The Morning: The myth of migrant crime

Plus, growing momentum against Biden, a mayor's swim in the Seine and Emmy nominations.

View in browser|nytimes.com July 18, 2024 By German Lopez Good morning. We're covering Republicans' false claim about immigration and crime — as well as growing momentum against Biden, a mayor's swim in the Seine and Emmy nominations. Migrants waiting to be taken to a shelter in Chicago. Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times Immigrants and crime Throughout the first three days of the Republican National Convention, officials have highlighted a surge in what they call "migrant crime." President Biden "has welcomed into our country rapists, murderers, even terrorists, and the price that we have paid has been deadly," Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas claimed last night. The day before, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas said, "Every day, Americans are dying" in crimes committed by migrants. Donald Trump has made similar remarks on the campaign trail. But there is no migrant crime surge. In fact, U.S. rates of crime and immigration have moved in opposite directions in recent years. After illegal immigration plummeted in 2020, the murder rate rose. And after illegal immigration spiked in 2021 and 2022, murders plateaued and then fell. Over a longer period, there is no relationship between immigration and crime trends. The number of foreign-born Americans has increased for decades, while the murder rate has gone up and down at different times, as these charts by my colleague Ashley Wu show: Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey; Jeff Asher, F.B.I. | By The New York Times Yes, some migrants have committed violent crimes. There are more than 45 million immigrants in the U.S., and invariably some of them — just like people of any other group — will do bad things. Similarly, thousands of native-born Americans commit violent crimes in any given week. Trump and other Republicans have suggested that immigrants are especially likely to be criminals. They point to a few anecdotes. But the data shows the opposite: Immigrants are less likely to commit crimes. There are genuine issues with the border and illegal immigration, but more crime is not one of them. More migrants, less crime If more immigration led to more crime, you would expect that crime rates would spike along with immigration flows, locally and nationally. The statistics would show that migrants were disproportionately likely to commit criminal or violent acts. Instead, the opposite is true. New York, Chicago and Denver have had an influx of immigrants in the past couple years. Over that same period, murder rates in those cities have fallen. Similarly, border counties in Texas have lower violent crime rates than the state and country overall, the crime analyst Jeff Asher has found. The individual crimes committed by migrants that Trump and his allies highlight simply do not add up to a bigger trend. In reality, immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than people born in the U.S. Immigrants have had lower incarceration rates — a measure for crime — than native-born Americans for at least 150 years, a recent study concluded. Undocumented immigrants have lower felony arrest rates than legal immigrants or native-born Americans, another study found. Why? Consider migrants' motives. Many risk their lives by crossing dangerous jungles, rivers and deserts through Latin America to reach the U.S. so they can find better jobs that offer higher pay. In many cases, they are fleeing crime and violence back home. If they came here illegally, they have an incentive to avoid trouble with the law so they do not get caught by the authorities and deported. The bottom line People have legitimate reasons to be frustrated with illegal immigration and to worry about what happens at the border. Liberal mayors have learned as much in the past few years; the surge of illegal immigrants to their cities has drained public resources, particularly housing. A porous border also contributes to security concerns, such as the flow of fentanyl and the risk of terrorism. When an undocumented immigrant does commit a crime, it can lead to a sense of lawlessness and chaos. But more immigration has not caused more crime. The myth that crime is up can perpetuate stereotypes and racism. Immigrants who arrived in New York recently told The Times that local residents were often hostile. They make rude comments under their breath or move away in subway cars. One Venezuelan lamented that people now saw all migrants in the same way: "violent." Related: The brother of a woman killed on a scenic trail — a crime in which an undocumented immigrant has been arrested — spoke at the Republican convention. More from the Republican convention Senator J.D. Vance Todd Heisler/The New York Times Accepting the vice-presidential nomination, Senator J.D. Vance recounted growing up poor in a working-class Ohio town that he said had been "cast aside" by Biden and other politicians. "I will be a vice president who never forgets where he came from," he said. Vance also sounded economically populist notes, criticizing big corporations and praising "the working man, union and nonunion alike." Here are more takeaways from Night 3. The speech didn't mention abortion. Vance has supported a national ban and opposed exceptions for rape and incest. Usha Vance, his wife, spoke about meeting him in law school, poked fun at his beard and described him as a "meat and potatoes kind of guy" who nevertheless learned to cook Indian food for her mother. Donald Trump Jr., who spoke before Vance, aggressively criticized Biden. He has become a major figure in the party, building what he calls a "MAGA bench for the future." Antisemitism was another theme of the night. A Harvard graduate endorsed Trump's call to deport foreign students who harass Jewish students. The parents of a Hamas-held American-Israeli hostage chanted "bring them home." How well do you know Milwaukee, the city hosting the convention? Take our quiz. The late night hosts joked about Vance and Nikki Haley backing away from their opposition to Trump. THE LATEST NEWS President Biden President Biden Eric Lee/The New York Times Biden tested positive for Covid while campaigning in Nevada and has mild symptoms. "Doing well," he said after flying back to Delaware. Biden has become more open to hearing arguments about why he should leave the race, after Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic congressional leaders, privately expressed lawmakers' concerns. In an interview, Biden said he'd consider stepping aside if his doctors told him he had a medical condition. The Democratic National Committee delayed an expedited plan to nominate Biden. Representative Adam Schiff said Biden should drop out. