The Morning: 2024 isn’t 2022

Plus, Ukraine aid, the 2024 election and a pyramid in Egypt.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story February 2, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering a new Times analysis of the presidential race — as well as Ukraine aid, the 2024 election and a pyramid in Egypt. President Biden Kenny Holston/The New York Times A turnout advantage For the many Americans who are nervous about the polls showing that President Biden may lose to Donald Trump in November, there is one big source of comfort. Since Trump took office in 2017, Republicans have lost many more elections than they've won, sometimes even when the polls looked bad for Democrats. The list of recent Democratic victories is striking: In the 2018 midterms, the party retook the House. In 2020, Biden beat Trump, and Democrats retook the Senate. In the 2022 midterms, Democrats fared better than many pundits expected. Last year, Democrats did well in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. They have also won many special elections to fill political offices that unexpectedly came open. Voters may express dissatisfaction with Biden in surveys. When the stakes have been real, however, a crucial slice of these voters prefers Democrats to Trump-aligned Republicans. The pattern is a legitimate reason for Democrats — and others who fear the consequences of a second Trump presidency — to be hopeful about the 2024 election. The U.S. may indeed have an "anti-MAGA majority." But there is also one clear reason to question this narrative. In the latest edition of his newsletter, my colleague Nate Cohn — The Times's chief political analyst — explains why Democrats shouldn't take too much comfort from recent results. 2024 isn't 2022 Nate's key insight is that the electorate in a presidential race is different from the electorate in midterms or special elections. In off-year elections, fewer people vote. Those who do are more likely to be older, highly educated and close followers of politics, as this table shows: Source: Upshot analysis of voter files | By The New York Times As a result, midterms and special elections often revolve around turnout, rather than persuasion. And Democrats now have a turnout advantage. In part, this advantage stems from the class inversion in American politics — namely, the shift of college graduates toward the Democratic Party and working-class voters toward the Republican Party. But the Democrats' new turnout edge is not only about the class inversion. More broadly, Democrats of all demographic groups have been more politically engaged than Republicans since Trump won the presidency in 2016, at least when Trump himself is not on the ballot. "This energy among highly engaged Democrats has powered the party's victory in special elections, and in 2022 it helped the party hold its own in the midterms," Nate writes. A presidential electorate, though, is much larger. It includes many more voters who don't follow politics closely. These less engaged voters are more likely to be independents and more open to persuasion. A presidential electorate also includes more young voters, more voters of color and more voters who didn't graduate from college. These are precisely the voters with whom Biden is struggling to match his support from 2020. A thin margin Here's one way to think about the situation: Biden won the 2020 election by a very small margin. Nationally, he beat Trump by seven million votes, but the Electoral College margin was much narrower. If the right mix of about 50,000 people across a few swing states had switched their votes, Trump could have won. By almost any measure, Biden's standing seems to be weaker today than it was in November 2020. Only 41 percent of Americans viewed him favorably in a recent Gallup poll, down from 46 percent shortly before the election four years ago. This deterioration is arguably more meaningful than the string of Democratic victories since 2020. In November, Biden won't be facing the electorate that shows up for midterms and special elections. He will be facing a presidential electorate that is less favorable to his party — and less favorable to him than it was four years ago. The big question is whether Biden can come close enough to matching his 2020 support in 2024 to win re-election. Nate is careful to explain that the answer may well be yes. One reason is that Trump also has weaknesses he didn't in 2020, including his role in the Jan. 6 attack on Congress and his criminal indictments. The safest conclusion, I think, is the 2024 race will be so close that the events of the next eight months are likely to determine the outcome. But Democrats shouldn't assume recent history will repeat itself. I encourage you to read Nate's piece. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS Middle East Biden imposed sanctions on Israeli settlers accused of attacking Palestinians in the West Bank, cutting them off from the U.S. financial system. Biden also lamented "the trauma, the death and destruction in Israel and Gaza," saying he was "actively working for peace, security, dignity" for Israelis and Palestinians. Social media posts with opposing views of the Israel-Hamas war cost two New York doctors their jobs. Then their fates diverged. For many Palestinians in the West Bank, life is now subject to even more restrictions, like at checkpoints. Iran trained and funded the militia groups targeting ships and U.S. troops in the Middle East, Biden's defense secretary said. Iran is sending more conciliatory signals, sensing a line has been crossed. Its supreme leader wants to avoid war. Aid to Ukraine Ukrainian military training. David Guttenfelder for The New York Times The E.U. will create a $54 billion fund to support Ukraine's economy after leaders from Italy, France and other countries pushed Hungary into dropping its opposition. Ukraine is one of many issues that Viktor Orban, Hungary's leader, has used to antagonize what he describes as Europe's liberal elite. 