The Morning: Murders plunge

Plus, New Year's celebrations, Ukraine and food trends.

View in browser|nytimes.com January 1, 2025 By German Lopez Happy new year! We're covering a drop in crime — plus, last night's celebrations, Ukraine and food trends. A gun dropped by a suspect while being chased by police. Dakota Santiago for The New York Times Understanding crime The last year was often tumultuous and chaotic, but it ended with good news: Murders and crime in general declined across the country throughout 2024. I know some of you will be skeptical about the trend. You may have seen reports about the problems with national crime data. The F.B.I. recently had to revise its own numbers, showing that violent crime actually increased in 2022 — not decreased, as it previously reported. Can you really trust national crime statistics? But here at The Morning, we have never relied on the F.B.I.'s data. We use figures directly from local and state police departments, independently compiled in the Real-Time Crime Index by the crime analyst Jeff Asher's team. In today's newsletter, I'll explain what the numbers show. Continued decline The data contains a lot of good news. First, the drop in murders that began in 2022 has accelerated. Murders fell so quickly that 2024 could have ended with fewer murders than the year before the pandemic. The nationwide murder rate was still on track to be higher than it was during its lowest point ever recorded, in 2014, but not much higher. (The 2024 data is up-to-date through October.) Source: Real Time Crime Index | By The New York Times If the drop in murders continued at the same rate for the rest of the year, 2024 had the largest percent decrease — nearly 16 percent — ever recorded nationwide. Other violent crimes also declined. Robberies and rapes were lower than they were before the pandemic. Aggravated assaults were still elevated from the pre-Covid days, but they trended down in 2024. Property crimes as a whole also fell, although auto thefts in particular remained higher than they were before the pandemic. Source: Real Time Crime Index | By The New York Times In general, the data suggests the pandemic, and its consequences, contributed to more crime: Disorder rose and fell along with Covid. The data does not encompass the entire country. It tracks 300 cities with about one quarter of the U.S. population. But national trends are historically similar to those of so many cities put together. This data is also all we have for now, although the F.B.I. told me that, soon, it plans to start releasing national crime data on a monthly basis. Finding agreement It is strange that we have to rely on a privately funded crime index instead of the government to get this data. Asher and his team are simply collecting data from as many police departments as possible and posting it in real time. A federal agency should be able to do the same. The data is a matter of public interest, but also one of public safety. The country's inability to reliably track national crime statistics makes it harder to respond to problems. Consider how Congress deals with economic crises. We get economic statistics on a monthly basis, and federal lawmakers can quickly pivot. In 2020 and 2021, Congress passed three major stimulus measures in response to data showing that Covid had damaged the economy. In that same period, murders and other crimes were on the rise. But the lack of national data made it difficult to know if the rise was truly national or constrained to the few cities releasing real-time data. Congress never passed an anti-crime equivalent of an economic stimulus bill. Asher hopes that his work will help get people to agree on the crime trends. Then, policymakers can work on solutions. "The conversation we should be having isn't: What are the trends?" he said. "The conversations we should be having are: What's causing it? Who's at fault? Who's to credit? What programs are working?" THE LATEST NEWS International The flow of natural gas from Russia to Europe halted after Ukraine refused to renew a pipeline agreement. The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, jabbed at Elon Musk, without naming him, after Musk endorsed Alternative for Germany, a far-right party. A former undocumented resident of California now runs a town in Mexico. He has become a cartel target and has already survived one assassination attempt. South Korea Crash At Muan airport in South Korea.  Chang W. Lee/The New York Times See these videos and maps that show how a Jeju Air flight crashed and became the deadliest aviation disaster in years. One father didn't tell his son he was flying because he didn't want him to worry. His son only found out after the crash. New York A man shoved another man into the path of a subway train in Manhattan. The victim is in critical condition, and the police charged a 23-year-old with attempted murder. Officials identified the woman who died last week when she was set on fire while sleeping on the subway. Read about Debrina Kawam's life. Politics Ilulissat Icefjord in Greenland. Sean Gallup/Getty Images Donald Trump wants to control Greenland and the Panama Canal. Climate change is making both places more important. The Iran hostage crisis became a symbol of Jimmy Carter's failed re-election bid. The hostages themselves say he saved their lives. Trump said he'll attend Carter's funeral. Other Big Stories In Yakutsk, Russia.  Vadim Skryabin/Reuters People celebrated the new year around the world. See photos from Siberia and Sydney. Norovirus outbreaks are rising in the U.S., the C.D.C. said. Here's a guide to the illness and its symptoms. John Roberts, the Supreme Court's chief justice, condemned threats to judicial independence. Passengers say they have seen bedbugs on Turkish Airlines planes. They said the airline did not take action. Opinions Democrats in Congress should not act as an opposition party against Trump, but compromise on his agenda instead, Tom Suozzi, a representative from New York, writes. Society needs messy people, KC Davis argues. Here's a column by Carlos Lozada on disagreement. A subscription to match the variety of your interests. News. Games. Recipes. Product reviews. Sports reporting. A New York Times All Access subscription covers all of it and more. Subscribe today. MORNING READS In Rio de Janeiro. Maria Magdalena Arréllaga for The New York Times Rio: Under a highway, a dance style born in the 1970s is charming a new generation. Y2K: A Times reporter reflects on the computer panic that gripped the world 25 years ago. Insights: These are the charts that surprised Upshot reporters this year — including flight delays and Connections scores. California: Dangerous encounters with mountain lions are on the rise in the state. Can humans and big cats coexist? Letter of Recommendation: Relish embarrassment. Did you know? Here are some of the most fascinating facts found in The Times last year. Home refresh: The backsplash could be the star of your kitchen, if you let it. Lives Lived: Aaron Brown was a CNN anchor whose live coverage of Sept. 11 became one of the best-known accounts of the attacks. He died at 76. SPORTS College football: Penn State beat Boise State, 31-14, to advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals. The rest of the quarterfinal slate is today. N.H.L.: Fans packed Wrigley Field to watch the Blues beat the Blackhawks, 6-2, in the Winter Classic. Read a recap. Tennis: The Olympic medal winner Gabriela Dabrowski revealed that she had played the entire 2024 season with breast cancer. ARTS AND IDEAS Another forecast: More elaborate takeout packaging. Karsten Moran for The New York Times What food trends can Americans expect this year? Forecasters are looking out for an obsession with sauces; savory coffee drinks with flavors including lemongrass and rosemary smoke; and more buzz around nonalcoholic drinks. See more predictions. For more: Our Styles desk made their own predictions about fashion, politics and life in 2025. More on culture Justin Baldoni Bryan Bedder/Getty Images Justin Baldoni sued The New York Times, claiming that he had been defamed in an article in which Blake Lively alleged that she was the victim of a smear campaign. The Times defended its reporting. The Atlantic is bolstering its politics coverage by poaching staff from The Washington Post. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Romulo Yanes for The New York Times Crisp the edges on these pancakes. Score a first-class upgrade. Try these fitness resolutions that aren't about weight loss. Invest in self-care this year. Cozy up with an electric blanket. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was hyphenate. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —German Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. 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