Thursday Briefing: The global stakes of the U.S. election

Our correspondents around the world weigh in.

View in browser|nytimes.com October 31, 2024 By Natasha Frost Good morning. We're covering Britain's budget and how the next U.S. administration may shape the world. Plus: How sugar affects the body. Early voting is underway in many states. Bing Guan for The New York Times The global impact of the U.S. election The world doesn't pick the American president, but it will live with the consequences of whoever is elected — Vice President Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. Times correspondents around the world gave their views on what's at stake. Read their full answers here. "Israelis, if they could, would vote by a large margin for Trump — the polls show that very clearly. But whoever wins, the long-term impact will probably be limited. Israeli society, not to mention the government, is more opposed to Palestinian statehood and a two-state solution than it has been in decades. No U.S. president is likely to change that." — Patrick Kingsley, Jerusalem bureau chief "There is one way in which a Trump victory would unambiguously strengthen Putin: It would mean an America that's far less engaged in the world and in Europe, which Putin sees as his rightful sphere of interest." — Anton Troianovski, Moscow bureau chief "Donald Trump says 'tariff' is 'the most beautiful word in the dictionary. More beautiful than love, more beautiful than respect.' So this election is, among other things, a referendum on the entire global trade system, with U.S. voters making a choice that could affect the entire world." — Ana Swanson, domestic correspondent covering trade and international economics "This is perhaps the first truly existential election for the climate. The U.S. is the world's biggest historic carbon emitter, and its second-biggest right now after China. What it does at home will impact the entire world's ability to avert catastrophic climate change." — Somini Sengupta, international climate reporter For more: Read our interview with Steven Erlanger, The Times's chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe, about how Europe sees the election. More on the U.S. election The election is five days away. A new report showed that the U.S. economy was growing at a healthy pace — contrary to the impression of many Americans. The economy remains the No. 1 issue in the presidential election for voters. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor and former Republican governor of California, endorsed Harris. In the final days of a coin-toss election, gaffes by President Biden have caused headaches for the Harris campaign. Many of Trump's top military and national security advisers now call him a "liar," "fascist" and "unfit." Big-money operatives are taking advantage of lax rules at the end of the campaign to hide the true sources of their money. When will the election be called? Here's what we know. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor of the Exchequer. Tolga Akmen/EPA, via Shutterstock Britain announces a blockbuster budget Rachel Reeves, the chancellor of the Exchequer in Britain, announced the Labour government's new budget yesterday, making her the first woman to do so. The budget includes about 40 billion pounds ($51.8 billion) in tax increases, more than half of which would come from higher payroll taxes, as well as increases on capital gains and inheritance taxes, as Britain seeks a route out of economic stagnation. The budget also increased public spending by £70 billion a year over the next five years. The changes would take the tax burden — a measure of tax revenue as a share of gross domestic product — to the highest on record. Read more about the budget. Quotable: "The choices that I have made today are the right choices for our country," Reeves said. "That doesn't mean these choices are easy." Analysis: "This budget delivers one of the largest increases in spending, tax and borrowing of any single fiscal event in history," said Richard Hughes, chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent watchdog. The aftermath of a strike near Sidon, Lebanon, on Wednesday. Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York Times Israel has demolished over 1,000 buildings in Lebanon Israel's military yesterday warned residents of Baalbek, a city in eastern Lebanon, to evacuate, appearing to extend its campaign against Hezbollah strongholds beyond the country's south. Satellite imagery and videos show widespread destruction in several villages along Lebanon's southern border in the month since Israel invaded the country. At least 1,085 buildings have been leveled or badly damaged, including at least 200 in controlled demolitions, a Times analysis shows. Before and after photos offer a clear view of the damage. Diplomacy: William Burns, the C.I.A. director, is expected to be in Cairo today for talks with Egyptian officials on cease-fire proposals. MORE TOP NEWS David Ramos/Getty Images Spain: At least 95 people died and others were missing in the east of the country after devastating flash floods. Ukraine: Moscow has used torture and forced Russian citizenship to try to obliterate Ukrainian identity, former detainees and human rights groups said. Syria: The U.S. military said it carried out airstrikes on Monday on several locations that killed up to 35 Islamic State militants. Taiwan: Super Typhoon Kong-rey was expected to be one of the most powerful storms ever to hit the island so late in the year. Science: Researchers announced the discovery of a 161 million-year-old fossil tadpole, the oldest yet found. Business & Economics Trade: The E.U. imposed tariffs as high as 45 percent on Chinese electric vehicles, even as Spain is trying to expand its economic ties with China. Elon Musk: SpaceX is moving in a big way into building U.S. military and spy satellites. Eurozone: Economic output grew 0.4 percent, an anemic pace that is keeping Europe behind the U.S. Business: Volkswagen reported a 42 percent drop in profit as it considered plant closures and layoffs in Germany. SPORTS NEWS Manchester United: The interim head coach, Ruud van Nistelrooy, said he would "help and serve" the club for as long as he was needed. Soccer: Is height really an advantage for players? College sports: Athletes are dealing with the strains of travel and the pressures of trying to balance competing roles more than ever. MORNING READ Jonathan E. Jareb Scott Burton, one of America's leading sculptors at the time, entrusted his estate to the Museum of Modern Art in 1989, when he was sick with AIDS. He thought he was securing a permanent place in art history books. Instead, the decision has made him a mere footnote. "I thought it was a good idea at the time," said Max Protetch, Burton's longtime art dealer. "It turns out to have not worked that way." Lives lived: John Gierach, a fly fisherman, was as skilled with a rod and reel as he was with words. Gierach wrote hundreds of articles and more than 20 books, including "Even Brook Trout Get the Blues" and "Sex, Death and Fly-Fishing." He died at 77. CONVERSATION STARTERS Global affairs: Counting the number of continents may not be as easy as one might think. Frappuccino decline: Fans of Starbucks say that the coffee giant has lost something. Dropping sales would seem to confirm the theory. Psychic to the stars: Frank Andrews did readings for John Lennon, Princess Grace and other celebrities. At 83, he is still talking to ghosts. HEALTH Rosa Sawyers This is your body on sugar Sugar is added to so many foods and drinks — sodas, candies, breakfast cereals, salad dressings, breads — that most of us probably consume more than our bodies were meant to handle. Over time, this can increase the risk of health problems. For example, some people can have trouble absorbing fructose, a common kind of simple sugar. If fructose lingers in the gut, bacteria can ferment it, potentially causing gas, bloating and abdominal pain. Sugar also causes dopamine surges. Too many of those, and your brain could be rewired to keep you reaching for the sweets. Here's a "head, shoulders, knees and toes" guide to sugar. We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times. RECOMMENDATIONS Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews. Cook: This 40-year-old chicken recipe is still going strong. Read: "Nora Ephron at the Movies," examines the writer's work, including "When Harry Met Sally" and "Heartburn." Travel: How a British Airways pilot spent 24 hours in Mumbai. Listen: Piano trios are a major theme in jazz this year. Swim: These underwater headphones actually work. Play the Spelling Bee. And here are today's Mini Crossword and Wordle. You can find all our puzzles here. That's it for today's briefing. See you tomorrow. — Natasha Reach Natasha and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for Morning Briefing: Europe Edition from The New York Times. To stop receiving Morning Briefing: Europe Edition, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. 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