Good morning. We're covering the presidential candidates' positions on taxes — plus, Israel, China's economy and European tourism.
Harris and Trump on taxesToday, we are starting a series called The Stakes covering the major issues of the campaign. Regardless of who wins the election, the next president will quickly have to deal with major changes to the tax code. That's because a set of tax cuts enacted by Donald Trump in 2017 will expire next year, and Congress will decide which tax cuts to keep, end or expand. Of all the campaign policy issues, this one is the most likely to hurt, or help, your finances. Trump has proposed tax changes that would largely benefit the wealthy and corporations. He has also called for new tariffs — taxes on foreign goods — that would raise prices for everyone. Kamala Harris, like President Biden before her, has promised to reduce taxes for lower and middle earners and increase taxes on the rich. She has not proposed new tariffs, although she has not ruled them out. Below, I'll explain how these plans could affect you. This newsletter is the first in a series we'll run between now and Election Day. In it, Times journalists will focus on the policy stakes of the 2024 election — and how life would be different under a Harris administration or a Trump administration. We'll examine other subjects, including abortion, democracy and immigration, in future newsletters. The tax cutsTrump campaigned in 2016 on a promise to slash tax rates. He delivered tax cuts in his first year in office. The 2017 cuts largely benefited the wealthy and corporations. But they also included some reductions for low- and middle-income Americans. Most of the 2017 cuts will expire next year, and members of Congress are preparing for a fight. Trump wants to extend everything — and go further. He has proposed eliminating taxes on tips and Social Security benefits and reducing the corporate tax rate to 15 percent, from 21 percent. He argues the cut would leave businesses with more money to grow, spend and hire, helping the economy. Trump's plan would add $5.8 trillion to the debt over 10 years, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model. That would expand a national debt and a budget deficit that many economists already consider concerningly large. Harris says she would leave the 2017 tax cuts in place for people earning up to $400,000 per year but raise rates for those who earn more. She argues that the rich can afford higher taxes to pay for policies that help everyone else, including an expanded child tax credit for parents. Like Trump, she favors eliminating taxes on tips. Harris's plan would add $1.2 trillion to the debt over 10 years, the Penn Wharton Budget Model found. She has promised to reduce the deficit but has not specified how she would make up for the budget shortfall in her current proposals.
The tariffsOver the past decade, Democrats and Republicans have shifted from the bipartisan free trade paradigm of the 1990s and 2000s. They have increased tariffs on foreign industries that produce cheaper goods than their U.S. counterparts. For example, Biden has imposed a 100 percent tariff on Chinese electric cars. Trump wants to go further. He has suggested a 10 to 20 percent tariff on all foreign goods, along with a 60 percent tariff on all imports from China. Harris comes from the Biden administration, which has used tariffs on a more limited basis than Trump has proposed. She has criticized Trump's tariffs as too broad — describing them as "a Trump tax on gas, a Trump tax on food, a Trump tax on clothing, a Trump tax on over-the-counter medication." Supporters of tariffs argue that they would not increase prices — that foreign businesses would eat the cost instead of passing it on to consumers. But historically that's not true. In fact, the purpose of a tariff is to increase prices. American products are generally more expensive than those made in China, Mexico and other low-income countries because labor costs are higher here. Tariffs try to level the playing field by increasing prices for foreign goods. In a recent interview with NBC News, JD Vance, Trump's running mate, argued that the tariffs would reinvigorate U.S. production. "Anything that you lose on the tariff from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages, so you're ultimately much better off," Vance claimed. New tariffs could also raise revenue, but not enough to make up for the deficits from either candidate's tax cuts. The plans' impactHow would the tax plans affect actual people? A middle-class household with $80,000 in income would gain $1,700 after taxes under Trump's plan and $2,200 under Harris's, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model. A household in the top 0.1 percent, with $14 million in income, would gain $377,000 under Trump and lose $167,000 under Harris. Those numbers, however, do not include the impact of tariffs. If they are included, Trump's plan would actually reduce a middle-class household's after-tax income by $1,700, the Peterson Institute for International Economics found. Wealthy households' after-tax income would still increase. Since Harris hasn't proposed new tariffs, her numbers are unchanged. How much of this will happen? Federal law allows the president to unilaterally impose tariffs, making at least some new ones likely. The tax cut extensions are less certain. They require congressional approval, so the winners of this year's 468 House and Senate elections will play a big role in dictating your future tax rates. Related: Republicans often enact tax cuts that are temporary, but once people get used to paying less, it becomes hard for Democrats to reverse them. Senator Elizabeth Warren has called this the "tax doom loop." More on the election
Israel-Hamas War
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Opinions To beat Harris, Trump needs to run on his record instead of focusing on barbs, Senator Lindsey Graham writes. Harris needs to break from Biden on policy to win, James Carville argues. College students need to grow up and schools need to let them, Rita Koganzon writes. "I paid my kid $100 to read a book": Mireille Silcoff explains why. Listen to Ezra Klein talk about psychedelics and meaning on his show. Subscribe Today The Morning highlights a small portion of the journalism that The New York Times offers. To access all of it, become a subscriber with this introductory offer.
Beauty and danger: New York's swimming holes, tucked into forests and often unmarked on maps, offer relief during hot summers — but also pose risks. Colombia: Watch whales and greet them with stories, dancing and music. "Pinnacle Man": He was found frozen near the Appalachian Trail in Pennsylvania in 1977. His identity remained a mystery — until now. Lives Lived: Virginia Ogilvy served Queen Elizabeth II for nearly 50 years as the only American-born member of her inner circle of advisers and close friends known as the ladies-in-waiting. She died at 91.
College football: Florida State lost to Boston College. The 0-2 start for Florida State is a disappointing turn for a team many predicted to win its conference. M.L.B.: The New York Yankees slugger Juan Soto will become a free agent this offseason and could command a contract worth $560 million, our expert projects. U.S. Open: The No. 1 seeds Iga Swiatek and Jannik Sinner advanced yesterday, and four Americans — two men and two women — are into the quarterfinals. Read an update. N.F.L.: The San Francisco 49ers rookie Ricky Pearsall will miss at least the first four games of the season after he was shot during an attempted robbery last weekend, the team announced.
This summer, in popular European destinations, visitors became the targets of a tourism backlash. Some residents protested with hunger strikes against developments and took the streets in thousands; others sprayed tourists with water. Local officials threatened to cut off water to illegal vacation rentals. Read about how the anger played out in destinations like Amsterdam, Barcelona and Santorini. More on culture
Pair pork tenderloin with a nutty tahini and citrus slaw. Care for your new tattoo. Pick the best time to get a flu shot. Pop a bottle of wine with a good corkscrew. Unwind in a comfy robe.
Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was conjoined. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —German Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com.
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