The Morning: The election is set

Plus, the Red Sea, Bitcoin and Kate, Princess of Wales.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story March 6, 2024 Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, takes over the newsletter this morning to tell you about Super Tuesday and look ahead to the general election campaign. — David Leonhardt By Nate Cohn Chief political analyst Good morning. We're also covering the Red Sea, Bitcoin and Kate, Princess of Wales. Donald Trump and President Biden. Taylor Baucom for The New York Times and Kent Nishimura for The New York Times A 2020 repeat It's Biden vs. Trump. It'll be a few weeks before they have enough delegates to clinch their nominations, but after yesterday's Super Tuesday results — in which those candidates won at least 14 states each — the primaries are effectively over. The general election is about to begin. On paper, Biden ought to be the favorite. He's an incumbent president with a strong economy and an opponent facing trial for multiple alleged crimes. Yet according to the polls, Trump begins the general election campaign in the lead. Over the last four months, he has led nearly every poll in Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, along with the states he carried in 2020 — enough to give him 283 electoral votes and the presidency. This is not what many expected from a Biden-Trump rematch, especially after Democrats were resilient in the midterms and excelled in special elections by campaigning on issues like democracy and abortion. Biden's unpopularity But Biden's job approval rating is stuck in the upper 30s, and voters simply don't look upon him favorably the way they once did. Nearly three-quarters of voters, including a majority of Democrats, say he is too old to be an effective president. In the end, Biden might well prevail by capitalizing on issues like abortion and democracy. Historically, early polls are not especially predictive of a final outcome. Many voters aren't yet paying close attention, and there will be every opportunity for the Biden campaign to refocus the electorate on more favorable issues once the general election campaign gets underway. The events of the next eight months may well, too; from the effects of a gradually improving economy to the circumstances on the border and in conflicts abroad. But even though the early polls aren't necessarily predictive, they're still worth taking seriously. Voters know these candidates very well. Biden is the president, Trump is a former president, and both candidates have been in public life for decades. And based on all that voters have seen, they are saying they do not like Biden and don't think he's a very effective president. This is not a small matter. Democrats have won a lot of elections lately, but not like this. Ever since Hillary Clinton lost in 2016, Democrats have followed a simple playbook: nominate acceptable, mainstream candidates and count on voters to reject right-wing Republicans. Biden himself was such a candidate back in 2020, and even then he defeated Trump by only a slim margin — less than a percentage point in the pivotal battleground states. His basic strategy has stayed the same, but his favorability rating is 14 points lower. The polls suggest that Biden's weakness is concentrated among the less engaged, less educated segment of the electorate, including many young, Black and Hispanic voters who traditionally vote for Democratic candidates. Democrats have fared well in recent midterm and special elections, but Biden's dissenters represent a small share of the electorate in these low-turnout races. Many more will vote this November. Could Biden recover? There might be a kernel of good news for Biden hidden in his extreme weakness among less engaged voters: His campaign can hope they are simply not paying close attention, and might return to Biden's side once voters tune into the race. My colleague Claire Cain Miller, for instance, interviewed a voter who said abortion was the most important issue, but blamed Biden for the loss of abortion rights in America. That's exactly the kind of voter a campaign can hope to sway. Biden can also hope that Trump will loom larger in the minds of voters as the election nears. Trump's strength in the polls is not because voters like him; he's viewed about as unfavorably as he was four years ago. In fact, his ratings numbers are almost exactly where they stood before the last election. Many voters may look back fondly on the state of the economy during his term, judging it positively against post-pandemic inflation and Biden. On the other hand, a majority of voters say they believe Trump has committed serious federal crimes. Trump's persistent unpopularity sets up an agonizing choice for millions of voters who liked and backed Biden in the last election but now find themselves left to choose between two candidates they dislike; a group sometimes known as "double haters." It also sets up a challenging election for pollsters, as these voters probably have more volatile preferences. Many of them may not come to a firm decision until they absolutely have to — at the ballot box. No one can say what these voters will do come November. Many might ultimately choose not to make a decision at all, whether by staying home or voting for a minor-party candidate. What we know is that today's double haters were essential to Biden's victory in 2020, but they are not fans of him today and enough of them now tell pollsters they support Trump to give him the lead. That's worth taking very seriously. More on the presidential primaries Nikki Haley  Ruth Fremson/The New York Times Nikki Haley is expected to exit the race this morning, The Wall Street Journal reports. Yesterday, she beat Trump in a single state, Vermont, 50 percent to 46 percent. Trump criticized Biden and didn't mention Haley in his election-night speech. Biden tied the Democratic caucus in American Samoa with a virtually unknown candidate, Jason Palmer. He's a Maryland technology entrepreneur who campaigned on a promise to improve the Samoan education system. In Minnesota, 19 percent of Democrats cast ballots for "uncommitted" to protest Biden's Israel policy, a larger share than in Michigan last week. Super Tuesday also demonstrated one of Trump's potential weaknesses in the general election, Politico reports: He struggled with well-educated suburban voters. About 9 in 10 voters in the Republican primaries in Virginia and North Carolina were white. These charts in The Washington Post show how people voted by age, gender and race. Stephen Colbert discussed Super Tuesday on "The Late Show." More Super Tuesday races In the North Carolina governor's race, Republicans nominated Mark Robinson, the Trump-aligned lieutenant governor, who has called homosexuality "filth." He'll face Josh Stein, the state's Democratic attorney general. In California, the race for the late Dianne Feinstein's Senate seat is set: Adam Schiff, a Democratic congressman who led Trump's first impeachment, will face Steve Garvey, a Republican former baseball star. Texas Democrats nominated Colin Allred, a House moderate and former N.F.L. linebacker, to challenge Senator Ted Cruz. Read more takeaways from the elections. