The Morning: The next Congress

Plus, Donald Trump, Justin Trudeau and 52 Places to Go in 2025.

View in browser|nytimes.com January 7, 2025 Good morning. Today, my colleague Catie Edmondson explains the divisions within Congress. We're also covering Donald Trump, Justin Trudeau and 52 Places to Go in 2025. —David Leonhardt A joint session of Congress. Eric Lee/The New York Times A House divided By Catie Edmondson I cover Congress. Congress certified President-elect Donald Trump's victory yesterday. Now that Republicans will hold the coveted "trifecta" — the White House, the Senate and the House — they'll have their way in Washington, right? Maybe. The success of the Trump administration will hinge on congressional Republicans' ability to stay united. It won't be easy. In the House, Speaker Mike Johnson, who was re-elected on Friday, will have the smallest majority in history: 217 to 215. That means every bill Republicans pass will need nearly unanimous support from his famously fractious conference. In today's newsletter, I'll break down some of the disagreements that could define the new Congress — and potentially derail Trump's agenda. Funding the government Mike Johnson  Kent Nishimura for The New York Times Spending is the issue that most divided House Republicans in recent years. Many of them say they came to Congress to cut federal spending and rein in the nation's debt. So, unable to unite his conference around a spending plan, Johnson has instead relied on Democratic votes to pass important measures, from stopgap bills to avert government shutdowns to the aid package lawmakers approved for Ukraine. He argued such an approach was justified because he was dealing with a Democratic Senate and White House. No longer. Because Democrats are unlikely to vote for the Republican majority's bills, Johnson will need to bring his whole conference along. But any measure that wins over the most anti-spending Republicans could alienate more centrist Republicans — and vice versa. The lines can be fuzzy. Most House Republicans believe that the government should spend less. But they split over which programs should be slashed. Every state delegation has its own prerogatives to protect: New York Republicans, for example, resist cuts to Amtrak, while Iowa Republicans reject G.O.P. efforts to cut biofuel tax credits. Then there are ideological differences between hard-liners in safe seats who want to shutter entire agencies and the pragmatists in swing districts who view those plans as politically toxic. Events will test intraparty comity almost immediately. The nation is set to default on its debt as early as January unless lawmakers raise or suspend the borrowing limit, a move ultraconservatives refused to support in December despite Trump's urging. After that, Congress will hit another government funding deadline in March. Even if House Republicans find a compromise, they must win approval in the Senate. Republicans there — especially centrists like Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, who will chair the Appropriations Committee — have less appetite for giant spending cuts. One solution could be for House leaders to accept the higher spending levels set by the Senate and try to get Democrats to supply some votes. That would most likely infuriate the hard-right Republicans. The reconciliation bill Senator Rick Scott, flanked by House and Senate Republicans.  Kent Nishimura/Getty Images The big marquee fight this year is going to be Republicans' drive to reshape the nation's tax, budget and immigration policies through a process called reconciliation. It allows the Senate to pass bills with a simple majority, rather than the filibuster-proof 60 votes often needed for other measures. Congressional Republicans believe that this is their best chance to ram through much of Trump's agenda. They are eyeing one mammoth bill that would increase the nation's borrowing limit, extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts, cut federal spending and impose a wide-ranging immigration crackdown. That is a lot of pressure to put on a single piece of legislation. And the reconciliation process is unwieldy. Some members of the House Freedom Caucus, the ultraconservative clutch of lawmakers, have said they won't support a reconciliation bill that ends up costing money. That means expensive measures will need to be offset by huge spending cuts. Extending the Trump tax cuts alone would cost roughly $4 trillion over a decade, for instance. But moderate Republicans in both chambers aren't interested in crippling programs like Medicaid and SNAP, two frequent G.O.P. targets. And Republicans will have to agree on immigration policies that have bitterly divided them since the election. One wing of the party wants to recruit high-skilled workers to keep America competitive. The other thinks those workers take Americans' jobs. How will Johnson face these problems with a one-vote margin? He deadpanned in a news conference in December that he'd had a lot of practice working with a tiny majority: "That's our custom." THE LATEST NEWS Trump Transition Kamala Harris and Mike Johnson. Eric Lee/The New York Times Congress certified Trump's victory in an uneventful ceremony — a stark difference from four years ago, when Trump's supporters stormed the Capitol to disrupt the vote. Trump lawyers asked the Justice Department and a federal judge to block Jack Smith from releasing his report on the classified documents investigation. A judge denied Trump's latest attempt to postpone his criminal sentencing, scheduled for Friday in New York. Trump could escalate his effort to a New York appeals court. The judge has indicated that Trump will not get jail time. Absent any real penalties, the jury verdict is its own form