Monday Briefing: What Trump means for the Middle East

Plus, what we know about clashes in Amsterdam.

View in browser|nytimes.com November 11, 2024 By Natasha Frost Good morning. We're covering the potential effects of another Trump presidency on the Middle East. Plus: Violence and chaos in Amsterdam. A billboard congratulating Donald Trump in Tel Aviv last week. Thomas Peter/Reuters What a Trump presidency means for the Middle East As president, Donald Trump was a staunch supporter of Israel, recognizing Jerusalem as its capital, cutting off aid to the U.N. agency that supports Palestinian refugees and presenting a peace plan that favored Israel. Yet he has also publicly called for the war in Gaza to stop, saying in April, "Israel has to be very careful, because you're losing a lot of the world." Members of Israel's right-wing government believe that a Trump administration will allow it to end its wars in Gaza and Lebanon on favorable terms. But the president-elect's comments about Israel's actions in Gaza have also led some on the Palestinian side to hold out hope that Trump may be swayed, and on Friday he had a call with Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the Palestinian Authority. We asked Patrick Kingsley, the Jerusalem bureau chief, to explain what may lie in store for the region. Donald Trump has promised in the past to bring peace to the Middle East. With the region in tumult, how plausible is that goal? When last in office, Donald Trump helped forge landmark diplomatic ties between Israel and three Arab countries, ties that remain intact. Once back in power, he may aim to forge a similar pact between Israel and Saudi Arabia. But he will find it far harder to seal a deal between Israel and the Palestinians — without which it will be impossible to achieve lasting peace in the region. And while it's likely that early in his tenure there will be cease-fires in Gaza and Lebanon, those truces would likely have been reached under a Harris presidency, too. What changes might we see for the relationship between Israel and the U.S.? Many on the Israeli right hope that a Trump presidency will give them greater political cover to install Jewish settlers in Gaza, entrench Israeli control over the West Bank, overhaul the Israeli judicial system and launch bigger strikes on Iran. But Trump is unpredictable, and his interests may not always align with Israel's. For example, he suggested last month that he would not support regime change in Iran, a goal for some Israeli leaders. How could Trump's approach to the war in Gaza differ from that of the Biden administration? Trump has said that he wants the war to end with a decisive Israeli victory. That suggests he would tolerate an even more forceful Israeli campaign than Biden. But equally, he may prove less patient with Israel if the war isn't ended quickly. What has Trump indicated about his vision for a postwar Gaza? Under a peace plan proposed by Trump during his last tenure, the entirety of Gaza would have become part of a Palestinian state. But a half-decade later, the Israeli government is even less likely to accept Palestinian sovereignty, particularly after the atrocities committed by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023. So Trump may ultimately prove more willing than Biden to accept Israeli civilian control over parts of the territory. More news from the region: Israel's military struck a house in northern Gaza where displaced families were sheltering, killing at least 34 people, according to the main emergency service in the territory. An Israeli strike on a village north of Beirut killed at least 23 people and wounded six others, Lebanon's health ministry said. A Biden administration deadline for Israel to improve humanitarian aid flow is days away, and a U.N.-backed panel warned that famine was imminent in the northern Gaza Strip. Qatar paused its role as a mediator in Gaza cease-fire talks, citing a deadlock. Donald Trump called for unity after declaring victory last week. Doug Mills/The New York Times Trump's allies and adversaries eye his next moves Eight years after his initial victory, Donald Trump returns to the White House with revenge on his mind. He spent much of the campaign focused on exacting "retribution" for all the ways he believed he had been wronged, leaving friends and foes alike anticipating a wave of payback after he takes office again in January. Whether he will carry out those threats is unclear. He may not go after the biggest figures, like President Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris, but allies expect him to pursue at least some of the targets he has singled out after years of multiple impeachments, investigations, indictments and lawsuits. More on Trump and diplomacy Taiwan appears to be preparing for a more delicate, possibly testy, relationship with Trump in