The Morning: Democrats who won

Plus, climate negotiations, escaped monkeys and Andean ice harvesting.

View in browser|nytimes.com November 11, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering this year's successful Democratic campaigns — as well as climate negotiations, escaped monkeys and Andean ice harvesting. Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Democrat. Holly Andres for The New York Times Democratic winners In a very bad year for their party, some Democrats still figured out how to win tough races. Marcy Kaptur seems to have won a 22nd term in Congress despite representing an Ohio district that has voted for Donald Trump three straight times. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington State was re-elected in a House district where Trump thumped Kamala Harris. Jared Golden of Maine is leading in a similarly red district. In Senate races, Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin), Ruben Gallego (Arizona), Jacky Rosen (Nevada) and Elissa Slotkin (Michigan) prevailed or are leading in states that Trump won. How? These Democrats ran on strikingly similar themes — part progressive, part moderate, part conservative. Above all, they avoided talking down to voters and telling them they were wrong to be frustrated about the economy, immigration and post-pandemic disorder. "The fundamental mistake people make is condescension," Gluesenkamp Perez told my colleague Annie Karni after the election. In today's newsletter, I'll focus on three issues that helped these candidates win. 1. Immigration Many Democrats have been in denial about immigration. Some initially argued that immigration didn't soar under President Biden. Others claimed Biden's policies weren't the cause. Still others dismissed concerns about strained social services and crowded schools as Republican misinformation. (Many Republicans, to be clear, did tell lies about immigrants.) But Biden did spark a huge immigration wave. He encouraged more people to come to the U.S. and loosened entry rules. Sure enough, immigration surged to its highest levels in many decades. Source: Congressional Budget Office | By The New York Times If anyone doubted Biden's role, more proof came this year when he tightened policy, and immigration plummeted. The Democrats who won tough races recognized that their party had lost credibility on this issue. In one of Kaptur's ads, she called out "the far left" for "ignoring millions illegally crossing the border." In a Gallego ad, he said, "Arizonans know — on the border, there is no plan." Harris's campaign emphasized border security, too, but she was Biden's vice president and had spent the 2020 campaign calling for many of the changes he implemented. She never explained why she changed her mind. Biden hasn't explained his reversal, either. 2. The economy Democrats who won tough races ran to the left on economic issues. They sounded like blue-collar populists, fed up with high prices, slow wage growth, corporate greed and unfair Chinese competition. Harris, by contrast, sounded like an establishment centrist, even citing a Goldman Sachs report during her debate with Trump. Slotkin, the senator-elect in Michigan, spoke of how her mother had been "gouged by the insurance companies." In one of Golden's ads, he cracked open a lobster with his hands while promising to lower health care costs. In two difficult upstate New York races, Josh Riley called for tariffs and blasted corporate greed, while Pat Ryan focused on high housing costs, my colleague Nicholas Fandos notes. A screen grab from Jared Golden's campaign ad.  In Ohio, Kaptur said the following: "They're ruining our country — the billionaires and corporations who send our jobs overseas. Their religion is greed, and their Bible is corporate profits." Senator Sherrod Brown offered a similar message in Ohio and lost — yet ran 7 percentage points ahead of Harris. This populism was not purely progressive, though. It also tried to address voters' concerns about the Democratic Party's fondness for big government. Golden, for example, criticized "Biden's aggressive spending agenda." Baldwin bragged about protecting a small Wisconsin cheesemaker against federal regulations. The common strand was opposition to concentrated power, be it from big businesses, foreign governments or Washington. 3. Culture wars Democrats hoped that Republican extremism on abortion would swing millions of votes. That didn't happen partly because many voters see each party as too extreme in its own ways. Many voters do worry about the Republican Party's opposition to abortion, its dismissal of climate change and its support for book bans. But the same voters worry that Democrats are hostile to policing, obsessed with race and gender and opposed to oil and gas. The Democrats who won hard races portrayed themselves as occupying the reasonable middle — what Golden called "Maine common sense." They criticized Republicans as wrong on abortion, but only as a secondary campaign theme. They embraced the police and the military, running ads with people in uniform. On the environment, the candidates tried to claim the center; Kaptur called out corporations that "pollute our Great Lakes," while Golden boasted that he had opposed electric-vehicle mandates. Gluesenkamp Perez voted against Biden's cancellation of college debt, a policy that many