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lunes, 4 de noviembre de 2024

Monday Briefing: One day to the U.S. election

Plus, results from a runoff vote in Moldova
Morning Briefing: Europe Edition

November 4, 2024

Good morning. We're covering the last day before Election Day in the U.S. and the results of a runoff vote in Moldova.

Plus: The silliest pair of jeans?

People lean over as they fill out ballots.
Early voting in Michigan on Sunday. Nick Hagen for The New York Times

75 million Americans have voted early

A day before Election Day, an anxious America, weary from the campaign and worried about the state of the nation's democracy, is voting with determination, with roughly 75 million people having cast ballots in the early voting period. In nine states, more than 50 percent of eligible voters have already voted.

Projections from early voting indicate that the overall turnout will probably be between that of 2016, when roughly 60 percent of eligible voters turned out, and of 2020, when two-thirds of eligible voters participated, setting a modern record.

In the final set of Times/Siena College polls, Kamala Harris is now narrowly ahead in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while Donald Trump leads in Arizona. They're both locked in close races in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania. But the results in all seven battleground states are within the margin of sampling error, meaning no candidate has a decisive lead.

Analysis: Usually, the final polls point toward a relatively clear favorite, even if that candidate doesn't go on to win, wrote Nate Cohn, the Times's chief political analyst. But this will not be one of those elections.

On the campaign trail: As Harris visited a church in Detroit yesterday, Trump told supporters that he "shouldn't have left" the White House after the 2020 election.

Your questions: We asked Campbell Robertson, a national reporter, this question from a reader.

Why is Pennsylvania a swing state? What demographics are responsible for it being so? — Rebecca I., Sweden

Campbell: On Pennsylvania's corners sit two large, Democratic-voting cities — Philadelphia and Pittsburgh — surrounded by bands of increasingly liberal suburbs. But about half of Pennsylvania residents live outside these two major metro areas, in smaller cities and rural areas across the state. Many of these places were once humming with steel mills and factories, and home to many union members, a reliable Democratic base.

But as industry declined over the decades, the electorate in these areas steadily moved toward the right. The share of college-educated adults is growing in Pennsylvania, as is the number of nonwhite voters. But currently a slight majority of the state's voters are white people without college degrees, Trump's most reliable demographic.

For more: Campbell talked to Pennsylvania voters about how they are feeling.

2024

More on the U.S. election

The election is tomorrow.

Children and adults in front of damaged buildings.
Palestinian children arriving for polio vaccinations. Omar Al-Qattaa/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Gazan children got a second polio vaccine

Nearly 94,000 children in Gaza City received a second dose of polio vaccine this weekend in an effort that was delayed by intense Israeli bombardment and mass evacuation orders in northern Gaza, the Gazan health ministry said. The campaign is scheduled to continue through today.

The first round of vaccinations, in September, covered all of northern Gaza. Since then, the Israeli military has launched an intense offensive in the area against what it has said is a resurgence of Hamas.

Long read: An Israeli college student shared posts on Instagram — then the police arrested her for incitement. Read about her story.

In other news:

  • Some residents of towns in southern Lebanon where Hezbollah does not hold sway say they feel trapped in the crossfire between Israel's firepower and Hezbollah's fighters.
  • Iran's supreme leader said on Saturday that Israel and the U.S. would "receive a crushing response" to the strikes on his country, as the Pentagon said it would deploy additional resources to the region.
  • Since Oct. 7, 2023, Hollywood has struggled with how to handle the conflict. Meet the Israeli influencer helping stars craft their social media message.
  • The State Department confirmed that it was looking into reports that an Iranian-American citizen had been arrested in Iran. Rights groups last month said that Reza Valizadeh, an Iranian-American journalist, was being held in a Tehran prison without access to a lawyer.
Maia Sandu, surrounded by supporters, holds a bouquet of roses.
Maia Sandu, Moldova's president. Vadim Ghirda/Associated Press

Moldova's president won a runoff vote

The president of Moldova, Maia Sandu, a pro-Western leader, won re-election yesterday in a runoff vote against a rival candidate she had denounced as "Moscow's man." With more than 98 percent of ballots counted, official results gave Sandu about 55 percent of the vote.

The vote was held a week after a contested election in Georgia, another former Soviet territory, handed victory to the Moscow-leaning governing party, and it was closely watched by the U.S., the E.U. and Russia as a critical test of Moldova's direction.

Ukraine: The U.S. election tomorrow will almost certainly shape the course of the country in profoundly different ways depending on who wins the White House.

MORE TOP NEWS

A bearded man in a striped blue shirt looks up at a younger man, who is wearing a black T-shirt splattered with mud.
Manaure Quintero/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

SPORTS NEWS

MORNING READ

A man in a pair of pants with stuffed animals on them.
Edwin Salazar

Would you wear 200 stuffed animals? Le Rêve Nazam's teddy bear jeans are the surprising internet fashion hit of the year. (Only the front is Muppetized, so you can still sit in them.)

Lives lived: The environmental artist Patricia Johanson, who transformed water treatment plants and fetid ponds into enticing natural artworks, has died at 84.

CONVERSATION STARTERS

ARTS AND IDEAS

An illustration with several questions in pink bubbles.
The New York Times

Let generative A.I. take you on a 'decision holiday'

Generative A.I. has important usages in industries like medicine and business consulting. But it can also handle more everyday matters: grocery lists, haircuts, in-laws.

Kashmir Hill, who covers technology and privacy for The Times, conducted what she called an "admittedly ridiculous experiment" to see how generative A.I. might help the largest work force of them all: harried parents.

Kashmir used two dozen generative A.I. tools for daily tasks and nearly 100 decisions over a week. "My automated advisers saved me time and alleviated the burden of constantly making choices," she wrote, "but they seemed to have an agenda: Turn me into a Basic B."

Read more about her experiment here.

We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times.

RECOMMENDATIONS

A bowl of red-orange soup with greens and tortellini pasta.
Christopher Testani for The New York Times

Cook: This creamy tortellini soup is hearty, comforting and quick.

Ponder: Let our critic walk you through "Party Politics," a poem by Philip Larkin that speaks to his mood right now.

Watch: "Yellowstone," a wildly popular TV western, has captured America's attention.

Gaze: Which home would you buy in Sardinia, Italy, for $1.6 million?

Read: In "The Interpretation of Cats," Claude Béata explores the inscrutable behavior of our feline companions.

Play the Spelling Bee. And here are today's Mini Crossword and Wordle. You can find all our puzzles here.

That's it for today's briefing. See you tomorrow. — Natasha

Reach Natasha and the team at briefing@nytimes.com.

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