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats say Biden should step aside, according to a new poll. Jeffrey Katzenberg, a co-chairman of Biden's campaign, told the president that donors had stopped giving. Some are calling lawmakers to persuade Biden to drop out. The Trump campaign declined to agree to a date for a vice-presidential debate, saying that doing so before the Democratic convention would be unfair to "whoever Kamala Harris picks as her running mate." The Trump Shooting The gunman who tried to assassinate Trump searched for the dates of Trump events and the Democratic National Convention, the F.B.I. told Congress. The F.B.I. has found no evidence that the shooter held strong partisan views. A former classmate said he disdained politicians in both parties. Local police at Trump's rally saw the gunman acting suspiciously and circulated a photo of him, though they did not know he had a weapon. The Secret Service let Trump go onstage despite the threat. A Times investigation, constructed from videos and photos taken at the rally, shows how law enforcement failed to stop the shooting. International Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris. James Hill for The New York Times The mayor of Paris swam in the Seine, to prove that the river was clean enough to host Olympic events. Milan's main airport is now named after Silvio Berlusconi, the scandal-prone former prime minister. Left-leaning lawmakers are protesting. Officials in Spain hoped an algorithm could predict how much danger victims of domestic violence were in. Some women they sent home on its recommendation were killed. Other Big Stories Damage from storms in Rome, N.Y. Cindy Schultz for The New York Times Four tornadoes swept through upstate New York, destroying buildings and killing at least one person. Vaccines significantly reduce the risk of long Covid, researchers reported. Here's what you need to know. Two Canadians died, and 10 others fell sick, from listeria in plant-based milk substitutes. The authorities recalled products from two brands, Silk and Great Value. The police arrested a Brooklyn councilwoman who they said had bitten a police chief during a protest. The Navy posthumously exonerated hundreds of Black sailors who were punished in the 1940s because they objected to unsafe conditions after a port explosion. A spade-toothed whale washed ashore dead in New Zealand. It's the world's rarest whale species: Scientists have never seen one alive. Opinions The New York Times As Americans consider electing Trump to a second term, Times Opinion created a timeline of his first four years — an era of lies, violence and chaos. The Olympics should reverse its decision to welcome Afghanistan, whose female athletes live in exile, Friba Rezayee writes. In the 1990s, tabloids tore apart Shannen Doherty. In hindsight, she wasn't volatile or difficult; she was just a young women enjoying fame, Jennifer Weiner writes. Here are columns by Carlos Lozada on Trump's call to "Fight!" and Nicholas Kristof on Biden loyalists. MORNING READS Michelle Groskopf for The New York Times Matter of taste: In an era of viral hybrid pastries, the plain croissant is still the best croissant. Swirls of color: Scientists scanned the brains of people on psychedelic drugs. The results were trippy. City with a female face: A community in Vienna was designed specifically to benefit women. Lives Lived: Renauld White walked the runways for Ralph Lauren, Calvin Klein and Donna Karan and was the first Black American model to appear on a GQ cover. He died at 80. SPORTS W.N.B.A.: Caitlin Clark set a league record with 19 assists against the Dallas Wings. Soccer: Philadelphia Union's Cavan Sullivan, 14, became the youngest player to appear in an M.L.S. game. Golf: The Open Championship teed off this morning at Royal Troon, Scotland. All eyes are on Rory McIlroy, whose recent collapse at the U.S. Open was crushing for fans — especially those in his hometown. ARTS AND IDEAS Hiroyuki Sanada in a scene from "Shogun." Katie Yu/FX, via Associated Press Two FX series topped this year's Emmy nominations. "Shogun," a period drama set in Japan, received 25 nods, while the tense restaurant workplace comedy "The Bear" had 23. Some other highlights: The 23 nominations for "The Bear" are the most ever for a comedy, beating a record that "30 Rock" set in 2009. HBO trailed Netflix and FX in total nominations. It hasn't been third since 1996, before "The Sopranos" or "Sex and the City" had premiered. See the full list of nominees, and the shows that our critic felt got snubbed. More on culture Sotheby's sold an unusually complete stegosaurus fossil for $44.6 million — 10 times the estimated price. A new album from Childish Gambino, Donald Glover's rap project, comes out tomorrow. It will be his last under that name. The armorer on the film "Rust," sentenced to 18 months over a fatal shooting on the set, is requesting a new trial after the collapse of the case against Alec Baldwin. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews. Combine a few pantry staples for a satisfying angel hair pasta. Celebrate "summerween," an excuse to get spooky in July. Pack for a three-day trip with one small bag. Grow a lush garden using these steel tubs. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was uninvited. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —German Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. 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