The Morning: Abortion on the ballot

Plus, Harris and Trump, a second Google antitrust case and athletes' anime obsession.

View in browser|nytimes.com September 9, 2024 Good morning. Today, my colleague Kate Zernike explains the 10 abortion measures on the ballot this fall. We're also covering Harris and Trump, a second Google antitrust case and athletes' anime obsession. —David Leonhardt Abortion rights supporters in Arizona. Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press Body politics By Kate Zernike I cover abortion. If there's one thing that captures how the abortion debate has changed in the last two years, it's ballot initiatives. In the five decades that Roe v. Wade was the law of the land, almost every abortion question on state ballots was put there by anti-abortion groups. Now the reverse is true. In the last two years, abortion rights activists won seven out of seven ballot initiatives. So this fall, they're swinging big, asking voters in 10 states to establish a constitutional right to abortion. A few of these new measures — in Florida, Missouri and South Dakota — would do something no ballot question has done so far: restore access to abortion where it had been almost entirely banned. Previous ballot initiatives have merely protected access in states where it already existed. And Democrats have another motivation for the initiatives: to drive turnout for Kamala Harris and the party's congressional candidates, especially in battleground states like Arizona and Nevada. Several measures will be tricky to pass. The one in Florida, for instance, requires a 60 percent majority. (The highest margin the abortion rights side has won in a red state is just below that.) In today's newsletter, I'll guide you through the ballot questions that would let voters decide abortion policy in their states. Red-state abortions Most of the ballot measures would amend a state constitution to re-establish the right the Supreme Court established in Roe v. Wade: access to abortion until viability, when the fetus can survive outside the uterus. That's around 24 weeks of pregnancy. After that, the state could limit or ban abortion, except if a medical provider says it was necessary to protect the mother. Signing a petition in Missouri. Ed Zurga/Associated Press The stakes are highest in the states that restricted abortion after the court overturned Roe, and where Republican-controlled legislatures protect anti-abortion policies. A measure in Missouri would reverse a ban, but a legal challenge may strip it from the ballot this week. Florida bans abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, which is about two weeks after a woman misses her period. At that point, many women don't yet know they are pregnant. The amendment would restore access for the roughly four million women of reproductive age in the state — and for millions more who once traveled there for abortions from nearby states that ban them. Anti-abortion groups are sponsoring just one measure, in Nebraska. It would ban abortion in the second and third trimester, enshrining a state law that prohibits abortion after 12 weeks. So why offer the constitutional amendment? Because abortion-rights groups have a competing question that would prevent the state from banning abortion before the fetus becomes viable. If both amendments pass, the one with more votes takes effect. Driving Democratic turnout In some places, the ballot amendment won't really change abortion policy — it just affirms state law. But it could draw more voters to the polls. A rally in Las Vegas. John Locher/Associated Press In Montana, abortion is already legal until a fetus's viability (or roughly 24 weeks of pregnancy), thanks to a 1999 state Supreme Court decision. But sponsors of this year's amendment say they need to enshrine that right in the Constitution so lawmakers or justices can't undo it. And if it drives turnout to re-elect Jon Tester, a vulnerable Senate incumbent, then all the better for them. Democrats have similar ideas about Arizona and Nevada. These are battlegrounds not only in the presidential race but also in the party's bid to hold its Senate majority. In Arizona, the amendment would overturn a ban on abortion after 15 weeks. But Nevada already allows abortion until viability, so the immediate objective there seems more purely political. The same is true in Maryland, where Democrats hope a ballot measure helps Angela Alsobrooks beat Larry Hogan, a Republican former governor, in this year's Senate race. Then there's the House. To win a majority, Democrats need to net at least four seats. Operatives have identified 18 competitive races across the country where ballot measures could help. The list includes two seats to flip in Arizona and three to hold in Nevada. It also includes two seats they want to win in Colorado, where a ballot measure in November would enshrine current policy, which allows abortion at any time. (That initiative also needs more than a simple majority — 55 percent — to win.) Political compromises The biggest prize liberals see is in blue New York, home to seven competitive House races, five in districts held by Republicans. Abortion is already legal until viability, but a ballot initiative there would go further, establishing an "Equal Protection of Law Amendment" that would bar discrimination based on sex. It doesn't specifically mention abortion, and Republicans believe its reference to "gender identity" will alienate voters. Activists went with a narrower option in South Dakota, which would allow abortion restrictions in the second trimester — which begins at 13 weeks, well before viability — betting that would pass in a conservative state. Planned Parenthood declined to support it, saying it didn't go far enough. For abortion rights groups, the ballot strategy may be near its end. Only 17 states allow citizens to put