The Morning: How much does America spend?

Plus, Trump's tariffs, Marine Le Pen and a cake festival.

View in browser|nytimes.com March 31, 2025 by German Lopez and Ashley Wu Good morning. We're looking at what America spends its money on. We're also covering Trump's tariffs, Marine Le Pen and a cake festival. Source: The Hamilton Project | Data is not adjusted for inflation, and is through March 26 for all years. | By The New York Times What the U.S. spends Discussions about federal spending are difficult because the numbers are so large that they can be difficult to grasp. How many ordinary folks can truly comprehend how much $1 billion — that's a thousand millions — is? And still, it's a rounding error (just 0.01 percent of spending) compared with the nearly $7 trillion federal budget. This is the context for the federal spending cuts led by President Trump and Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency. Last week, the administration announced its latest dismissals: 10,000 employees at the Department of Health and Human Services. That sounds like a lot of people, but it's small for a government that employs three million civilian workers. How much has DOGE pared back so far? Federal spending is actually higher this year than it was at this point in 2024, according to the Hamilton Project. Today's newsletter walks through what the federal government spends money on, to clarify these big numbers and show the actual effects of Trump's efforts. Growing debt Since the early 2000s, the federal government has spent more money — sometimes much more — than it collects in taxes. That has caused the debt to grow to levels not seen since World War II. Source: Congressional Budget Office | Chart excludes debt the federal government owes itself. | By The New York Times For years, many economists downplayed concerns about the debt. Interest rates were low, and debt payments — the cost of borrowing all that money — were consequently low, too. Inflation was also low, which suggested that government spending hadn't overheated the economy. But interest rates and inflation have increased. Today, the federal government spends more to pay off its debt each year than it spends on Medicare or the military. Economists now warn that the federal debt is piling up too quickly. At the same time, politicians are scared of cutting popular programs. Trump has ruled out cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and the military. Along with interest payments, that's about 70 percent of what the government spends. There's an old saying among wonks: The United States government is just an insurance company with a standing army. Source: Treasury Department | Numbers may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. | By The New York Times All of the other programs you hear about (schools, welfare payments, foreign aid, medical research) make up roughly 30 percent of the federal budget. Trump would have to eliminate all of those to balance the budget without touching the programs he has deemed untouchable. DOGE's cuts Trump and Musk claim they can eliminate most of the deficit by downsizing the federal work force — the Times is tracking the firings here — and ending waste and fraud. This is the work DOGE says it's doing. But these efforts, too, are likely to fall short. Presidents and Congress have launched many initiatives over the past few decades to tackle waste and fraud. They did not find significant savings. Watchdogs also track improper payments, which include fraud, duplicate charges and payments to ineligible recipients. These made up $149 billion in the most recent fiscal year. Even if DOGE managed to root out all of these payments — a difficult task for many technical reasons, The Wall Street Journal reported — it would shrink the deficit by only 8 percent. Similarly, shrinking the federal work force can do only so much. Even if Musk managed to fire every civilian employee and cut their benefits — an outlandish scenario — he would reduce the deficit by just 14 percent. Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Treasury Department | By The New York Times Some layoffs could even increase the deficit. The Biden administration wanted to hire more workers at the Internal Revenue Service to crack down on tax cheats. Experts said the plan would bring in $2.5 in tax revenue for every $1 spent. Trump wants to get rid of the new employees anyway. DOGE claims it has slashed $130 billion in spending. But its ledger is filled with errors, my colleagues David Fahrenthold and Jeremy Singer-Vine reported. The agency has revised its estimate downward multiple times, in acknowledgments of mistakes. In the end, the debt problem remains what it has long been: Republicans and Democrats refuse to cut popular but expensive federal programs and don't want to raise taxes on most Americans. As long as that's true, the federal government will remain in the red. Related: Musk has made sweeping claims about fraud in government spending. Read a fact-check. THE LATEST NEWS Trump Tariffs In Tokyo. Manami Yamada/Reuters Trump is expected to announce more tariffs on America's biggest trading partners this week. Stocks around the world fell this morning. Other countries may respond with tariffs on the U.S. The administration is considering emergency aid for farmers who might be hit. Northern Minnesota produces most of America's iron ore. Trump's tariffs are meant to benefit its miners — but falling car sales could