PERIÓDICOS ALIAZON: The Year Ahead: War, Elections and More

The Year Ahead: War, Elections and More

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January 2, 2024

The Year Ahead: War, Elections

and More

2023 brought continued war in Ukraine, massive earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, a new war in Gaza, continued inflation but also signs of a turnaround, a wave of legal action against former US President Donald Trump, and unadulterated hype over artificial intelligence after the late-2022 release of ChatGPT.

What will 2024 bring?

Foreign Policy attempts to answer that in a series of look-ahead essays and commentary roundups. First, the wars and potential crises to watch: Comfort Ero and Richard Atwood identify 10 conflicts on which to keep an eye, pointing to existing wars in Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar, and Ethiopia and warning that new ones could emerge if the Israel–Hamas conflict spills into the wider Middle East, if Azerbaijan tests Armenia's borders, if tensions rise between the US and China over Taiwan or the South China Sea, as Kenyan-led UN peacekeepers arrive in violent and chaotic Haiti, and as insurgencies simmer in the coup-plagued Sahel. Warning of more dangers to global peace and stability, eight other FP authors outline eight of them: Venezuela's threat to invade Guyana, potential sabotage of undersea cables (particularly off Ireland's coast), possible spillover of Myanmar's civil war into China and India, apparent Russian ambitions in the Black Sea, the Afghan Taliban's threat to a weak Pakistani state, Russia–NATO tensions in the Arctic, teetering politics in the almost-Russian-puppet state of Belarus, and the risk of a coup in Cameroon amid anglophone–francophone tensions and jihadist-fueled insecurity.

Next, elections. 2024 will be filled with them. As Allison Meakem notes, "Seven of the world's 10 most populous countries are expected to vote on national leadership this year": India, the US, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Russia, and Mexico. "A long list of middle powers and small states are slated to hold elections this year, too. Among them are El Salvador, Iran, Senegal, South Africa, Taiwan, Tunisia, the United Kingdom, and Venezuela. In total, more than 40 percent of the planet's population is expected to cast ballots in more than 50 national contests." Liberal democracy will face a test in India, Meakem writes, as Hindu-nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi's time in power has seen standards erode. Senegal will try to escape the neighborhood trend of coups; authoritarian-leaning, Bitcoin-loving Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele will find out if security is more popular than democratic standards; and the African National Congress "will face its biggest test yet in national legislative elections" given public frustrations in South Africa.

In the US, many commentators have noted, a likely Trump–Biden presidential-election matchup could determine Washington's posture toward allies and broader foreign-policy trajectory. In a year-end/year-ahead edition of the Council on Foreign Relations' "The World Next Week" podcast, Carla Anne Robbins argues it's not just US-government policy but the country's commitment to democracy, fair play, and abiding by election results that is on the line. In a wide-ranging discussion about stories to watch in 2024, CFR's Robert McMahon and Politico's Nahal Toosi examine more of them, including Western support for Ukraine and the growing threat of climate change, especially to small island nations.

Next Steps in Gaza

As Israel continues its military campaign against Hamas in Gaza, waged in the wake of the terrorist group's horrific Oct. 7 massacres, so does international pressure on Israel to stop, given the heavy toll on Gazan civilians. Neighboring "Jordan is witnessing the largest wave of solidarity with Palestinians in the history of the kingdom," Mohammad Ayesh writes for Middle East Eye. "Nothing like this has been seen in two generations." Accused by South Africa of genocide, Israel will defend its war against Hamas at the International Court of Justice, Tovah Lazaroff reports for The Jerusalem Post.

In a handful of Haaretz op-eds, Israeli voices also call for a halt. Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert argued last week for a massive prisoner/hostage swap and an end to the fighting, suggesting Israel's stated war goal—the complete elimination of Hamas—is unrealistic. Columnist Gideon Levy questions the war's morality and what Israel can gain from fighting it. Uri Misgav argues: "A society that sanctifies indiscriminate death and killing loses its moral superiority … This is the second massive blow that Hamas is on the way to landing on us, and it is even more terrible than the first." That's not to say those voices are in the majority; on the same left-leaning opinion page, David Daoud argues Israel should consider invading Lebanon.

