Good morning. We're covering a growing challenge for the U.S. economy — as well as the Supreme Court, Hong Kong and supersonic travel.
Peak populationSince its inception, the U.S. has relied on population growth to keep its economy pumping. New generations of native-born Americans and immigrants enter the work force; they produce goods and services and then spend their income, in a cycle that drives supply, demand and growth. They also pay taxes that fund programs like Social Security and Medicare. Over every 50-year period in U.S. history, the population has grown at least 50 percent, sometimes by far more. But that's about to change. Americans now have fewer children than past generations did. And depending on levels of immigration, the country's population may plateau in the coming decades. Take a look at this chart, based on census data collected by the demographer William Frey. It shows what would happen to the U.S. population in four different scenarios. In each one, the population eventually peaks. But how soon it happens depends on how much immigration the country has:
The line labeled "historical" roughly tracks the immigration trends of the previous decade. The "high" line is nearly double the historical level, and "low" is roughly half. Depending on which path the country follows, the U.S. could have decades more or decades fewer of population growth. The zero-immigration projection is unrealistic. The U.S. always has some level of immigration, including illegal entries, and no major politician is talking about banning all legal immigration. Still, that projection is helpful because it shows how important immigration is to population growth. With no more immigrants, U.S. population growth would flatline this year. Many Americans favor lower levels of immigration. They worry that new immigrants take jobs and reduce pay. They also fear that the new arrivals can change a nation's culture. Immigration, especially the illegal kind, has fueled political instability around the world. Racism and xenophobia also play a role. But immigration has benefits. It has helped keep America's economy ahead of its peers' in the aftermath of the pandemic, as my colleague Lydia DePillis wrote. Without more immigrants, the economy and social programs could suffer in the coming decades. The U.S. could follow the path of other economies that have stagnated along with their population levels, such as Japan and potentially China. A global situation
Of course, there is another way that the U.S. could increase its population: Americans could have more children. But that seems unlikely. Historically, people have fewer kids as they become wealthier and gain more access to birth control. Fertility rates have declined for decades, and most rich nations now fall below the so-called replacement rate of 2.1 babies for every woman. Some countries have tried to persuade people to have more children. Those attempts, in Hungary, Sweden, Singapore and elsewhere, have generally failed. They appear to get people to have children earlier, but not to have more kids. Demographers expect the world's population to peak in the coming decades — likely around 10 billion in the 2080s, according to experts at the U.N. (For Times Opinion, the economist Dean Spears walked through several population projections.) This may not ultimately be a bad thing. Most people prefer having control over whether and when they have children. Tight labor markets could lead to wage increases. And perhaps new technologies, like artificial intelligence, could power economic growth even if the population declines, including in the U.S. But a world with a shrinking population is very different from what humans have ever seen. Since the Industrial Revolution, countries have leveraged high population growth to bolster their economies and government programs. Soon, they will no longer be able to do so. For more
2024 Elections
Supreme Court
More on Politics
Hong Kong
More International News
A.I.
Other Big Stories
Opinions World leaders failed to respond seriously to the war in Ethiopia. It's time they intervene and protect women from sexual violence there, Maebel Gebremedhin writes. Many minority voters are shifting to the right. Experts are debating whether this realignment will last, Thomas Edsall writes. An Arab Mandate for Palestine, which would help modernize Gaza, is the only path forward for the enclave, Bret Stephens argues. Here's a column by Lydia Polgreen on Islamophobia toward a judicial nominee. For readers of The Morning, enjoy exceptional savings for a limited time. Take advantage of the complete Times experience with our sale. Save on your first year of unlimited access to news, Games, Cooking and more. Subscribe now.
Hair inspiration: Wet waves and curly mullets — these were among the best hairstyles during fashion weeks in New York, London, Milan and Paris. Classes and carcasses: A Missouri high school program teaches students to butcher animals, like deer, then cook the meat. Lives Lived: David Breashears was a mountain climber and cinematographer. He reached the summit of Mount Everest five times, including for a 1998 film that became the highest-grossing IMAX documentary ever. Breashears died at 68.
M.L.B.: The baseball season begins today in South Korea, where the Los Angeles Dodgers and their new superstar, Shohei Ohtani, face the San Diego Padres. Superfans: In South Korea, a baseball game is a sustained sensory overload, with drummers, dancers and a different fight song for each player. March Madness: The women's tournament is taking center stage this year, Nicole Auerbach writes, with the brightest stars and the most intriguing story lines. Men's college basketball: Colorado State advanced in the N.C.A.A. tournament after a blowout win over Virginia to headline the event's opening First Four matchups. Join us: If you haven't joined our bracket pools for Morning readers, you can do so here for the men's and women's tournaments. (And let us know you did with this Google form.)
In her image: Hillary Clinton has influenced television's depiction of female presidential candidates. Examples include Geena Davis in the short-lived series "Commander in Chief" and Robin Wright in "House of Cards." Many of these imaginings, Amanda Hess writes, used elements of Clinton's public image, depicting them as either ultracompetent or morally flexible. (Notably few were actually elected to the presidency in their fictional world.) That may be starting to change. "The Girls on the Bus," a new Max offering, tries to represent female politicians without reference to Clinton. Read more about the show. More on culture
Combine za'atar and creamy labneh for a tangy pasta dish. Learn to bake in five easy recipes. Inject some elegance into your kitchen with a Peugeot pepper mill. Bring these gadgets on a trip.
Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was lavatory. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
San Isidro: oreja a la entrega de Román en tarde de ‘fuenteymbros’ con
trapío pero descastados
-
El que da todo lo que tiene no está obligado a más. No hay que tomarse en
negativo esta sabia afirmación del refranero. Más bien, al contrario.
Porque Romá...
Hace 3 horas
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario