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miércoles, 6 de noviembre de 2024

Special Edition: Trump takes key swing states

Donald Trump is very likely to win the election, our forecasts show.
Morning Briefing: Europe Edition

November 6, 2024

Good morning. In this special edition of the briefing, we break down the latest results from the U.S. election.

Plus: What democracy looks like in a small Wisconsin community.

People in Times Square in Manhattan on election night. Karsten Moran for The New York Times

As votes are counted, Trump takes key swing states

As of early this morning, with votes still being counted, Donald Trump was ahead in the race to be the next president of the United States. His fellow Republicans won control of the Senate. Here's the latest.

In every state where most votes had been counted, Trump's performance was stronger than in 2020. He secured victory in Georgia and North Carolina, two critical swing states.

To win, Kamala Harris, his Democratic opponent, would probably need to sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump had an advantage in all three states.

If Trump is elected president for a second time, it will be a stunning political comeback for a man who less than four years ago was impeached for his role in a violent attack on Congress. He would be the second-ever president to serve nonconsecutive terms and the first to be elected after being convicted of a felony.

Analysis: Unhappiness with the country's direction and with President Biden's performance, especially on the economy and immigration, appears to have been a crucial factor in the results.

Forecast: "While it might be several hours until the race can be called, our estimates say Donald Trump is very likely to win the presidency," Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, writes.

2024

The latest news

  • After picking up seats in West Virginia and Ohio and winning an unexpectedly close race in Nebraska, Republicans had enough for a majority in the Senate. They are favored to win the House, pending a final vote count.
  • For the first time, two Black women will be in the Senate: Angela Alsobrooks, a Maryland Democrat, and Lisa Blunt Rochester, a Delaware Democrat.
  • Bomb threats against polling places led to minor disruptions in voting. Officials said the threats were not credible, and the F.B.I. reported that they appeared to originate from Russian email accounts.
  • Sarah McBride became the first openly transgender person elected to Congress.
  • Measures in Florida to legalize marijuana and protect abortion rights failed to receive the 60 percent support needed to pass.
  • In Florida, the Trump campaign blocked multiple reporters from its election watch event at his Mar-a-Lago club.
  • Manicure, SoulCycle, Botox: How some Americans resolved to avoid watching the results.
  • See Election Day in photos.
An observer watches ballot counters at the Baird Center in Milwaukee, Wis. Jim Vondruska for The New York Times

Analysis from The Times's newsroom

Times reporters across the United States delivered news and analysis as results rolled in. Here's the latest.

"The Republican turnout machine — largely powered by allied conservative groups — focused on getting reliably conservative voters back to the polls for Trump," Maya King reported. "It appears their strategy was successful in Georgia, where the G.O.P. notched wins at the presidential level and in a handful of competitive state House seats."

"The Trump team, which is gathered at Mar-a-Lago, is jubilant," Jonathan Swan reported. "While we are still waiting on results from the Blue Wall states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — Trump advisers see signs they could sweep all seven of the battleground states."

"The Harris campaign just shut off the sound on the TVs at her watch party and replaced it with music after a guest on CNN said tonight felt 'more like 2016 than 2020,'" Nicholas Nehamas reported late last night. "The crowd has significantly thinned here and the mood feels seriously downcast."

From Opinion: Catch up on analysis and debate from Times columnists and writers.

Questions from readers: Should Harris have gone on Joe Rogan's show? Will another Trump victory lead to a reckoning among Democrats? Ezra Klein and Ross Douthat tackled the night's big issues.

To Whom It May Concern: "Put bluntly, many if not most Americans dislike or distrust you." Read an open letter from Bret Stephens, a Times opinion columnist, to whichever candidate wins the White House.

The view from the markets

As the first results trickled in, stock markets in Asia edged higher, the dollar rose against major currencies and U.S. Treasury yields climbed as investors reacted to the early returns in the presidential election.

Bitcoin set a record high of more than $75,000, reflecting optimism among cryptocurrency investors about the prospect of another Trump presidency.

On Wall Street: Investors expect stocks to gain today as markets emerge from the uncertainty of the campaign — provided that there is a clear winner.

WHAT ELSE IS HAPPENING

Yoav Gallant stands behind a lectern and salutes.
Nir Elias/Reuters

SPORTS NEWS

MORNING READ

Ari Burroughs, who is wearing a black shirt and brown pants, walks away from a voting booth.
Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times

Kamala Harris made history as the first Black woman to lead a major party into a presidential election, but she did not make her identity a centerpiece of her campaign — and polling suggested that she was on track to receive less support from Black men than President Biden did four years ago.

At polling stations across the U.S., Black voters cited a range of issues informing their decisions, including the economy, reproductive rights, criminal justice and Donald Trump's character.

COUNTERPROGRAMMING

  • Back to basics: Scientists in Japan made the first wooden satellite by blending age-old building techniques with rocket science.
  • Solar lights, big city: Can you live off the grid in Manhattan? It takes dedication, solar panels and lots of vegetables.
  • Tiny homes at risk: Hong Kong's subdivided apartments are among the starkest examples of the city's vast income inequality. Now, they're at risk.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Graceann Toberman, who is sitting at a kitchen table, holds a stack of papers.
Todd Heisler/The New York Times

What democracy looks like

Graceann Toberman has counted the votes in Magnolia, a farming community of 734 people in rural Wisconsin, for decades.

Early voting followed a simple routine: Toberman checked the voter's photo ID, gave them a ballot and an envelope, and then scooted to the other end of the kitchen to give them a little privacy at her table. The ballot was then stashed in a safe ahead of the count.

Only one person has approached Toberman with concerns about the security of elections. She explained how ballots are collected and stored, and the near-impossibility of tricking the system. The person came away satisfied with her explanation. "I've been doing this quite a few years," Toberman said. "They know me."

We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Christopher Testani for The New York Times

Cook: "I'm an experienced Indian cook," a reader writes, "and this is the best butter chicken I have ever had."

Breathe: Banish election overwhelm with our 10-minute art mindfulness challenge.

Read: Charles King's new book, "Every Valley," considers the origins of Handel's "Messiah."

Master: Use this guide to time a perfectly boiled egg.

Play the Spelling Bee. And here are today's Mini Crossword and Wordle. You can find all our puzzles here.

Thanks for joining us for the election. See you tomorrow. — Natasha

P.S. From clacking typewriters to high-tech interactive maps: Take a look at images that show election night over the decades at The Times.

Reach Natasha and the team at briefing@nytimes.com.

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