do the opposite. U.S. Foreign Policy Trump said he was very angry at Vladimir Putin and threatened to penalize countries that buy Russian oil if Russia thwarted a cease-fire deal with Ukraine. A yearlong Times investigation details the secret history of America's involvement in Ukraine, which ran deeper than previously known. Part 1 describes how the partnership began. This weekend, Trump reasserted that the U.S. would "100 percent" annex Greenland. The island's new prime minister said in response, "We decide our own future." The U.S. has banned most refugees, but Trump has made one exception: White South Africans. Nearly 40 nations denounced a mining company's plan to dig for metals beneath the Pacific Ocean. The company has said it will seek a U.S. permit, circumventing international law. The U.S. has been slow to send help after Myanmar's earthquake because of U.S.A.I.D. cuts. More on the Trump Administration Voters in Wisconsin will elect a new justice to the State Supreme Court tomorrow. The race has turned into a referendum on Trump. The White House abruptly fired two longtime career prosecutors without giving a reason. Justice Department officials called the move an alarming use of presidential power. Middle East Benjamin Netanyahu named a new domestic spy chief, even though the Israeli Supreme Court has suspended the dismissal of the current one. Israel has built outposts and fortifications in Syria and Lebanon, deepening those countries' concerns about a protracted Israeli occupation. Hamas said it had accepted a cease-fire proposal, less than two weeks after a previous deal collapsed. Israel said it was making a counterproposal. Read what to know. An Israeli operation in the West Bank has displaced tens of thousands of people. Aid groups say they're struggling to respond, The Washington Post reports. More International News Marine Le Pen Thibaud Moritz/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images A Paris court found the French far right leader Marine Le Pen guilty of embezzlement. This endangers her plans to run for president in 2027. The police in London forced their way into a Quaker meeting house and arrested activists gathered there to plan Gaza war protests. The chair of a charity founded by Prince Harry accused him of harassment and bullying to force her out of her post. Other Big Stories At Howard University. Maansi Srivastava for The New York Times The number of Black men attending four-year colleges has fallen, with a drastic shift at historically Black colleges and universities. Severe storms across the U.S. killed at least one person, with forecasts of strong winds, large hail and tornadoes. Warnings went out from Texas up to Michigan. Opinions Support for Ukraine is in America's interest because of the signal it sends countries like China and Iran, Representative Don Bacon, Republican of Nebraska, writes. Gail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss the leaked government Signal chat and the next president. Here are columns by David French on the leaked chat and Margaret Renkl on young women on social media. A subscription to match the variety of your interests. News. Games. Recipes. Product reviews. Sports reporting. A New York Times All Access subscription covers all of it and more. Subscribe today. MORNING READS In New York City.   Preparations: On the night before Eid al-Fitr, these mothers made the magic happen. Colombo: Insider tips for visitors to a Sri Lankan city with great design and seafood. Cold plunge: Finland says it can teach happiness. Here's how that went for an anxious American writer. Metropolitan Diary: Different definitions of old. Most clicked yesterday: One inopportunely timed sip of water during a hot yoga class caused an online uproar. Lives Lived: Richard Carlson, the father of the conservative commentator Tucker, won a Peabody Award for exposing fraud at a car company, and later ran Voice of America. He died at 84. SPORTS Men's college basketball: Auburn and Houston are through to the Final Four. The Athletic's data slightly favors Duke to win it all. Women's college basketball: South Carolina advanced to the Final Four. For the first time, U.C.L.A. did too. N.B.A.: A brawl during Minnesota's win over Detroit ended with five players and two coaches ejected. See the video. ARTS AND IDEAS At the Cake Picnic. Laura Morton for The New York Times At a recent event in San Francisco, there was only one rule: no cake, no entry. There thousands gathered with deserts both store-bought and homemade, sweet and savory for Cake Picnic, a touring festival that one attendee said was harder to get a ticket for than a Taylor Swift concert. See inside. More on culture The actor Richard Chamberlain died at 90 this weekend. He was the most compelling face of a maximalist, soapy television era, our TV critic writes. Johnny Mathis, among the best-selling recording artists of the 20th century and a pioneer of romantic ballads, will retire from touring after almost 70 years. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … David Malosh for The New York Times Bake chewy breakfast bars with oats, coconut, almond butter and dried cherries. Hand-wash clothes with the best detergent. Clean your white sneakers. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was echoing. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections, Sports Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. 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