The Morning: American slowdown

Plus, the Supreme Court, Hong Kong and supersonic travel.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story March 20, 2024 By German Lopez Good morning. We're covering a growing challenge for the U.S. economy — as well as the Supreme Court, Hong Kong and supersonic travel. In New York. Todd Heisler/The New York Times Peak population Since its inception, the U.S. has relied on population growth to keep its economy pumping. New generations of native-born Americans and immigrants enter the work force; they produce goods and services and then spend their income, in a cycle that drives supply, demand and growth. They also pay taxes that fund programs like Social Security and Medicare. Over every 50-year period in U.S. history, the population has grown at least 50 percent, sometimes by far more. But that's about to change. Americans now have fewer children than past generations did. And depending on levels of immigration, the country's population may plateau in the coming decades. Take a look at this chart, based on census data collected by the demographer William Frey. It shows what would happen to the U.S. population in four different scenarios. In each one, the population eventually peaks. But how soon it happens depends on how much immigration the country has: Source: William H. Frey, Brookings | By The New York Times The line labeled "historical" roughly tracks the immigration trends of the previous decade. The "high" line is nearly double the historical level, and "low" is roughly half. Depending on which path the country follows, the U.S. could have decades more or decades fewer of population growth. The zero-immigration projection is unrealistic. The U.S. always has some level of immigration, including illegal entries, and no major politician is talking about banning all legal immigration. Still, that projection is helpful because it shows how important immigration is to population growth. With no more immigrants, U.S. population growth would flatline this year. Many Americans favor lower levels of immigration. They worry that new immigrants take jobs and reduce pay. They also fear that the new arrivals can change a nation's culture. Immigration, especially the illegal kind, has fueled political instability around the world. Racism and xenophobia also play a role. But immigration has benefits. It has helped keep America's economy ahead of its peers' in the aftermath of the pandemic, as my colleague Lydia DePillis wrote. Without more immigrants, the economy and social programs could suffer in the coming decades. The U.S. could follow the path of other economies that have stagnated along with their population levels, such as Japan and potentially China. A global situation In Frisco, Texas. Meridith Kohut for The New York Times Of course, there is another way that the U.S. could increase its population: Americans could have more children. But that seems unlikely. Historically, people have fewer kids as they become wealthier and gain more access to birth control. Fertility rates have declined for decades, and most rich nations now fall below the so-called replacement rate of 2.1 babies for every woman. Some countries have tried to persuade people to have more children. Those attempts, in Hungary, Sweden, Singapore and elsewhere, have generally failed. They appear to get people to have children earlier, but not to have more kids. Demographers expect the world's population to peak in the coming decades — likely around 10 billion in the 2080s, according to experts at the U.N. (For Times Opinion, the economist Dean Spears walked through several population projections.) This may not ultimately be a bad thing. Most people prefer having control over whether and when they have children. Tight labor markets could lead to wage increases. And perhaps new technologies, like artificial intelligence, could power economic growth even if the population declines, including in the U.S. But a world with a shrinking population is very different from what humans have ever seen. Since the Industrial Revolution, countries have leveraged high population growth to bolster their economies and government programs. Soon, they will no longer be able to do so. For more Do millennials not want children, or are they merely delaying having them? Read more about the issue. About two-thirds of people now live in a country or area where fertility rates are below replacement level. For more on plummeting birthrates, listen to this podcast. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS 2024 Elections Bernie Moreno, a Donald Trump-endorsed former car dealer, won the Ohio Republican Senate primary to challenge Sherrod Brown, a vulnerable Democrat. Read takeaways from yesterday's primaries. Before last night, more than one in 10 Democratic voters — many of them young, Muslim or Latino — had voted against President Biden in this year's primaries. Biden said that Trump "despises Latinos" in a Univision interview. He cited Trump's talk of migrants "poisoning the blood" of the country. Supreme Court Looking across the Rio Grande into Mexico.  