2024 Election Biden is publicly urging grocery chains to lower food prices, accusing them of ripping off shoppers. Allen Weisselberg, who ran the finances of Trump's family business for years, may plead guilty to perjury. It could strengthen prosecutors' hand in Trump's New York criminal trial. More on Politics Senator Chuck Schumer Valerie Plesch for The New York Times Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader, promised a vote next week on a bill to secure the border and aid Ukraine. Bipartisan negotiators are yet to release text for it. Twice in two decades, senators of both parties have tried together to change immigration law, and failed. Will that happen again? The Biden administration made opening offers to drug companies whose products face Medicare price negotiations. Impeachment was once seen as a serious check on corruption. It's at risk of becoming another partisan weapon, The Times's Peter Baker writes. China In Sriperumbudur, India.  Atul Loke for The New York Times India is quietly trying to steal more of China's iPhone business. China and the U.S. are meeting to discuss restricting the flow of fentanyl into America. Other Big Stories A dire shortage of guards in Wisconsin's prisons has left inmates with monthslong lockdowns and miserable conditions. Officials knew for years that the crisis was building. Witnesses say a man executed with nitrogen gas in Alabama last week stayed conscious for minutes, jerking and gasping. State officials had sworn that wouldn't happen. After five days of freedom in the Scottish Highlands, an escaped monkey has been recaptured. Elon Musk is unfathomably rich. The Washington Post explains where he holds his money. An atmospheric river has drenched California. Opinions The new "Mean Girls."  Paramount The latest adaptation of "Mean Girls" pretends the world has gotten nicer, Jessica Bennett writes, while failing to acknowledge the ways it has gotten nastier. Pollution is contributing to a Black American exodus in the North, and Southern states are unprepared for the influx, Adam Mahoney argues. Here are columns by Ezra Klein on Democrats and the working class and Paul Krugman on a "Goldilocks" economy. Discover more of the insight you value in The Morning. The Times is filled with information and inspiration every day. So gain unlimited access to everything we offer — and save with this introductory offer. MORNING READS Photo illustration by The New York Times; Photographs by Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times Dog years: All dogs go to heaven, but which live longest? See a table of breeds. Garbage trucks: Trash in New York has been collected in much the same way for a century. That changed this week. Try again: February might be the best month for resolutions. Minus 35: See the northern lights in Canada. Cholesterol: Managing your levels is critical for preventing serious health problems. Here's how. Flip Phone February: Read a practical guide to quitting your smartphone. Lives Lived: Toni Stern, a sunny California poet, became a trusted lyricist for Carole King, on "It's Too Late" and other songs during King's chart-topping career. Stern died at 79. SPORTS N.F.L.: The Washington Commanders hired Dan Quinn, the Dallas Cowboys' defensive coordinator, as head coach. Mark Andrews: The Ravens' tight end was feted as a hero for helping a woman with a medical emergency during a flight. M.L.B.: Days after the team was sold, the Baltimore Orioles traded for the 2021 Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. Lindsey Horan: The U.S. women's soccer captain said most American soccer fans "aren't smart" and "don't know the game" in a wide-ranging interview with The Athletic. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS The Pyramid of Menkaure. Khaled Elfiqi/EPA, via Shutterstock Ancient wonders: The Egyptian authorities recently announced a plan to cover the Pyramid of Menkaure, the smallest of Giza's three main pyramids, with granite blocks of the kind that once clad part of its exterior. It has revived what experts say is a constant debate in conservation: whether to try to return ancient structures to their earlier splendor, or minimize intervention. More on culture Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift.  Julio Cortez/Associated Press Is it real love? On social media, body language experts are discussing Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. Our tech columnist explains why he swapped Google for an A.I.-powered search engine. "I'm 33 and Botox messed up my face": The Cut addresses concerns. Stephen Colbert joked about Biden's approval ratings. "Ladies love Cool Joe," he said. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … David Malosh for The New York Times Serve turmeric-black pepper chicken with asparagus over a bed of rice. Learn how alcohol affects your gut microbiome. Wash your clothes with the best detergent. Eat the best bowl of beans our cooking writer has ever had. Give the most sophisticated chocolates this Valentine's Day. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was humbled. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Continue reading the main story Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Lauren Jackson, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018