The Morning: How Trump is helping liberals abroad

Plus, a possible government shutdown, the U.S. economy and Covid's fifth anniversary.

View in browser|nytimes.com March 13, 2025 Good morning. We explain how Trump is inadvertently helping some liberal leaders abroad. We're also covering a possible government shutdown, the U.S. economy and Covid's fifth anniversary. Mark Carney, leader of the Liberal Party of Canada.  Justin Tang/The Canadian Press, via Associated Press Rally 'round the flag By Lauren Jackson I'm an editor on The Morning. President Trump's trade war is escalating. Yesterday, the European Union and Canada announced billions of dollars in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. There's a good reason nations are fighting back: Opposing Trump is helping world leaders domestically. Trump's methods — insisting on tariffs, threatening to buy territory, insulting allies — have infuriated voters in Britain, Mexico, Ukraine and elsewhere. In Canada, for instance, the Liberal Party mounted an extraordinary comeback against the Conservatives this week. Mark Carney, the incoming prime minister, helped revive his party with a promise to oppose Trump: "Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way, shape or form," Carney said of the president's threat to annex his country. "Make no mistake. In trade as in hockey, Canada will win." Source: Ipsos | Data is from September 2021 to Feb. 25, 2025. | By The New York Times Trump has given some populations abroad an adversary to mobilize against. Now they're backing leaders who take a stand against him. It's a phenomenon known in political science as the "rally 'round the flag" effect. When a country faces a crisis, public support for the leader or the current governing party often rises. Below, I'll explain how Trump's antagonism is actually helping some of his opponents. What is happening Trump is fracturing America's alliances. But the world leaders involved? They're doing fine. Trump imposed global tariffs on metal and announced a 25 percent levy on all goods from Mexico and Canada. He fought with Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office. Soon after, the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, welcomed Zelensky in London with a hug. Mr. Starmer has continued to back Ukraine. In each of these cases, the leaders and parties who stood up to Trump saw a lift in their domestic approval ratings, as my colleague Mark Landler has noted. Canada: The governing Liberals were set for a major election defeat. But in the last few weeks, as Trump instituted tariffs, the party's polling has rebounded by at least 10 points. In the race for prime minister, Carney is now tied — and running ahead in some polls. The escalating trade war may simply induce Canadians to dig in. President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico Alfredo Estrella/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Mexico: President Claudia Sheinbaum, the country's leftist leader, saw her support rise to 80 percent in one poll as she negotiated with Trump on tariffs. Tens of thousands rallied in Mexico City last weekend to celebrate her success in delaying the levies. Britain: Starmer has been careful to stay close to Trump. He hasn't retaliated on tariffs. But he loudly backed Zelensky after Trump withdrew support for the war. As a result, the prime minister's ratings rose. British voters now see Starmer's Labour Party as better at dealing with foreign policy and defense challenges than the Conservative Party is. (Voters usually regard the Conservatives as better at defense.) Ukraine: Zelensky's fight with Trump may have saved his job. As the war dragged on, his political opponents saw an opportunity to oust him. After his trip to Washington, his approval ratings rose, according to two recent polls, and his opponents have said publicly that now is not the time for elections. Why this is happening People don't like to ditch their leaders in a crisis, research shows. The rallying phenomenon can shift the balance of power both within and between countries. Several current spats qualify, said Matthew Baum, a public policy professor at Harvard: "Is national honor challenged? Check. Is a country's security threatened? Check. Has a single adversary emerged? Check." The inverse is also true in cases of weak leadership. In Colombia, President Gustavo Petro sparred with Trump over deportation flights. His decision to send back planes full of deportees surprised even his inner circle. Then Trump retaliated, ordering a 25 percent tariff on all Colombian goods and threatening to tank the country's economy. Petro folded. His handling of the crisis fractured his governing coalition. "It's hard for him to spin that he's a strong leader standing up for the national honor," Baum said. Perhaps Petro's example offers Trump a way to overcome his most stubborn opponents. In Canada, for instance, Trump could eventually make it too costly for Carney to fight. In Brazil, a target of the metal tariffs, the government signaled that it would not retaliate. "President Lula said to remain calm at this time," Brazil's economy minister said. "We've negotiated under worse conditions than this." What could happen next Trump is focused on calling the shots. He seems to believe, The Times has reported, that forceful (and sometimes erratic) decisions give him an advantage against other nations in negotiations. In some ways, they do. Leaders elsewhere don't get to set the agenda; they're forced to react. That means the world is dealing on Trump's terms, at least for now. Opposing Trump is a delicate art. Still, liberal leaders who do it well are finding success. That may not last: The rally effect is sometimes temporary. Covid initially increased domestic support for many world leaders, but their standing soon fell — in some cases to prepandemic levels. In the meantime, though, the leaders who get it right can expect a boost. For more Trump's election has transformed the fortunes of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, who has now assumed a leadership role in Europe. This past weekend, Elon Musk and Marco Rubio threatened Poland on social media, BBC News reports. In Greenland's parliamentary elections, the winners were a party critical of Trump's rhetoric, but the results also showed the island was divided over seeking independence. THE LATEST NEWS Government Shutdown Chuck Schumer Eric Lee/The New York Times Senate Democrats say they will not support a Republican-written bill to fund the government through the fall. They say the legislation gives Trump and Musk too much leeway to slash the federal government. Democrats want Republicans to pass a one-month extension while they work out a compromise, but that's unlikely: House Republicans left town on Tuesday. Without a spending deal, the federal government will shut down on Friday night. Government Overhaul Trump's cuts reduced the Education Department's civil rights division by half. Musk's cost-cutting team has started obscuring the details of its actions on its website. The Times was still able to detect another batch of mistakes. The federal agency dedicated to mental illness and addiction could lose about half its staff to cuts this week. More on Politics The E.P.A.'s leader, Lee Zeldin, plans to rescind more than two dozen protections against air and water pollution. The agency's new mission, Zeldin said, is to "lower the cost of buying a car, heating a home and running a business." For the second time, the U.S. abruptly cleared out all the migrants it had taken to Guantánamo and returned them to the United States. The reasons for the move were unclear. Trump pardoned an imprisoned former Tennessee state senator who was two weeks into a 21-month sentence for campaign fraud. Trial-court judges have blocked parts of the president's agenda with injunctions that apply across the country. Some conservatives want to limit that power. Military veterans are scrambling to bring Afghan allies to the U.S. before Trump's travel ban comes into effect. Activist Arrest ICE investigators have searched the internet for campus protesters whom they could accuse of supporting Hamas. Mahmoud Khalil, a Palestinian activist and Columbia graduate, was the first they arrested. Protesters gathered outside a Manhattan courthouse yesterday for the first hearing in Khalil's case. A judge ordered the government to let Khalil speak privately with his lawyers, which he had not been allowed to do. Administrators at Columbia University told students who were not U.S. citizens to avoid publishing work on Gaza or risk punishment from the Trump administration. Yale suspended a pro-Palestinian scholar after an A.I.-powered news site accused her of having links to terrorists. Business and Economy Inflation eased more than analysts expected last month, driven by a drop in airfares. America's largest companies, including Walmart and Meta, scaled back diversity, equity and inclusion goals in recent months, a Times analysis found. Trump's trade wars amount to a huge gamble: Americans will endure months or years of economic pain for the distant hope of re-industrializing the heartland, David Sanger writes. Other Big Stories In Shanghai. Qilai Shen for The New York Times "Let's not talk about it": China endured the longest Covid lockdowns in the world. Its citizens are still grappling with what they lost. Vladimir Putin, dressed in fatigues, visited Kursk to cheer the troops trying to eject Ukrainian forces from the Russian border region. Space X, because of a technical issue, postponed a mission that would return two NASA astronauts who have been in orbit for more than nine months. These maps show where U.S. measles outbreaks are spreading. In one Texas school district, only 46 percent of kindergartners received their measles-mumps-rubella vaccine. Opinions Take Gail Collins's news quiz to see how well you've been following the Trump administration. The more Christian nationalists embrace politics, the more they will push younger generations away from religion, Jessica Grose argues. Gazans don't have time to care about politics when they have to worry about where their next meal is coming from, Megan Stack writes. Here's a column by Jamelle Bouie on constitutional crises. Save up to 75% on Games. Our best offer won't last. Love to play? Discover all our games. Subscribe to New York Times Games today and save up to 75% on your first year — improve your Wordle strategy with Wordle Bot, reach Genius on Spelling Bee, plus more. Come play with us. MORNING READS Pandemic artifacts in New York. Daniel Terna for The New York Times Stickers, screens and masks: Reminders of Covid are everywhere in New York. Lunar eclipse: Earth's shadow will swallow the moon tonight, turning our satellite into a striking red sphere. Here's how to watch. Travel: Ever wonder what happens to your luggage after you check in for you flight? Follow one bag's journey. Most clicked yesterday: The colors of this snowy owl have enthralled and mystified bird watchers. Lives Lived: Selma Miriam was a self-described unhappy housewife until she divorced her husband, came out as a lesbian and founded the feminist vegetarian restaurant Bloodroot. She died at 89. SPORTS Women's soccer: The U.S. national team star Mallory Swanson will not play for the Chicago Stars in their N.W.S.L. season opener tomorrow because of personal reasons, the team said. N.F.L.: Players received $452 million in performance-based pay last season. See the top earners. M.L.B.: The league pulled more hats from its online store after a new design unintentionally evoked vulgar phrases. ARTS AND IDEAS Chantal Jahchan We spent a lot of time online during the pandemic. As such, we consumed, and participated in, a number of memes. Think Stanley Tucci's Negroni, the sudden ubiquity of sea shanties, the mysterious monolith in Utah and a lawyer's Zoom cat filter. The Times has put together a retrospective of the memes and online trends that brought us joy in the dark days of Covid lockdown. More on culture The New York Philharmonic, conducted by Gustavo Dudamel, will premiere an unpublished five-minute piece by Maurice Ravel. "Netflix actually picked up this show by accident," John Mulaney joked on his new late-night show. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Sang An for The New York Times Bake Nigella Lawson's simple but deeply pleasurable Chocolate Guinness cake. Organize your cleaning supplies. Try Korean skin care. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. The pangram for the 2,500th Spelling Bee was fabulous. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — Lauren Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. 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