Israel's announcement that it will pull several thousand troops from Gaza may indicate that the war is scaling down, even if Israel's military has not said so. At the Financial Times, James Shotter reports: "While the US has been urging Israel to move to a more targeted, lower-intensity phase of its war against Hamas, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) cast the troop reductions as part a practical step to manage forces through what it expects to be several more months of fighting." The New York Times' Aaron Boxerman, Isabel Kershner, and Eric Schmitt write that "military analysts and U.S. officials say the troop withdrawal probably signals that such a change has begun, though they caution that the war is nowhere near over."

At Reuters, Dan Williams sees the war moving into a new phase: "With tanks and troops having now overrun much of the Gaza Strip, largely asserting control despite Palestinian gunmen continuing their ambushes from hidden tunnels and bunkers, the (Israeli) military is moving to the third stage, said (an Israeli) official, who could not be named in print given the sensitivity of the issue. 'This will take six months at least, and involve intense mopping-up missions against the terrorists. No one is talking about doves of peace being flown from Shajaia,' the official told Reuters, referring to a Gaza district ravaged by fighting."

NYT Reports Oct. 7 Sexual Violence; Hamas Denies It

A contentious topic since the horrific Hamas massacres of Israeli civilians on Oct. 7, allegations of sexual violence were the subject of a New York Times investigation by Jeffrey Gettleman, Anat Schwartz, and Adam Sella (accompanied by photographs by Avishag Shaar-Yashuv) published late last week. Their findings: "Israeli officials say that everywhere Hamas terrorists struck—the rave, the military bases along the Gaza border and the kibbutzim—they brutalized women. A two-month investigation by The Times uncovered painful new details, establishing that the attacks against women were not isolated events but part of a broader pattern of gender-based violence on Oct. 7. Relying on video footage, photographs, GPS data from mobile phones and interviews with more than 150 people, including witnesses, medical personnel, soldiers and rape counselors, The Times identified at least seven locations where Israeli women and girls appear to have been sexually assaulted or mutilated." As The Times of Israel's Gianluca Pacchiani notes, Hamas has denied The New York Times' report, claiming Western media is biased toward Israel and that female hostages have been treated well.

Zelensky on the Future

The Economist has conducted a year-end interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, noting his frustration and unease at wavering Western support in the face of Russia's ongoing invasion. The magazine writes: "The West has lost a sense of urgency and many Ukrainians have lost a sense of existential threat, Mr Zelensky says. He is now trying to rekindle both. 'Maybe we did not succeed [in 2023] as the world wanted. Maybe not everything is as fast as someone imagined,' he says, but the idea that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is winning is no more than a 'feeling'. … Mr Zelensky gives little away about what Ukraine can achieve in 2024, saying that leaks before last summer's counter-offensive helped Russia prepare its defences. But if he has a message, it is that Crimea and the connected battle in the Black Sea will become the war's centre of gravity. … But Mr Zelensky says that the speed of any success will depend on the military assistance he gets from Western partners. … Mr Zelensky is still less open about his goals in the east and the south."

That Sinking Feeling:

'Empathic Distress'

Given the fear and uncertainty of the early-Covid era, thankfully now behind us, this is saying a lot: 2023 was a difficult year for observers of world events. A depressing war continued in Ukraine; civil conflict broke out in Sudan; and the horrors of Oct. 7 were followed by a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, a wave of bitter politics over the broader Israeli–Palestinian conflict, allegations of genocide in multiple directions, and a disquieting surge in bigotry. Organizational psychologist and New York Times opinion contributor Adam Grant plumbs the body of psychological research to find a term for the combination of defeat and outrage many of us might be feeling: "empathic distress."

This form of exhaustion was examined in different terms by earlier researchers, Grant writes, but "when two neuroscientists, Olga Klimecki and Tania Singer, reviewed the evidence, they discovered that 'compassion fatigue' is a misnomer. Caring itself is not costly. What drains people is not merely witnessing others' pain but feeling incapable of alleviating it. In times of sustained anguish, empathy is a recipe for more distress, and in some cases even depression. What we need instead is compassion. Although they're often used interchangeably, empathy and compassion aren't the same. Empathy absorbs others' emotions as your own: 'I'm hurting for you.' Compassion focuses your action on their emotions: 'I see that you're hurting, and I'm here for you.' That's a big difference."

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