amendments in front of voters. If the groups succeed in November, there will be only three states among those — Arkansas, North Dakota and Oklahoma — that ban abortion. For more More voters, especially women, now say abortion is their top issue. Democrats hope the abortion issue will save the Senate, but in conservative states, it might not be enough. Why hasn't democracy settled the abortion question in the U.S.? Until recently, voters hadn't faced many chances to express their views. THE LATEST NEWS More on the Election Harris and Donald Trump are close in the polls heading into their first debate tomorrow, Nate Cohn writes. At the debate, Harris must decide how much to embrace President Biden's policies or distance herself from them. What are Harris's strengths and weaknesses as a debater? The Times's Lisa Lerer looks at moments from the vice president's previous performances. Watch a three-minute video. Middle East Israeli strikes in western Syria killed at least 14 people, according to Syrian state media. Kuwait, a major oil exporter, has introduced blackouts to cope with surging electricity demand over summer. More International News A stall selling traditional Tajik clothing, rather than hijabs and head scarves. Nanna Heitmann for The New York Times Tajikistan, in an attempt to counter extremism, is restricting visible signs of Islam. It has enforced bans on head scarves, and local authorities with scissors outside a K.F.C. have trimmed men's beards. A fugitive televangelist accused of leading an international sex abuse ring was caught in the Philippines. He was wanted by the F.B.I. The opposition candidate in Venezuela's election has sought asylum in Spain. The decision has dimmed hopes for democracy in the South American country. Typhoon Yagi killed at least 21 people and injured more than 200 as it churned across Vietnam. Earlier, it killed at least 24 in China and the Philippines. Greece's prime minister has proposed measures — including restricting cruise visits — to curb tourist numbers. Business Google's second antitrust trial begins today. The Justice Department has called for a breakup of the tech giant, which it says controls most online advertising. Apple will today unveil iPhones with artificial intelligence features. The system — called Apple Intelligence — will create a more capable Siri powered by generative A.I. Other Big Stories In Winder, Ga. Christian Monterrosa for The New York Times After a school shooting in the Georgia town of Winder, residents consoled one another and asked whether more could have been done to prevent the attack. A wildfire in Southern California more than quadrupled in size over the weekend, forcing evacuation orders. Russell Nelson, the leader of the Mormon Church, is 100 today. Justice Samuel Alito disclosed a gift of concert tickets worth $900 from a German princess with links to far-right conservatives. Opinions American politics will become increasingly violent if we continue to normalize attacks, Katherine Miller writes. Is your name your destiny? There is good reason to be skeptical, Jesse Singal writes. Here is a column by David French on MAGA. The Times Sale starts now: Our best rate for readers of The Morning. Save now with our best offer on unlimited news and analysis as part of the complete Times experience: $1/week for your first year. MORNING READS The solar system's innermost planet. European Space Agency, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Mercury: New images show the speckled surface of the planet in detail. Dispatch: Catholic priests once came to Indonesia. One of the country's islands now ordains so many it exports them. Quiz: A.I. can create lifelike videos. Can you tell what's real? Nature: Apes have been observed making more than 80 meaningful gestures. These theories try to explain why. Metropolitan Diary: It started with a cigarette. Lives Lived: María Benítez was an American dancer and choreographer who, as the founder of a popular Spanish dance troupe, played a major role in making New Mexico a hotbed for flamenco. She died at 82. SPORTS Jannik Sinner Karsten Moran for The New York Times U.S. Open: Jannik Sinner of Italy, the men's No. 1, defeated the American Taylor Fritz in straight sets in the final. The win reaffirms Sinner's place atop tennis, our columnist writes. N.F.L.: The Detroit Lions outlasted the Los Angeles Rams in overtime, part of an entertaining Week 1. Soccer: The U.S. player Alex Morgan appeared in her final professional match. It was an emotional night. ARTS AND IDEAS Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns with an anime visor. Nick Cammett/Getty Images High-profile young athletes like the sprinter Noah Lyles and MMA's Israel Adesanya are broadcasting their obsession with anime like "Naruto" and "Pokémon." The trend upends outdated labels that divide jocks and geeks. "There's more nerds out here that can ball out and like anime," Jamaal Williams of the New Orleans Saints, who has worn an anime helmet visor, said. "You don't have to be the stereotype where all we do is rap or play ball." More on culture A revealing and sometimes uncomfortable nine-hour documentary about Prince could redefine our understanding of the singer. It may never be released. "The Room Next Door," directed by Pedro Almodóvar and starring Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore, won the Golden Lion for best film at the Venice International Film Festival. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Ryan Liebe for The New York Times. Top this simple one-pot chicken and rice dish with caramelized lemon slices. Get cozy in the best pajamas. Give a great bridal shower gift. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangrams were weighting, whetting and whitening. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. 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