One thing to watch: Trump and independents
In many of the 16 states holding primary contests on Super Tuesday, any registered voter can take part in either primary. They are "open primaries" in which Republicans can choose to vote in the Democratic primary and vice versa.
In some others, like North Carolina and the Democratic contest in California, registered party members and independent voters – those not registered with a party – can take part.
But there are four states that still feature closed primaries, at least on the Republican side: Alaska, California, Oklahoma and Utah. A person can often register for the party at his or her polling place or caucus site.
No two states are alike, obviously, but comparing Trump's margins in these closed primary states with the ones with open primaries could be an interesting exercise, especially since independent voters hold so much power in general elections in US politics.
Here's a look at how independents and others who don't identify with either major party voted according to exit polls in the first three states of the 2024 Republican primary calendar, all of which were won by Trump. Voters were asked which party they identify with. You'll notice that he only won independent voters in Iowa, where a person had to register to take part in the caucuses.
- Iowa GOP caucuses: Only Republicans could take part. But voters could register with the party at their caucus site. Results: 16% of voters were independents. Trump won 42% of independent voters compared with Haley's 34%.
- New Hampshire GOP primary: Not completely open. Only registered party members and independents could take part in the Republican primary, something Trump loudly complained about and which Haley tried to exploit. Results: 44% of voters were independents. Haley won 58% of independent voters compared with Trump's 39%.
- South Carolina GOP primary: An open primary. Any registered voter could take part in either contest, although the Democratic and Republican contests occurred on different days. Results: 27% of voters were independents. Haley won 54% of independents compared with Trump's 45%.
One thing I will be looking for Tuesday night is how Trump does among independent voters in those states with open primaries compared with the ones with closed primaries.
Separately, CNN's Ronald Brownstein looks at Trump's transformation of the GOP to a more pugnacious and populous party. But he also notes that Trump faces a kernel of resistance even within the party.
Brownstein: Despite his sweep of the early nominating contests, his share of the vote hasn't quite reached the heights of some other primary candidates in both parties. Counting Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan, Trump has won a little over three-fifths of the total combined vote so far.
That slightly exceeds the share that Reagan won in 1980 and equals the percentage George W. Bush won in 2000, according to results compiled by Northeastern University political scientist William Mayer.
But Trump still lags behind the last two candidates who most closely matched his advantages as a quasi-incumbent: vice-presidents George H.W. Bush in 1988 (who hit 68%) and Democrat Al Gore in 2000 (who reached 75%), according to Mayer's tabulation.
Ahem. The elder Bush ultimately won in 1988 and Gore narrowly lost in 2000.
I will spend the evening contributing to CNN's live updates. Follow along.