working-class people find unfair. And now? I spent a lot of time this year tracking the Democratic campaigns in swing states and districts, and I was repeatedly struck by how similar their messages were. They were feisty, populist and patriotic. They distanced themselves from elite cultural liberalism. They largely ignored Trump. At the end of her interview with Gluesenkamp Perez, my colleague Annie asked whether the party could change. "It's a lot easier to look outward, to blame and demonize other people, instead of looking in the mirror and seeing what we can do," Gluesenkamp Perez replied. "So who knows?" But if Democrats are looking for a successful playbook, they already have the beginnings of one. Related: Republicans are getting closer to a trifecta — control of the House, Senate and presidency. See the latest House results. THE LATEST NEWS Politics As Trump returns to power, his adversaries are bracing for his revenge. The abortion rights movement won in many states — even some that voted for Trump. Where does it go from here? Palestinians are trying to win Trump's support through links with his daughter's extended family. COP29 Baku, Azerbaijan.  Sean Gallup/Getty Images World leaders gathering in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, for a global climate summit. Read why a petrostate is hosting this year's talks. Trump's win is sapping momentum from the summit as diplomats prepare for his pro-fossil-fuel agenda. International Hasan Imam, a Uyghur refugee. Sabiha Çimen/Magnum, for The New York Times After a daring escape from China, a Uyghur man discovered how far Beijing's power stretches. Videos of attacks on Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam have been spreading. Read what we know about what officials are calling antisemitic attacks — as well as incendiary chants and attacks by some Israelis. Shigeru Ishiba, Japan's prime minister, won a vote to remain as the country's leader. Haiti's ruling council fired its prime minister, adding to the country's turmoil. Chinese students started biking between cities just for fun. The authorities shut it down. Other Big Stories The Jennings Creek fire in New York.  Dakota Santiago for The New York Times Firefighters in New Jersey and New York are trying to contain wildfires. One New York State parks worker died in the effort. He was 18. Twenty-five of 43 monkeys that escaped an enclosure at a South Carolina research center were captured. The rest remain at large, officials said. Opinions To fulfill his mandate, Trump should change Biden's failed policies (such as immigration) and keep what's good (such as semiconductors), Oren Cass writes. Gail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss the Trump era — and how it never really ended. Here are columns by Ezra Klein on the seeds of Democrats' defeat and David French on how politics is like curling. MORNING READS Baltazar Ushca Roberto Chavez/API/Alamy Lives Lived: For 60 years, Baltazar Ushca trekked up Ecuador's tallest mountain twice a week to hack ice off a glacier with a pickax. He became known as the last Andean ice merchant. Ushca died at 80. Best view: On and around some of New York City's best known buildings, beehives are buzzing. Good news: A Colombian influencer made recycling cool. Tolls: A dad took his RV on a toll road in Virginia. It cost him $569, The Washington Post reports. Floor people: Why lying on the ground feels so good. Metropolitan Diary: Meat on the seat. Tetris: The game's inventor shares his other creations that didn't work. Keepsake: Do you have a favorite memento from your wedding? The Times wants to see it. SPORTS Coco Gauff, left. Matthew Stockman/Getty Images for WTA Tennis: Saudi Arabia, an authoritarian, conservative kingdom where women's rights are still in question, held the WTA Finals. Coco Gauff won. N.F.L.: The Lions escaped Houston with a win even though their quarterback, Jared Goff, threw five interceptions. It was a shocking Sunday of games. Men's college basketball: Florida's coach, Todd Golden, will stay at work while the school investigates sexual harassment complaints against him. N.B.A.: The Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo angered the Celtics' Jaylen Brown by pretending to offer a handshake. Sike! NBA ARTS AND IDEAS Mariko Reed Leis have a long history. Native Hawaiians used them to honor gods, treat illness and protect surfers. But a new generation of florists is reimagining them. Instead of importing flowers like orchids, local designers are using flowers native to the Hawaiian islands. Some are also making leis from sturdier stuff, such as ribbons and candy. See their work here. More on culture Mattel's latest dolls for the movie "Wicked" mistakenly listed a porn website on its packaging instead of a similar URL promoting the film. A book by a veterinary psychiatrist has become popular in France. The author put cats, not people, on the couch. Netflix and Lifetime are trying to make holiday movies sexy. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Rachel Vanni for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Samantha Seneviratne Bake banana muffins for breakfast with a pinch of cinnamon. Buy a good housewarming gift. Print pro-quality photos at home. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was acquaint. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018