The Morning: Fewer child vaccinations

Plus, California, Syria and TV show openings.

View in browser|nytimes.com January 13, 2025 Good morning. Today, my colleague Francesca Paris writes about falling childhood vaccinations. We're also covering California, Syria and TV show openings. —David Leonhardt Frederic J. Brown/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Unvaxxed By Francesca Paris I'm a data reporter. After years of holding steady, American vaccination rates against once-common childhood diseases fell during the coronavirus pandemic and continued to drop for much of the past four years. Source: C.D.C. | By The New York Times Nationwide, less than 93 percent of kindergartners completed the measles vaccine last year, down from 95 percent, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Immunization rates against polio, whooping cough and chickenpox fell similarly. And there have been far more precipitous drops in some states, counties and school districts. Source: C.D.C. | Prepandemic figures are averages of the school years between 2017 and 2020, for states with available data in those years. | By The New York Times States, not the federal government, set vaccine mandates. But the incoming Trump administration could encourage anti-vaccine sentiment and undermine state programs. The president-elect's pick for health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has spread the false theory that vaccines cause autism, among other misinformation. Already, falling vaccination rates have followed a partisan pattern. There are two ways vaccination rates can drop: More families can get an exemption, which gives them legal permission to skip vaccines; or more families can fail to vaccinate their children without permission. In states that supported Donald Trump for president, the number of children receiving exemptions rose. The story with noncompliance is more complex. It rose in both blue and red states, although more in red states. (An unknown amount of noncompliance reflects families that did vaccinate their children but didn't file the paperwork verifying they'd done so.) Source: C.D.C. | Charts exclude Montana. Some states are missing data for certain years. | By The New York Times Surveys reveal a new and deep partisan division on this issue. In 2019, 67 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters told Gallup that childhood immunizations were "extremely important," compared with 52 percent of their Republican counterparts. Five years later, the enthusiasm among the Democratic grouping had fallen only slightly, to 63 percent. For Republicans and G.O.P. leaners, it had plunged to 26 percent. Lawmakers in red states have tried to roll back school vaccine mandates, but most changes have been minor: Louisiana required schools to pair any mandate notifications with information about exemption laws; Idaho allowed 18-year-old students to exempt themselves; and Montana stopped collecting data from schools on immunizations. The decline in vaccination seems likely to have consequences. "Herd immunity," in which unvaccinated children can't easily spread measles because others are protected, requires about 92 percent inoculation. The further rates fall, the more likely an outbreak becomes. For children, measles and other once-common childhood diseases can lead to hospitalization and occasionally death. "It's trouble waiting to happen," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt. There are thousands more schools with vaccination rates below 90 percent than there were just five years ago, according to a New York Times analysis of data from 22 states. Schools with falling rates can be found in red and blue states, in large urban districts and in small rural ones. You can see the change in states in the article we published today. For more Polio once paralyzed and killed thousands of people a year in the U.S. Lagging vaccination could lead to a resurgence. If immunizations continue to fall, experts say that adults — even those who are vaccinated — could be vulnerable to childhood diseases like measles, mumps and rubella. THE LATEST NEWS California Fires In Los Angeles. Max Whittaker for The New York Times Crews have made progress fighting the wildfires, but forecasters expect another round of strong winds to hit Los Angeles starting today. The two largest fires are still far from contained. See maps of them. At least 24 people have been killed. Read about the victims. Before taking office three years ago, L.A.'s mayor said she would not travel internationally in her role. She was traveling back from Ghana when the fires erupted. Gov. Gavin Newsom suspended California's costly and time-consuming environmental review process for homeowners and businesses whose property was damaged or destroyed. Some wealthy people in Southern California are calling private firefighting crews from other states for help. Their services cost thousands of dollars a day. Through home cameras, residents have watched the fires consume their homes. Watch the videos. Trump Transition Pete Hegseth Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times Senate confirmation hearings are set this week for more than a dozen of Donald Trump's cabinet picks. It will be a test of Trump's hold on Senate Republicans. In Trump's first term, the U.S. had a mostly harmonious relationship with the Gulf States. This time, they appear to diverge on issues including Israel and Iran. Elon Musk and Trump are wading into European politics. Europe seems ill-prepared for this new age of American interference, Katrin Bennhold writes. International Religious minorities in Syria are worried about their post-Assad future. Hamas, now under the leadership of Yahya Sinwar's brother, is recruiting new fighters in Gaza, The Wall Street Journal reports. China's trade surplus reached nearly $1 trillion last year. Other Big Stories Undocumented workers pay billions in taxes that help fund programs like Social Security. Tonight is the first full moon of the year. In some places, it will pass in front of a bright Mars. Opinions It's Paul Offit's job to be a vaccine skeptic — to ask pharmaceutical companies to prove that their products are safe. He argues that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. goes beyond skepticism and refuses to accept science. Rachel Feintzeig offers a guide for surviving January, which she believes is the worst month of the year. Gail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss the California wildfires and Trump's sentencing. Here are columns by David French on Texas's pornography ban and Pamela Paul on historians' views on Israel. A subscription to match the variety of your interests. News. Games. Recipes. Product reviews. Sports reporting. A New York Times All Access subscription covers all of it and more. Subscribe today. MORNING READS The Cantal area of France. Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York Times Restorations: Churches in France are struggling to pay for repairs. Raw truths: People are posting online about the benefits of drinking raw milk. Read what we know about the science. Work: Is H.R. really your friend? Don't count on it. Metropolitan Diary: The octopus can't come in. Lives Lived: Richard Hays was a methodist minister and leading New Testament theologian who sent a thunderclap into the evangelical world by asserting that a deeper reading of the Bible revealed that same-sex relationships are not sinful. He died at 76. SPORTS N.F.L.: The Washington Commanders won their first playoff game since the 2005 season with a 23-20 road victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. See the game-winning field goal. New England Patriots: The team hired Mike Vrabel, who won three Super Bowls with the franchise as a player, to be its next head coach. Women's college basketball: Pittsburgh overcame a 32-point deficit to beat S.M.U., 72-59, the largest comeback (in regulation) in the sport's history. ARTS AND IDEAS The opening titles for "The Last of Us."  Opening titles on TV have become intense. The intro for "The Last of Us" shows fungi responsible for turning humankind into zombies. The one for "Game of Thrones" presents a map that also looks like a medieval machine. In recent years, our critic James Poniewozik writes, TV openings meant to be distinctive have become awfully familiar. More on culture It's time for a fashion revolution, and new designers at global brands should seize the opportunity, Vanessa Friedman writes. People are wearing grown-up versions of bonnets. Meghan, the Duchess of Sussex, postponed the premiere of her new Netflix show because of the California wildfires. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Linda Xiao for The New York Times Velvet chicken to make it silky and tender, then stir-fry in a butter-soy sauce. Clean your plants. Go hiking with a hydration pack. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangrams were participant and patrician. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. P.S. The New York Times Communities Fund, a charitable fund that distributes 100 percent of donations to vetted local, national and global nonprofits, wraps up its holiday campaign this week. Read about the effort, and donate, here. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. 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