of punishment for Trump, Maggie Haberman writes. More on Politics The Biden administration has moved to ban medical debt from credit reports. The future of the rule is uncertain with Trump assuming office later this month. A federal judge held Rudy Giuliani in contempt of court for failing to turn over his personal assets to two Georgia poll workers who won a defamation lawsuit against him. The Pentagon has reached a settlement with tens of thousands of people who were dismissed from the military because of their sexuality. Jimmy Carter's body will arrive in Washington today for three days of tributes. He will lie in state at the Capitol ahead of a formal state funeral on Thursday. Canada Justin Trudeau Cole Burston for The New York Times Justin Trudeau resigned as the leader of Canada's Liberal Party, and plans to step down as prime minister once his party finds a new leader. Trudeau's popularity fell sharply last year as housing prices rose and Canada's health system faltered. Members of his own party had called on him to step aside. Canada is set to hold a national election before October. Polls show the Conservative Party with a double-digit lead. Trudeau became a global figure of liberalism when he took office in 2015. See a timeline of his career. Middle East The U.S. will allow humanitarian groups to help provide basic services in Syria, including electricity and sanitation, without running afoul of sanctions. Syria's interim government has moved quickly to change school textbooks, removing references to the Assad regime and images of pre-Islamic gods. A top U.S. envoy said Israel would fully withdraw from southern Lebanon, as called for in cease-fire agreement. More International News A 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck a region near one of Tibet's holiest cities, killing at least 93 people, according to Chinese state media. Pope Francis appointed a nun to lead the department that oversees Catholic religious orders. She is the first woman to hold a top spot in a Vatican office. Other Big Stories In Washington, D.C. Eric Lee/The New York Times A winter storm left a trail of heavy snow from Kansas to Washington, D.C., disrupting flights and knocking out power. (See photos from the storm.) A person with severe bird flu died in Louisiana, the first human death from the virus in the U.S. The patient was infected through exposure to birds, not from another person, officials said. The U.S. released 11 Guantánamo prisoners to a rehabilitation program in Oman. Just 15 men remain in the camp's prison. U.S. Steel and Japan's Nippon Steel sued the U.S. in a last-ditch attempt to revive their merger, which President Biden blocked last week. A group of about 200 editorial workers at The Athletic, The Times's sports news website, asked The Times to recognize them as part of the newspaper's union. Opinions Syria and Iran have long had a grip on Lebanese politics. With Assad gone and Hezbollah weakened, Lebanon has a chance to embrace a modern, diverse democracy, Michel Helou writes. Biden's signature climate bill focused too much on companies. The U.S. needs climate programs that benefit the working class — like cheaper clean energy and more mass transit, Daniel Aldana Cohen and Thea Riofrancos argue. Here is a column by Michelle Goldberg on Elon Musk's intervention in British politics. A subscription to match the variety of your interests. News. Games. Recipes. Product reviews. Sports reporting. A New York Times All Access subscription covers all of it and more. Subscribe today. MORNING READS Maurizio Cattelan and Pierpaolo Ferrari for The New York Times FOOD, MORE, NOW: Some dog owners think their pets can speak to them using "talking buttons." Scientists are less convinced. Danger: Poisonous snakes bite millions of people each year. In rural areas where anti-venom is hard to find, many of those bites prove fatal. Ask Well: "Can estrogen cream reverse skin aging?" Pollution: Exposure to lead from mining probably lowered I.Q. levels in the Roman Empire. Lives Lived: Friedrich St. Florian's design for the World War II Memorial on the National Mall in Washington inspired criticism as well as praise. He died at 91. SPORTS N.F.L.: Multiple coaching vacancies have opened since the regular season ended on Sunday. Read about the coaching carousel. College football: North Dakota State won the F.C.S. national championship in a 35-32 thriller against previously undefeated Montana State. ARTS AND IDEAS Where will you travel this year? The Times has published 52 Places to Go, an annual feature that highlights destinations across the U.S. and around the globe. Some made the list because of anniversaries, like southwest England, which is celebrating the 250th birthday of Jane Austen. Others are newly accessible, like the Nangma Valley of Pakistan, which now features an easy camping-based trekking route through its Yosemite-like granite peaks. You can explore the full list here. More on culture What do movie producers actually do? Bad Bunny, the world-conquering Latin superstar, discusses why his new album is filled with traditional sounds and rhythms from his homeland. "It's like making your ex D.J. your wedding," Jimmy Kimmel said of Kamala Harris presiding over the certification of Trump's win. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Gentl and Hyers for The New York Times Boil and blitz kale with fried garlic, Parmesan and olive oil for a silky pasta sauce. Hit peak fitness after 40. Write in a journal, and keep at it, with these tips. Buy an affordable Android phone. Replace these household essentials. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was femininity. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. 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