The Morning: Iran’s very bad year

Plus, South Korea, India and Notre-Dame Cathedral.

View in browser|nytimes.com December 9, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. Today, we're covering the weakening of Iran. We're also covering South Korea, India and Notre-Dame Cathedral. Celebrations at a border crossing from Lebanon into Syria. Daniel Berehulak/The New York Times Iran's annus horribilis Most questions about Syria's future don't have clear answers. Will the Islamist rebels who have taken over the country create a harsh Taliban-style government? Or do the rebels' recent hints of moderation point toward something gentler? The situation remains uncertain. But one implication of President Bashar al-Assad's downfall seems clear: It caps a remarkably bad year for Iran. The alliance Iran leads — the "axis of resistance" — has unraveled, as my colleague Alissa Rubin writes. One of Iran's Middle Eastern rivals, Saudi Arabia, is now in a stronger position as a result. So is Israel, which Iran has long sought to destroy. The United States, for its part, just elected a president whom Iran so despises that its agents considered a plot to assassinate him. By The New York Times In today's newsletter, I'll walk you through Iran's annus horribilis (a Latin phrase for horrible year, popularized by Queen Elizabeth II) and its effects on geopolitics. My colleagues and I will also give you the latest news from Syria. April: A failed attack Much of Iran's weakened position stems from the fallout of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas, which Iran finances. That attack intensified the conflict between Iran and Israel. In April, Israel bombed the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria's capital, and Iran responded by firing more than 300 drones and missiles into Israel. That response was a failure. Israel worked with other countries, including the U.S., Jordan and Saudi Arabia, to shoot down nearly every missile and drone. The outcome highlighted regional opposition to Iran — and it made Iran look militarily weak. May: The president's death The funeral of President Ebrahim Raisi. Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times Iran's president, Ebrahim Raisi, was visiting a remote area when he was killed in a helicopter crash that Iran blamed on dense fog. Raisi's death created a political void, because he was a protégé and potential successor of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The crash also raised questions about basic competence: Presidents aren't supposed to die in accidents. July: A Tehran assassination When Iran inaugurated its new president this summer, one of Hamas's leaders, Ismail Haniyeh, traveled to Tehran for the celebration. While Haniyeh was staying in a government guesthouse, Israel killed him with a remote-controlled bomb. The assassination was another reason to doubt Iran's strength. Israeli intelligence evidently carried out the bombing by penetrating Iran's government. October: Hamas degraded On a Wednesday afternoon this fall, an Israeli patrol happened upon Yahya Sinwar, the main architect of Hamas's Oct. 7 attack, in southern Gaza and shot him. The circumstances — Sinwar was walking around a badly damaged neighborhood, accompanied by a few other militants — underscored how badly the war has weakened Hamas. Although Israel has not eliminated Hamas, the group has lost much of its leadership and thousands of fighters. It no longer serves the menacing role on Israel's southwestern border that Iran wants it to. November: Hezbollah degraded Israel also spent much of this fall pummeling Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group based in Lebanon that started shelling Israel after Oct. 7, 2023, in solidarity with Hamas. Israel has killed Hezbollah leaders, detonated the pagers of hundreds of fighters and destroyed many weapons. In late November, Hezbollah accepted a cease-fire that my colleague Ben Hubbard described as a de facto defeat. Like Hamas, Hezbollah is no longer the threat that it was. December: Assad falls The overthrow of Syria's government may be even more damaging to Iran than the degradation of Hamas and Hezbollah. Syria is a nation, not merely a militant group, and its new government will be run by a Sunni Muslim group that is hostile to Iran's Shiite government. As Hassan Shemshadi, a regional expert in Tehran, told The Times this weekend, "For Iran, Syria has been the backbone of our regional presence." Farnaz Fassihi, a Times reporter who has been covering Iran for 25 years, called Assad's fall "a monumental development that will reshape the balance of power in the Middle East." 2025: Trump's return Donald Trump has been consistently hawkish toward Iran. Still, my colleague Jonathan Swan, who covers Trump, thinks a deal between Iran and the U.S. next year is plausible. "Trump's victory is bad news for Iran," Jonathan said, "but it's also possible that Trump judges that Iran is so depleted, so broken by Israel and in such a weak overall state that the time is ripe for a deal." Iran continues to have strengths. It has made progress toward having a nuclear weapon, and it is part of an informal alliance that includes China and Russia. "One thing that Iran has shown is that they have the capacity to play a long game," said Ryan Crocker, a former U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. Nonetheless, the change in Iran's position is stunning. When 2024 began, almost nobody would have predicted the scale of defeat that it has experienced. The latest from Syria At Bashar al-Assad's former residence.  