Why America's allies might want to prep a plan B

View in browser  January 12, 2024       Stephen Collinson, Caitlin Hu and Shelby Rose 'NATO is dead' If Donald Trump wins the Iowa caucuses Monday, it will come as a rude wake-up call for US allies hoping they'd not have to think about him returning to power.    A victory for Trump in the first official voting of the 2024 campaign would be a huge step toward his third-straight Republican nomination and a toss-up White House race with President Joe Biden in November.   If he wins a second term, Trump would surely be even more of a force of global instability than he was the first time around – and America's allies would be in his sights. Just how rough things could get is borne out in new revelations about a meeting Trump had while still president with senior European Union officials four years ago.   Thierry Breton, EU commissioner for internal market, recalled the former president's remarks anecdotally at an event on Tuesday at the European Parliament.   "You need to understand that if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and to support you," Trump told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2020, according to Breton, who was also present at the meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos, his office confirmed.    Breton's office also confirmed he recalled at the Tuesday event Trump saying, "NATO is dead," and "we will quit NATO" at the 2020 meeting. "And by the way, you owe me $400 billion, because you didn't pay, you Germans, what you had to pay for defense," Trump also allegedly said, according to Breton.   A Trump spokesperson did not immediately respond to CNN's request for comment.    But Biden campaign spokesperson Ammar Moussa jumped on the remarks, saying, "Donald Trump's threats to weaken NATO and side with Vladimir Putin undermine America's strength on the global stage and threaten our national security. As president, Donald Trump spent four years cozying up to dictators and making our country less safe."   NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg brushed off anxiety about Trump. "No other major power has as many friends and allies as the US does in NATO," Stoltenberg said. "It makes the US safer and stronger to have more than 30 allies in NATO, and therefore I'm confident US will continue to support NATO."   We'll see. But Europe should probably start making a Plan B. Sign up for Meanwhile in America The world and America The US and UK carried out airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen   Israel is facing a genocide case at the International Criminal Court    Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman   Meanwhile in America ... Hunter Biden pleads not guilty to federal tax charges   Another winter storm is about to wallop the US    And some Republicans are threatening to shut down the US government    'We can right the ship' Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis clashed in a fiery CNN debate on Wednesday night and dove straight back into campaigning the next morning. Ex-President Donald Trump, however, was off the trail in New York, at the closing arguments of his civil fraud trial.    His absence underscored the dual reality of the Republican White House race. Everyone apart from Trump is running an orthodox campaign. But the ex-president is spending more time in courtrooms as he tries to portray his multiple legal perils as evidence of political persecution against him.   Haley, Trump's former US ambassador to the United Nations, was campaigning in a suburb of the Iowa capital Des Moines (above), where she beseeched GOP voters to avoid the "chaos" that a second Trump term would bring.   "We can do this," said Haley, whose best chance of slowing Trump comes in the New Hampshire primary later in the month. "This is a moment in time when we can right the ship."   Haley's event was tightly controlled. The press was kept at a distance and she didn't even answer questions from her supporters. But the real purpose of these 11th-hour events is to boost turnout. Everyone attending her meeting got a card to fill in (below) to allow campaign staff to identify them and make sure they show up on Monday night.  The caucuses that came in from the cold For Iowans, extreme weather is a fact of life.   Summers bring oppressive heat and tornadoes while perishing cold and blizzards make winter feel like it lasts forever. But on election night Monday, the weather will be brutal even by Iowa standards, with a fierce Arctic snap forecast to send temperatures plunging.   Since Iowa uses a caucus system that requires voters to leave their homes in the evening and gather in community centers, firehouses, bars, school gymnasiums and public libraries to choose their candidates, this could be a problem.    Campaign workers may need to go door knocking to coax their voters outside. This could boost a candidate like DeSantis, who invested heavily in a statewide ground game. But Trump has also built a get-out-the-vote machine — unlike in the 2016 caucuses when he and his team barely had a clue how it all worked. Until recently, Haley was lagging in this area, but her endorsement by the powerful Americans for Prosperity Action group gave her access to a huge political network that could keep her viable in the state.   Haley, who is from balmy South Carolina, confessed Thursday at an event outside Des Moines that she was struggling to comprehend the cold, and that her two adult kids who are traveling with her had never seen so much snow.    "On the 15th, on Monday, it's going to be so cold, I don't even know what negative 15 is!," she said, referring to forecast Fahrenheit temperatures – which would make it the coldest caucus night in history, especially if windchills reach the predicted -40 degree mark.   A snowstorm this week already disrupted the run-in to the caucuses, forcing candidates to cancel events as a winter storm barreled across the prairies. A car carrying Vivek Ramaswamy, the long-shot GOP candidate, ended up in a ditch.    The Iowa campaign might have to take another snow day on Friday, with a fresh monster storm expected to dump up to 10 inches of snow. This will make it tough for candidates to barnstorm the state and force supporters to brave snowbound roads to see them.   Cancelled events may play into Trump's hands, since Haley and DeSantis – who also hails from sunnier climes – need to use every remaining hour to try to cut the former president's wide lead in the polls. Snow piles up outside Drake University's Olmsted Center ahead of CNN's Republican presidential debate in Des Moines, Iowa, on January 10, 2023. (Will Lanzoni/CNN) Thanks for reading.   On Friday, President Joe Biden travels to Allentown, Pennsylvania, to hold an economic event before arriving in Delaware to spend the weekend. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) holds public hearings on the request for provisional measures in South Africa v. Israel.    On Saturday, Trump holds campaign events in Iowa. A "National March on Washington for Gaza" is held in DC. Taiwan holds a presidential election and an election for seats in the Legislative Yuan, the country's unicameral legislature. On Sunday, the Australian Open kicks off in Melbourne. The Annual Critics Choice Awards are held in Los Angeles.  Have a great weekend! Send us feedback: meanwhile@cnn.com   You are receiving this newsletter because you signed up for Meanwhile in America. To stop receiving this newsletter, unsubscribe or sign up to manage your CNN account   Learn more about the CNN app |  Get CNN web alerts  |  Sign up for a free CNN account   ® © 2024 Cable News Network. A Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All Rights Reserved. 1050 Techwood Drive NW, Atlanta, GA 30318