Cheney Orr for The New York Times The justices declined to block a Texas law that makes it a crime for unauthorized migrants to enter the state. Hours later, a lower court effectively blocked the law and scheduled arguments for today. Federal appeals courts could review rulings by immigration judges about whether deporting someone would result in "exceptional and extremely unusual hardship," the Supreme Court ruled. The court said a Muslim American man could move forward with a lawsuit against the government for putting him on a no-fly list after he refused to become an informant. More on Politics Laura Loomer interviewing Ayub Ibrahim, a 20-year-old Somali migrant, in Panama. Federico Rios for The New York Times Right-wing influencers are filming migrants near the Darién Gap, in Central America, and asking them pointed questions to influence opinions on immigration. Peter Navarro reported to prison to begin a four-month sentence. He is the first senior Trump aide to serve time over efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Alabama's legislature passed a bill that would ban funding for diversity programs at public universities and limit the teaching of some topics on race and gender. Hong Kong In Hong Kong.  Louise Delmotte/Associated Press Hong Kong passed national security laws that grant the authorities new powers to crack down on opposition. Residents are struggling with an identity crisis as officials embrace China. The city created a visa to lure global professionals. Most of the applicants were Chinese people seeking better jobs and greater freedom. More International News Benjamin Netanyahu said the Israeli military would send troops into Rafah, in southern Gaza, a day after Biden urged him not to invade the city. Brazil's police recommended that Jair Bolsonaro, the country's former president, be criminally charged in a scheme to falsify his Covid vaccination records. U.S. authorities returned 18th- and 19th-century Japanese artifacts, found in the attic of an American World War II veteran, to Okinawa. A.I. Apple and Google are discussing a deal to bring Google's A.I. technology to iPhones. Saudi Arabia plans to create a fund of about $40 billion to invest in A.I. Other Big Stories The Biden administration will award Intel grants worth billions for U.S. semiconductor production. Bring back Concorde: Private companies want to revive commercial supersonic travel, The Washington Post reports. Two Mississippi officers were sentenced for the torture and sexual assault of two Black men during a home raid. Opinions World leaders failed to respond seriously to the war in Ethiopia. It's time they intervene and protect women from sexual violence there, Maebel Gebremedhin writes. Many minority voters are shifting to the right. Experts are debating whether this realignment will last, Thomas Edsall writes. An Arab Mandate for Palestine, which would help modernize Gaza, is the only path forward for the enclave, Bret Stephens argues. Here's a column by Lydia Polgreen on Islamophobia toward a judicial nominee. For readers of The Morning, enjoy exceptional savings for a limited time. Take advantage of the complete Times experience with our sale. Save on your first year of unlimited access to news, Games, Cooking and more. Subscribe now. MORNING READS At Fashion Week.  Simbarashe Cha/The New York Times Hair inspiration: Wet waves and curly mullets — these were among the best hairstyles during fashion weeks in New York, London, Milan and Paris. Classes and carcasses: A Missouri high school program teaches students to butcher animals, like deer, then cook the meat. Lives Lived: David Breashears was a mountain climber and cinematographer. He reached the summit of Mount Everest five times, including for a 1998 film that became the highest-grossing IMAX documentary ever. Breashears died at 68. SPORTS In South Korea.  Jun Michael Park for The New York Times M.L.B.: The baseball season begins today in South Korea, where the Los Angeles Dodgers and their new superstar, Shohei Ohtani, face the San Diego Padres. Superfans: In South Korea, a baseball game is a sustained sensory overload, with drummers, dancers and a different fight song for each player. March Madness: The women's tournament is taking center stage this year, Nicole Auerbach writes, with the brightest stars and the most intriguing story lines. Men's college basketball: Colorado State advanced in the N.C.A.A. tournament after a blowout win over Virginia to headline the event's opening First Four matchups. Join us: If you haven't joined our bracket pools for Morning readers, you can do so here for the men's and women's tournaments. (And let us know you did with this Google form.) Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS A scene from "The Girls on the Bus." HBO In her image: Hillary Clinton has influenced television's depiction of female presidential candidates. Examples include Geena Davis in the short-lived series "Commander in Chief" and Robin Wright in "House of Cards." Many of these imaginings, Amanda Hess writes, used elements of Clinton's public image, depicting them as either ultracompetent or morally flexible. (Notably few were actually elected to the presidency in their fictional world.) That may be starting to change. "The Girls on the Bus," a new Max offering, tries to represent female politicians without reference to Clinton. Read more about the show. More on culture Speculation online about Kate, Princess of Wales, reveals an urge to question reality, misinformation experts say. "Maybe she got a bad perm and is waiting for her hair to grow out," Jimmy Kimmel said of Kate. Hundreds of Jewish film professionals signed an open letter to denounce an Oscar speech that was critical of Israel by the "The Zone of Interest" director Jonathan Glazer. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Armando Rafael for The New York Times Combine za'atar and creamy labneh for a tangy pasta dish. Learn to bake in five easy recipes. Inject some elegance into your kitchen with a Peugeot pepper mill. Bring these gadgets on a trip. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was lavatory. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. 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