his second term. Foreign leaders have rushed to ingratiate themselves with Trump. History suggests many of their efforts will fail. Trump's return to the U.S. presidency could spell a lonely and dangerous stretch for Europe. Trump's victory is part of a disillusionment with the world that emerged from the Cold War. Extra security measures have been deployed in Amsterdam. Robin Utrecht/EPA, via Shutterstock Chaos and clashes in Amsterdam Violence in Amsterdam after a soccer match between an Israeli team and a local opponent has rattled the city's Jewish and Muslim communities and drawn an international outcry. The police are scheduled to present a more detailed account this week. Here's what we know about the incidents. Though the exact sequence of events remains unclear, civic leaders in Amsterdam largely agree that incendiary and racist behavior by some Israeli fans stoked anger, and that multiple Israeli fans were assaulted across the city, in some cases by masked assailants. Some attackers seem to have singled out their victims for being Jewish. Effects: Five people were hospitalized, and dozens more had been injured, some with broken legs. The police said 63 people had been arrested. Prime Minister Dick Schoof plans to convene two meetings of ministers this week on the Amsterdam attacks and on antisemitism. Israeli officials organized flights to bring hundreds of soccer fans home. MORE TOP NEWS David Guttenfelder for The New York Times War in Ukraine: The Russian military has assembled 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, as it aims to reclaim Russian territory from Ukraine. Haiti: Garry Conille, a former U.N. official who was serving as Haiti's interim prime minister, has been fired by the country's ruling council. Pakistan: A suicide bombing killed at least 24 people in the restive Balochistan Province. A banned ethnic separatist group claimed responsibility. Sept. 11: A trial judge ruled that the U.S. defense secretary had not lawfully rescinded a government plea deal with Khalid Shaikh Mohammed. Prosecutors will appeal. Singapore: The orderly island is dealing with a messy cat problem. SPORTS NEWS Women's tennis: Saudi Arabia hosted the WTA Finals, part of its unstoppable advance into the world of sports. Soccer: What happens after Pep Guardiola's contract at Manchester City ends next year? MORNING READ Martina Tuaty for The New York Times "Jacky Dejo," a snowboarder, bikini model and child influencer turned entrepreneur, belongs to the first generation to grow up with social media and the multibillion-dollar creator economy that is redefining adolescence for girls. Jacky, as she is known, recently turned 18. Her fans — thousands of men had been following her through her teens — wished her well. "Happy birthday," one wrote. "I can't wait to see you without any clothes on." Lives lived: Baltazar Ushca, who for 60 years harvested ice from the glaciers of the Andes, gradually becoming known as the last in his profession and a national treasure in Ecuador, died last month at 80. CONVERSATION STARTERS Grammy nominations are out: Beyoncé, with 11 nods, leads a pack of contenders that includes Charli XCX, Billie Eilish, Kendrick Lamar and Post Malone. Here's the full list. The new old age: What should be expected of an intimate partner when a companion suffers a health crisis? Seniors and their families increasingly confront the question. Life after Tetris: The creator of the game opens up about his failed projects and his desire to design another hit. ARTS AND IDEAS Derek Abella A recipe for loneliness The consensus among scholars is clear: While there is little proof that using technology like smartphones and social networking apps directly makes people lonely, there is a strong correlation between the two, meaning that those who reported feeling lonely might be using tech in unhealthy ways. Brian Chen, who writes the Tech Fix column for The Times, explains what to know and what to do with your tech if you're feeling lonely. We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times. RECOMMENDATIONS Christopher Testani for The New York Times Cook: Try the classic Bolognese one reader describes as "the gold standard." Exercise: This beginner-friendly dumbbell routine helps build strength and improve your stability. Watch: Take your pick of the films we can't wait to see this season. Read: Embark on a literary tour of Shanghai. Play the Spelling Bee. And here are today's Mini Crossword and Wordle. You can find all our puzzles here. That's it for today's briefing. See you tomorrow. — Natasha Reach Natasha and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for Morning Briefing: Europe Edition from The New York Times. To stop receiving Morning Briefing: Europe Edition, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. 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