The Morning: The Trump changes begin

Plus, Biden, the Gaza cease-fire and longevity.

View in browser|nytimes.com January 20, 2025 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering the start of Trump's second term — as well as Biden's final day, the Gaza cease-fire and longevity. Donald Trump at the Capital One Arena in Washington.  Doug Mills/The New York Times Inauguration Day The second Trump administration becomes a reality at noon Eastern today. In today's newsletter, my colleagues and I look at seven areas where Donald Trump is likely to make immediate changes to government policy. For each area, we'll also highlight one big unknown that will start to become clear in coming weeks. 1. Immigration Trump will almost certainly impose strict border rules and begin deporting more undocumented immigrants. The administration may start deportation raids tomorrow, in Chicago. The unknown: Still, it remains unclear how far Trump will go. Will he focus deportations on distinct groups — such as people who entered the country recently, who already have an order to leave or who have been charged with a crime? Or will he also deport people who have been here for years and built stable lives? 2. Tariffs Trump campaigned on a promise to impose tariffs of up to 20 percent on any goods entering the U.S., and he is likely to enact some tariffs quickly. By making foreign goods more expensive, he hopes to help American companies even if the policy raises consumer prices. The unknown: There is a big difference between a sweeping tariff that applies to all goods and targeted tariffs that focus on specific products (like technology equipment) or countries (like China). Trump's aides have sent mixed signals about which they will pursue, according to my colleague Ana Swanson, who covers trade. 3. China and TikTok The Trump administration is full of competing instincts on China policy, notes Edward Wong, a diplomatic correspondent for The Times. Several top advisers, like Marco Rubio, see China as a hostile power trying to weaken the U.S. Others in Trump's orbit, like Elon Musk, see China primarily as a huge market. Trump himself frequently criticizes China but admires its autocratic president, Xi Jinping. The unknown: Trump's China policy is among the most uncertain areas of the new administration. And it will require a quick decision — on TikTok. The Supreme Court on Friday unanimously upheld a bipartisan law forcing TikTok's Chinese owner to sell it or shut it down. Trump said over the weekend that he would likely decline to enforce the law for 90 days. Will he ultimately fold and allow China to continue controlling TikTok? Will he broker a sale? Or will he shut down TikTok if Xi refuses to allow a sale? (For more, I recommend Edward's story analyzing America's China policy.) 4. Abortion Trump understands that abortion has become a losing issue for the Republican Party, and he is unlikely to do as much as abortion opponents would like. But he will still probably take some steps to reduce access, my colleague Kate Zernike says. One possibility is that he'll make it easier for states to deny abortions during medical emergencies. The unknown: Pills now account for about two-thirds of abortions, and pro-abortion activists have succeeded in making the pills available even in states with tight restrictions. Those efforts have mitigated the impact of the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade. Whether the Trump administration clamps down on the interstate mailing of pills is the biggest question about its abortion policy. 5. Ukraine Trump has less patience for Ukraine than President Biden and many Senate Republicans do. As a result, the flow of U.S. weapons and money will almost certainly decrease. But the extent of the change remains unclear. The unknown: Since winning the election, Trump has sent mixed signals. He recently predicted that ending the Russia-Ukraine war could take six months (rather than one day, as he claimed as a candidate). My colleague Eric Schmitt says there is a good chance Trump will provide Ukraine with some additional aid, either publicly or covertly, to pressure Vladimir Putin to agree to a truce this year. 6. Iran Trump is more hawkish on Iran than on any other foreign adversary, and Iran is weaker today than it has been in years, thanks to its struggling economy and Israel's recent military successes. Trump is likely to place more pressure on Iran than Biden did, starting with sanctions. The unknown: Is the next step a peace deal or a military attack? In one scenario, Trump would pursue a deal with tough terms for Iran, including an end to its nuclear program and restrictions on its support for extremist groups like Hamas. In another scenario, Trump would sign off on an Israeli military attack against Iran's nuclear facilities, with potential U.S. cooperation. 7. Climate Trump shows little concern about climate change and will reverse some major Biden policies. My colleague Coral Davenport expects Trump to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement, expand oil and gas drilling and loosen pollution regulations. The unknown: The fate of the clean-energy subsidies in Biden's signature 2022 climate legislation is less clear. Many of these subsidies — for wind, solar and battery production, for example — flow to Republican House districts. Coral expects that some subsidies may be doomed (like the $7,500 consumer tax credit for electric vehicles) but that others may survive. What's next The list here isn't complete. It doesn't include tax policy, because a bill will take months to wend through Congress. And it doesn't include the question of how Trump will use presidential power to benefit his allies and potentially punish his political opponents. We'll address those issues in future newsletters. (Here is a list of his pledges for changing American life.) We've focused today on major areas in which Trump can quickly shift policy. His executive