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS More on Politics Senator Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona Democrat-turned-independent, won't seek re-election. She said that bipartisan compromises were "not what America wants right now." Trump, seeking donors, met with Elon Musk, who has echoed Republican criticisms of Biden. A new federal indictment charged Senator Bob Menendez, the New Jersey Democrat, and his wife with obstruction of justice. He denied the accusation. The Education Department fined Liberty University, the evangelical Christian college, $14 million for problems including mishandling sexual assault cases. Victoria Nuland, the State Department's third-ranking official and a Russia hawk, is retiring. Louisiana's governor hopes to crack down on crime, including by limiting parole. Critics say his new laws resemble failed policies of the past. Middle East A deal to free hostages in return for a six-week pause in the fighting in Gaza is "in the hands of Hamas," Biden said, adding, "We need a cease-fire." Trump said that the Israeli military should "finish the problem" in Gaza and did not take a clear position on a cease-fire, NBC reports. Three vital internet cables under the Red Sea aren't working, and it's not clear who or what damaged them. Some suspect the Houthis, who have denied responsibility. The U.S. airdropped more ready-to-eat meals into Gaza and said it planned further drops. War in Ukraine At a training ground in eastern Ukraine.  Lynsey Addario for The New York Times Outnumbered and low on ammunition: Ukrainian soldiers describe the brutal retreat from Avdiivka in the east. The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for a Russian general and admiral, accusing them of war crimes in Ukraine. Ukraine's first lady declined a State of the Union invitation, The Washington Post reports. More International News In Cairo. Fatma Fahmy for The New York Times Egyptians are buying and selling gold as their currency plunges and inflation eats away at their savings. British newspapers are trying to balance privacy concerns with a desire for royal stories as people speculate over the well-being of Kate, Princess of Wales. Venezuelan officials set the date of the presidential election for July. But the top opposition figure is banned from the ballot. Business and Technology The price of Bitcoin reached a new high of more than $69,000. New investment products have fueled a comeback after the cryptocurrency's value plummeted in 2022. Thousands of people couldn't use Facebook and Instagram during a global outage of about two hours. A cyberattack has left hundreds, if not thousands, of U.S. hospitals and doctors' offices unable to receive payments for treatments. Other Big Stories Queens, New York. Victor J. Blue for The New York Times Thousands of Chinese migrants are arriving in New York City via Mexico. Scholars rejected a proposal to declare the start of the "Anthropocene" — a new chapter in Earth's history defined by humanity's impact on the planet. A Philadelphia man wrongly convicted of murder was freed after more than 30 years in prison. See photos of his release. The Iditarod sled dog race in Alaska got off to a messy start: a five-time champion killed a moose to protect himself and his dogs. Opinions Lorgia García Peña resented her father for rarely saying "I love you." Now she understands the love behind his silence. Self-described progressives who deny the powerful evidence that Hamas committed widespread rape on Oct. 7 pave the way for future atrocities, Bret Stephens writes. Here are columns by Thomas Friedman on America's shadow war with Iran and Ross Douthat on Super Tuesday. Discover more of the insight you value in The Morning. The Times is filled with information and inspiration every day. So gain unlimited access to everything we offer — and save with this introductory offer. MORNING READS In Fritch, Texas. Desiree Rios for The New York Times Rescues: Elite teams of veterinarians are traversing Texas to save animals big and small from wildfires. Holocaust Museum: A new institution in Amsterdam is the first to tell the full story of the persecution of Dutch Jews during World War II. Ask Well: Hydrogen water is said to reduce inflammation and boost mood. Does it live up to the hype? Lives Lived: Antoine Predock was an Albuquerque-based architect who became internationally acclaimed for buildings that resonated with the landscape of the American Southwest. He died at 87. SPORTS Viewership: Caitlin Clark's record-breaking game received the biggest regular-season TV audience in women's college basketball for 25 years. Men's college basketball: Dartmouth players voted to form a union, a landmark in the movement to recognize college athletes as employees. N.B.A.: The bench player Dean Wade spurred the Cleveland Cavaliers to an unexpected come-from-behind win over the Boston Celtics. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS Leonard Bernstein in 1962. Sam Falk/The New York Times American maestros: In 1958, Leonard Bernstein was named music director of the New York Philharmonic. His appointment blazed a trail for American conductors and showed that they could compete with their European counterparts. Seven decades later, few American conductors are at the helm of the nation's largest and most prestigious orchestras. Pursuing a career in Europe is, for some, more fruitful than staying at home. More on culture In an Instagram post yesterday, Taylor Swift urged her 282 million followers to vote in the primaries, though she didn't endorse a candidate. A beauty brand flew 30 social media influencers on a private jet to paradise. Many observers were not amused. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Chris Lanier. Prop Stylist: Carla Gonzalez-Hart. Roast chicken with potatoes, then top it all with arugula and a garlic yogurt. Spot the signs of hearing loss. Donate your old clothes. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was armadillo. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018