both the future of the war and any potential peace deal. More on the war
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