The Morning: A Q&A about Latino Republicans

Plus, a barricade at Columbia, war in Sudan and a popular workout.

View in browser|nytimes.com April 30, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering the reasons Latino voters have shifted to the right — along with a barricade at Columbia, war in Sudan and a popular workout. In Austin, Texas. Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York Times Disillusionment and rebellion Many people have been surprised by the shift of Latino voters toward the Republican Party. It has happened during the same decade that Donald Trump took over the party, and Trump often derides immigrants, including Latinos. Nevertheless, Latino support for Republicans has risen: Sources: Catalist (2012, 2016 and 2020); New York Times/Siena College April poll (2024) | By The New York Times I have been talking with my colleague Jennifer Medina about these developments, and I want to share our exchange with you. Jennifer, a politics reporter based in Southern California, is writing a book about Latino political identity. David: You've spent a lot of time traveling the country and talking to voters. Why do more Latino voters find Trump appealing? Jennifer: There is no one simple profile. For a lot of these voters, there is a gut sense that the economy was better before the pandemic — and a perception that Trump has business acumen. Some are also repulsed by anything that they believe approaches socialism, like universal health care or college loan forgiveness. For others, it is about religious values, including opposition to abortion. Then there is immigration: Many children and grandchildren of immigrants are repelled by what they see as the current chaos — people crossing illegally and being allowed to stay, people they believe are unfairly seeking asylum and so on. Some voters simply delight in Trump's willingness to skewer liberals and view him as the most entertaining politician in their lifetime. There is a kind of rebel factor: Many of these voters are the children of lifelong Democrats. They find Trump's anti-establishment energy subversive and appealing. Some people think this shift is about assimilation — that these voters are moving toward Republicans because they are becoming part of the white, non-Hispanic mainstream. Based on conversations with hundreds of these voters, I do not think it's that simple. David: That's fascinating. How do you think Hispanic identity is helping drive their shift to the right? Jennifer: Some of it is about disillusionment — a belief that despite years of promises, the Democratic Party has not demonstrably improved their lives. Many voters will tick off a long list of grievances — on the economy, public schools and medical costs — and then recite a version of "What do we have to lose?" Many of these voters believe deeply in a bootstrap mentality. They are convinced that if they play by the rules in the United States, they can create prosperous lives. And they believe that Republicans are more focused on law and order than Democrats are. It also has to do with a kind of permission structure. In the Rio Grande Valley, for instance, it became easier for Latino voters to support Trump once they saw many of their peers doing the same. The growth of Hispanic evangelical churches across the country and conservative online influencers also plays a role here. (Related: A recent Morning newsletter explained the importance of peer effects for voters.) Migrants near Lukeville, Ariz.  Rebecca Noble for The New York Times David: For a long time, many politicians from both parties assumed that Democrats would gain Latino support by supporting high immigration. But that doesn't seem quite right. Polls show that about 40 percent of Latino voters prefer the Republican approach to immigration. Democrats can't lose so much of the Latino vote and easily win national elections. What do you hear about immigration? Jennifer: The presumption that immigration would drive Latino voters makes some sense. The hard line that California Republicans took against immigration 30 years ago helped turn the state into a Democratic stronghold. A similar backlash happened in Arizona in the 2010s. But something seems to have changed. Today, many Latinos see themselves not as a part of the group of immigrants that Trump is disparaging, but rather as Americans. Trump has quite effectively divided the world into us versus them. The new immigrants are the outsiders. One thing Hispanic Trump supporters often point out is that Democrats have not passed sweeping changes for undocumented immigrants — and, in fact, Ronald Reagan was the last president to do so. So again, they ask: What do we have to lose with Republicans? Still, I'd caution against viewing immigration as the driving force behind the shift because jobs and the economy come up much more often. David: Whatever the explanation, I've changed my long-term expectations. I once thought the roughly 70 percent Barack Obama received from Latinos was a new normal. I don't anymore. What about you? Jennifer: Remember that Latinos have been less reliable partisans than Black and white voters. Now, slightly more than 60 percent of Hispanics consider themselves Democrats — in line with the levels during George W. Bush's 2004 re-election, a high-water mark. Of course, Bush took a very different approach with Hispanic voters than Trump. Going forward, I would be surprised if there aren't more surprises. Related: Jennifer spent time at a Las Vegas barbershop talking to its owners and customers about whether Democrats could win back some Latino men. ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS Columbia University At Columbia.  