The Morning: The state of the war in Ukraine

Plus, Mexico's judiciary, a new ChatGPT and "The Golden Bachelorette."

View in browser|nytimes.com September 13, 2024 Good morning. Today, two of my colleagues use maps to explain the state of the war in Ukraine. We're also covering Mexico's judiciary, a new ChatGPT and "The Golden Bachelorette." —David Leonhardt Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project | Note: As of Sept. 8 | By The New York Times Summer battles By Andrew E. Kramer and Josh Holder Andrew visited the fronts. Josh tracked troop movements and made the maps. Not long ago, a Ukrainian officer at an artillery position on the eastern front shared a telling detail with The Times. His crew, sweaty and covered in dust, was firing a howitzer at a coal mine it had occupied until just days earlier. Now they were losing ground, and the Russians held the mine. Not since the early months of the war have front lines shifted as swiftly as they have in the past several weeks. In northeastern Ukraine last month, the country's military staged a surprise attack into Russia and quickly captured about 500 square miles. At the same time, Russian troops pressed ahead with their offensive toward the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, advancing by more than a mile on some days. Yesterday, they were on the city's doorstep. In today's newsletter, we'll examine the new battlefield maps, and we'll explain why each front is so volatile. The eastern front For more than a year, the lines often shifted only yards per day, despite fierce fighting. Troops were dug into well-fortified lines that led to comparisons to World War I. Then, in February, Russia broke through a dense maze of Ukrainian defenses in the city of Avdiivka, an industrial city that had been a Ukrainian stronghold since 2014. Russia then had a path to the west through Ukraine's fallback lines. The advances have since continued, sporadically. Russia ground through defensive positions in fields east of Pokrovsk, a city built around a crucial road and railroad junction, this summer. Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project | Note: As of Sept. 8 | By The New York Times The artillery team near the coal mine held a position typical for Ukrainian forces. It was tucked into a grove of trees for camouflage. It overlooked a vast open farm field. The fields, the small villages and the several reservoirs on the Pokrovsk front provide few natural barriers against infantry attacks or sources of cover from Russian artillery and aerial bombs. Since April, Russian troops passed five lines of Ukrainian fortifications. Only two now remain between the front line and the city, Pokrovsk's military administrator told me. Police cars drove on the city's streets, blaring orders for residents to evacuate. Its fall would cut key supply lines for Ukraine into the Donbas region and ease Russia's potential march westward. The northern front Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project | Note: As of Sept. 8 | By The New York Times Ukraine realized it was losing ground in the east. Rather than fight on ineffectively there, on Russia's terms, Ukraine responded with a risky surprise attack in the north. Troops surged into Russia, hoping to draw forces away from the battle for Pokrovsk. So far at least, it has not worked. Russia still presses ahead in eastern Ukraine. Yet Ukrainian troops have quickly opened a new front in the war. It captured about a hundred settlements near the border, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukraine's military broke through thin border defenses manned mostly by young conscripts. Then soldiers advanced along two rivers, keeping the water as a protective barrier along one flank. Their gains have yet to be tested in a serious counterattack. Some of the tactics are similar in both theaters. As Russia has sought to encircle Ukrainian troops in the Donbas, Ukraine has tried the same in Russia. It has blown up bridges over the Seym River to isolate Russian soldiers in a pocket between the water and the Ukrainian border. As Russia tried to build pontoon crossings over the river in recent weeks, Ukraine blew them up with long-range strikes. It's not a given that this period of quick changes will continue. Going into the fall, the questions are whether Ukraine can defend the Russian territory it captured and whether Russia's troops can continue on the offensive without a pause to rearm and regroup. The answers will help determine both the future of the war and any potential peace deal. More on the war Near Moscow. Maxim Shemetov/Reuters President Biden is poised to let Ukraine launch long-range Western weapons deep into Russia, as long as it doesn't use U.S.-provided arms, officials said. The Toronto Film Festival canceled screenings of a documentary on Russian soldiers, which has been criticized as Kremlin propaganda. THE LATEST NEWS 2024 Republican Campaign Donald Trump said he wouldn't debate Kamala Harris again. Harris, who raised $47 million after Tuesday's debate, said "we owe it to the voters to have another debate." A Georgia judge threw out three charges in the criminal case against Trump and his allies there, but kept most of it intact. The case remains frozen while the defendants seek to disqualify the prosecutor, who had a relationship with a subordinate. Trump, campaigning in Arizona, called for the elimination of taxes on overtime pay. 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Scammers often target older women on dating apps. One women said men have made her feel like dating a woman in her 60s is an act of generosity. "It's exhausting," Anne Vitiello, a 60-year-old single woman from New York, said. "It's like panning for gold in a sewer." More on culture In New York. Simbarashe Cha/The New York Times New York's streets had no shortage of great outfits during Fashion Week. See some looks. You may have seen a lot of videos of the V.M.A.s on social media this week. See the show's seven most memorable moments. Late night hosts joked about Biden briefly wearing a MAGA cap. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times Bake cauliflower Parmesan. Take a solo cruise. Travel with better luggage. Slice your pizza with scissors. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was mothball. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. P.S. The Times is re-establishing its Vietnam bureau, which closed in 1975, and Damien Cave will lead it. Here's our front page from April 30, 1975, covering the fall of Saigon. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. 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