Omar Haj Kadour/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Assad fled to Moscow, Russian state media said. Syrians ransacked his palace, taking selfies and many of his possessions. See a video. Our reporters drove the road into Damascus and saw relics of the regime — shredded military billboards, abandoned tanks — everywhere. The rebels now face the difficult task of governing. David Sanger asks: Will the rebels work with Russia and Iran? Syria's civil war began as peaceful protests during the Arab Spring. The poor outcomes of that era's other revolutions are a warning for Syrians now, Patrick Kingsley writes. Israeli forces crossed the Syrian border and took control of a Syrian mountain. The military said it was necessary to secure the area. Footage shows a chaotic scene after rebels captured a notorious prison. Watch it here. American response The U.S. has been passing secret messages to the rebel groups through the Turkish government in recent days. The U.S. bombed Islamic State camps to stop the group from reasserting itself after Assad's fall. President Biden and the family of Austin Tice, an American journalist who disappeared in Syria in 2012, said they believe that he is alive and could be returned to the U.S. THE LATEST NEWS South Korea South Korea's government banned President Yoon Suk Yeol from leaving the country after he briefly declared martial law last week. After the standoff, South Koreans are asking: Who is in charge? More International News A memorial in central Kyiv. Mauricio Lima for The New York Times Volodymyr Zelensky said 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since Russia's invasion began three years ago. U.S. officials have estimated a significantly higher toll. Records seized by Israel show that Hamas has had a presence in U.N. schools in Gaza. Israel claims the U.N. has tried to minimize the problem, but the U.N. argues Israeli officials are waging an unfair campaign to discredit it. India's luxury property market is eager to work with the Trump Organization. Notre-Dame Cathedral had its first public mass since its 2019 fire. More than 100 people were massacred in a poor Haiti neighborhood. Rights groups said a gang boss was targeting voodoo practitioners after his son died, blaming witchcraft for the child's illness. Politics Liz Cheney, once a senior House Republican, called Trump's threat to imprison her an "assault on the rule of law and the foundations of our republic." Bill Clinton said there was truth in the assessment that being overly woke had hurt his party. UnitedHealthcare Shooting In the back of a taxi. NYPD, via Associated Press The New York police released two new images of the man they believe killed the C.E.O. of UnitedHealthcare. See the photos. The police found what they believe to be the suspect's backpack in Central Park. It had Monopoly money inside, CNN reports. Other Big Stories Matthew "WHIZ" Buckley/No Fallen Heroes Foundation Elite Navy pilots say that by the end of their careers, they often feel confused and consumed by anxiety. The Navy is studying whether extreme flying causes brain damage. Victims of child abuse are suing Apple. They argue that the company abandoned a 2021 system it developed to find abusive material on iCloud. Three-quarters of the world's land became drier in recent decades, a U.N. report found. Opinions Nicholas Kristof examines the winners and losers of Assad's fall, while Bret Stephens writes that Israel deserves some of the credit for it. When young women get pregnant, their chances of being murdered more than double. Sara Chodosh tells one woman's story. Gail Collins and Stephens discuss Hunter Biden's pardon. The Times Sale starts now: Our best rate for readers of The Morning. Save now with our best offer on unlimited news and analysis as part of the complete Times experience: $1/week for your first year. MORNING READS Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times Living small: In Japan, some newer houses are barely wider than a family car. Four-day workweek: These British companies offered their workers shorter hours. Read what happened. Metropolitan Diary: A forbidden snack. Lives Lived: Angela Alvarez was a Cuban-born singer and songwriter who, at age 95, became the oldest performer to win the Latin Grammy Award for best new artist. She died at 97. SPORTS M.L.B.: Juan Soto agreed to a 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets. It is the largest deal ever given to a baseball player. N.F.L.: The Kansas City Chiefs skated by the Los Angeles Chargers, 19-17, clinching the A.F.C. West title with four games to play. College football: The inaugural 12-team playoff is set. See the full bracket. ARTS AND IDEAS Forty years ago, the chemistry of pop stardom was irrevocably changed, Jon Pareles writes. It was a year of blockbuster albums like Madonna's "Like a Virgin" and a redefinition of what pop success could mean for performers. Read Jon's retrospective of 1984. More on culture Jay-Z Chris Delmas/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images A lawsuit accused Jay-Z of raping a 13-year-old girl in 2000 with Sean Combs. He vehemently denied the claims and called the case blackmail. Taylor Swift performed her last show of the Eras Tour. Her concert tour sold more than $2 billion in tickets — double any other in history. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times Stir to make an incredible cacio e pepe. Tackle D.I.Y. projects with the best drill. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was inexact. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. 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