Bing Guan for The New York Times Protesters at Columbia have occupied a building on campus and built barricades. They used furniture to block doors and draped banners from windows. Hours before, the school began suspending students who had failed to leave a pro-Palestinian encampment. Many students left the protest before the deadline. The occupied building has been a part of campus movements since the 1960s. More on Campus Protests At the University of Texas, state police troopers in riot gear broke up a protest encampment for the second time in a week and arrested 50 people. In California, protesters have occupied a building at Cal Poly Humboldt, a small campus in the redwoods, for more than a week. Read about the intense demonstration. Representative Ilhan Omar said that some Jewish students were "pro-genocide." Many criticized her statement. Universities are asking: What makes a protest antisemitic? Israel-Hamas War Israel has offered to accept the release of fewer Hamas-held hostages — 33 instead of at least 40 — in exchange for a cease-fire. President Biden spoke with the leaders of Egypt and Qatar, seeking to pressure Hamas to accept a deal. More International News Sudanese refugees in Chad. Dan Kitwood/Getty Images In Sudan, a paramilitary group has encircled a city. If it falls, the group could control the Darfur region, and some are worried about mass killings. Read an explanation of the war. Biden and Mexico's president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, pledged joint action to reduce illegal immigration into the U.S. Flash floods and mudslides deluged a Kenyan village, killing at least 45 people. Germany hopes hydrogen will help it be a leader in green energy. The U.S. dollar is strong. That means other major currencies are falling. 2024 Elections Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Jim Wilson/The New York Times Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gotten onto the ballot in just three states. His campaign is spending millions to try to reach more. Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota, said in a book that she had shot and killed her puppy, The Guardian reports. Late-night hosts talked about it. A retired Navy officer whose Florida campaign has ties to Kevin McCarthy is challenging Representative Matt Gaetz in the Republican primary. Gaetz led the effort to unseat McCarthy as the House speaker. Other Big Stories Four law officers were killed and four others wounded as they tried to serve a warrant in Charlotte, N.C. The shooter was also killed. Paramount's chief executive is stepping down as the company considers a merger with the media company Skydance. Four zebras escaped from a trailer in Washington State on Sunday. A rodeo clown helped corral them, but one remains on the loose. Opinions The hostage featured in Hamas's latest propaganda video is alive because of his mother's tireless advocacy, Sarah Wildman writes. China's human rights record gives the U.S. every right to demand that TikTok find a different owner, Tim Wu writes. Here's a column by Paul Krugman on Trump's economic theories. A subscription to match the variety of your interests. News. Games. Recipes. Product reviews. Sports reporting. A New York Times All Access subscription covers all of it and more. Subscribe today. MORNING READS The Hamptons Streamliner. Blade Air Mobility, Inc. Weekenders: Will New Yorkers pay $275 for a luxury ticket to the Hamptons … by bus? 'Super-agers': Why some older people have incredible memories. Stowaway: A cat went from Utah to California in an Amazon returns package. Workout: Physical fitness can improve the mental health of young people, a study found. Next trip: Spend 36 hours on Maui. The Ethicist: Her husband asked her not to tell anyone they used donor eggs. Should she? Lives Lived: Archie Cooley was the exuberant architect of a passing-crazy offense at Mississippi Valley State University, a historically Black school where he coached the future Hall of Famer Jerry Rice. Cooley died at 85. SPORTS N.B.A: The Denver Nuggets eliminated the Los Angeles Lakers. N.H.L.: The Florida Panthers beat the Tampa Bay Lightning to advance in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Soccer: The U.S. and Mexico are withdrawing their joint bid for the 2027 Women's World Cup. They plan to file a bid to host the 2031 edition of the event instead. ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS Preparing for a race. Maria Sturm for The New York Times Hyrox, a sporting event founded in Germany, is becoming more popular. The race combines running with other movements, like the weighted lunge and the burpee broad jump. It often takes about 90 minutes to complete, although elite racers can finish in under an hour. More than 175,000 people are expected to participate in the more than 60 races Hyrox has organized for 2024, and races are selling out within minutes. Read more about them. More on culture Natalie Joy and Nick Viall. Sarah Partain Nick Viall looked for love as a "Bachelor." He found his wife on Instagram. A reader asks The Times's chief fashion critic to explain the enduring popularity of cargo pants. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Melina Hammer for The New York Times Use your sourdough starter with this no-knead bread recipe. Eat at the 25 best restaurants in Washington, D.C. Cook asparagus in a new way. Buy a good picnic blanket. Maximize space in a tiny bedroom. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was raunchy. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? 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