actions will provide more clarity starting today. THE LATEST NEWS Trump's Inauguration Donald Trump Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times Trump's inauguration will be held today inside the Capitol Rotunda, to avoid the cold outside. He is completing a political comeback unlike any in American history, Peter Baker writes. He is also returning to the White House in a far stronger position than he was in last time. Trump's supporters flew from around the world to see him take office. Many are disappointed they can't watch the inauguration outside — and they are left out of Washington's exclusive parties. Trump held a rare pre-inauguration rally at an arena. "Tomorrow at noon, the curtain closes on four long years of American decline," he said in a speech. Trump wants to appear strong on Day 1 by signing many executive orders. Read what to expect today. More on Trump Today is also Martin Luther King Day. As Trump takes office, some people are questioning the state of civil rights in America. Trump plans to strip job protections for career civil servants in his first few days in office, according to the incoming deputy chief of staff. More Americans support Trump's policies — such as mass deportations — than support Trump, a poll by The Times and Ipsos found. Mexico's president has detained more migrants and seized more fentanyl ahead of Trump's return. Trump targeted scientists in his first term. They have taken steps to limit political interference in their work this time. TikTok TikTok publicly thanked Trump for his support as it fights a ban in the U.S. It included a message in the app crediting him with its return. Trump's solution may fall short, David Sanger explains. Biden Administration President Biden embracing Representative James Clyburn. Cheriss May for The New York Times Biden spent his final full day as president in South Carolina, where he revived his flailing campaign five years ago. "We must hold on to hope. We must stay engaged," he told supporters during a visit to a historically Black church. Biden pardoned five activists and public servants, including a posthumous grant of clemency to the civil rights leader Marcus Garvey. Gaza Cease-Fire Emily Damari arrives at Sheba Hospital in Israel.  Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York Times Three hostages were freed in the first phase of the cease-fire agreement between Hamas and Israel. Hours later, Israel released 90 Palestinian prisoners. Fighting may have halted in Gaza, but the war is not over: The initial deal is fragile, Steven Erlanger writes, and making it permanent will be difficult. As the cease-fire came into effect, Hamas fighters took to streets of Gaza in a show of force. "The weight on my chest has lifted": The truce left Palestinians and Israelis elated and anxious all at once. California Wildfires People who fled the fires in Los Angeles have returned, only to find that smoke and ash have made their homes unbearable. Dangerous winds are expected in Southern California today as firefighters still work to fully contain the fires. Other Big Stories A winter storm hit parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The coldest air in years is expected descend across much of the U.S. today. The World Economic Forum will meet in Davos this week. On the agenda this year: the future of Ukraine and climate change. The C.I.A. has developed a chatbot that lets analysts talk with virtual versions of foreign leaders. Opinions How do you prevent a president from becoming a king? America's founding fathers had no answer, Stacy Schiff writes. The U.S. is in an era of wildfires, and we need to learn how to live with them, Liz Koslov and Kathryn McConnell write. Gail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss Trump's inauguration. Here are columns by Ezra Klein on Trump's cultural victory and David French on religious freedom. Receive free access to handpicked articles via text message. Now you can get Times journalism sent right to your phone. Each article will be accessible for 30 days. Sign up now MORNING READS Jackie Kennedy at the inauguration in 1961. Paul Schutzer/The LIFE Picture Collection, via Shutterstock Political style: First ladies often make statements with their Inauguration Day outfits. See 80 years of first lady fashion. Travel: Never heard of Yogyakarta? It might be the center of the universe. Living forever: For centuries, men seeking to cheat death have mixed science with quackery. Metropolitan Diary: Looking good for 91. Lives Lived: Lynne Taylor-Corbett was a Tony Award-nominated choreographer and director whose career included commissions for New York City Ballet and the film "Footloose." She died at 78. SPORTS N.F.L.: The Bills defeated the Ravens in Buffalo, 27-25, to advance to the A.F.C. title game. On the other side of the bracket, the Eagles took a spot in the N.F.C. championship after a 28-22 win over the Rams. N.H.L.: Connor McDavid, the Oilers star, is likely to receive a suspension after cross-checking Conor Garland, the Canucks winger. ARTS AND IDEAS Neon; A24; MGM Sex scenes are back, but they aren't exactly sexy. In movies like "Anora" and "Babygirl," the directors use intimate moments to explore complex power dynamics. Their aim is to engender discussion, not arousal. Esther Zuckerman highlights five scenes that do this especially well. More on culture "Mufasa: The Lion King," which opened to weak ticket sales last month, has become a sleeper hit. The beloved children's YouTuber Ms. Rachel (her real name is Rachel Accurso) announced a deal with Netflix. Her other ventures include toys, apparel and a publishing deal with Random House. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Jessica Emily Marx for The New York Times Honor the life of David Lynch with this "Twin Peaks" cherry pie. Keep your texts private. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was etymology. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018