The Morning: Threats to voting

Plus, John Kelly, a German princess and Japanese rice.

View in browser|nytimes.com October 23, 2024 Good morning. My colleague Emily Bazelon explains the potential risks to a fair election. We're also covering John Kelly, a German princess and Japanese rice. —David Leonhardt Voting in Henderson, Nev. Steve Marcus/Las Vegas Sun, via Associated Press Voting risks By Emily Bazelon I write about the law for The New York Times Magazine. Voting in this year's election is well underway in many states, mostly by mail. So is the worrying over what could go disastrously wrong. The 2020 election went smoothly: It saw record-high turnout despite the pandemic and only minuscule evidence of voting fraud. But there are new risks this year. A third of state and local election officials have resigned since 2020. In many states, allies of Donald Trump attack the election system and its workers. Which potential risks to a fair election in November merit serious concern? Nathaniel Persily, a Stanford law professor who spends much of his time on the phone with election officials, says he's less concerned about A.I. deep fakes and foreign meddling on social media, which appear to have little impact. It's also helpful that at least half of ballots will likely be cast before Election Day, providing an early-warning system for some problems. Persily's overarching concern is uncertainty on or soon after Nov. 5. If the Electoral College is close, unresolved questions about how to count ballots in key battleground states could cause chaos. For example: Violence or cyberattacks. A disruption of voting on Election Day can disenfranchise people. The worst problems might include physical threats that shut down a polling place or a counting facility. A cyberattack could also halt or hijack operations, affecting, for example, the election-night reporting system that media outlets rely on. But the effect might be limited by the fact that 98 percent of voters will cast paper ballots, including every vote cast in battleground states. Interference from partisan poll watchers. Challenges to some voters (for example, about whether their IDs are valid) can deter others, especially if word spreads beyond a single polling place. "The perception of a problem can be as bad as the problem itself," Persily said. Weather. Hurricanes in southern states have shut down some early-voting locations and disrupted mail-in balloting. (Florida and North Carolina hadn't started early voting when the storms hit.) People who fled may not receive mail-in ballots on time or be able to return to polling places. Different rules for contested ballots. In the swing state of Pennsylvania, 67 different partisan county boards make rules on notifying voters about mistakes on mail ballots and whether they can fix those mistakes. That's the kind of differential treatment of votes, within a state, that the Supreme Court rejected in Bush v. Gore. Predictions for the number of rejected ballots in Pennsylvania range from 29,000 to 43,000, based on recent elections. In a very close race, local decisions about which ballots to count would wind up in court, without a pre-established statewide rule for resolving all disputes. Similar issues could arise in other states over how to count mail or provisional ballots. Slow counting or certification. Delays can create a perception of bias even when none exists. In 2020, election officials warned that reliable results could take days. The same is true this year. One source of delay are laws in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that bar workers from processing ballots received before Election Day. Workers sort mail-in ballots in San Jose, California. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Around the country, 35 election officials in battleground states have refused to certify results since 2020, even though they don't have the discretion to do that. On certification, these officials are supposed to be the scorekeepers, while courts are the referees. What about Georgia? Yesterday, its Supreme Court blocked the State Election Board, which has a new Trump-aligned majority, from ordering counties to tally ballots by hand to ensure a match with machine totals — a task that takes time and can create discrepancies. The court also stopped the board from allowing local officials to make any "reasonable inquiry" about the accuracy of the count. The ruling curbs uncertainty in Georgia's counting and certification process. One worst-case scenario is a presidential contest that comes down to a single state that can be disputed. "I don't think our political system can handle that now as it did with Bush v. Gore in 2000," Persily said. In the end, he views that election as a success. Al Gore conceded. Violence did not erupt. However difficult it was for the losing side, voters accepted the Supreme Court ruling that determined the result. The country moved on to the next election. "This time, the Supreme Court won't have a reservoir of good will to draw on," Persily says. "People will retreat into their partisan camps. And I could imagine either candidate refusing to concede." For more U.S. officials are worried about potential violence against election workers, and Russia is considering ways to stoke protests and violence over the results. Republicans have spent millions to persuade their voters to cast ballots early. Early voting data from Arizona and Nevada suggests it's working. Trump repeated dire claims about the stakes if he loses. "They say we may never have an election again in this country," he told Latino voters in Florida. THE LATEST NEWS Trump Campaign John Kelly in 2018. Doug Mills/The New York Times John Kelly, Trump's longest-serving chief of staff, told The Times that Trump meets the definition of a fascist. "He certainly prefers the dictator approach to government," Kelly said. JD Vance said Trump would end Temporary Protected Status, a program that lets hundreds of thousands of immigrants live and work in the U.S. legally. Trump's campaign canceled an event with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., citing scheduling. Trump has recently backed out of several other media appearances. As president, Trump said "only suckers went to Vietnam," shunned disfigured veterans and mused that he wanted "the kind of generals that Hitler had," The Atlantic reports. A Trump spokesman denied the reporting. Harris Campaign Harris, in an NBC interview, declined to make concessions on abortion to win over Republicans and wouldn't say whether she'd pardon Trump if he were convicted of a federal crime. Here are more takeaways. Tim Walz, campaigning with Barack Obama in Wisconsin, accused Trump of "using people's livelihoods as a political prop" when he served food at a McDonald's. "We got to lock him up," President Biden said of Trump, before quickly backtracking and saying he meant "politically lock him up. Lock him out." Bill Gates, who usually avoids politics, gave about $50 million to a Harris-aligned group. "I have a long history of working with leaders across the political spectrum, but this election is different," he told The Times, without endorsing Harris. More on Politics On TikTok. The New York Times Videos about the race are getting hundreds of millions of views on TikTok. See what the election looks like there. The Times profiled Mark Robinson, the Republican nominee for North Carolina governor who was linked to offensive remarks on a porn website. He hung up on reporters after they asked about the comments. Rudy Giuliani must turn over cash, his New York condo and his vintage Mercedes-Benz to two Georgia election workers he defamed during the 2020 election, a judge ruled. A German princess hosted Justice Samuel Alito at her palace last year. Here's how their friendship began. Business and Economy The C.D.C. linked an E. coli outbreak to McDonald's Quarter Pounder hamburgers. One person has died and 49 people have gotten sick. The global economy has largely beaten inflation, the International Monetary Fund reported. U.S. gas prices are near $3 a gallon in most states, the cheapest since February. Middle East Hamas's military ranks are depleted and its leaders are dead. But the group's guerrilla tactics have allowed it to remain a force. The Israeli military said it had killed Hezbollah's likely new leader in an airstrike earlier this month. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, during a trip to Israel, urged the government there to end the war in Gaza. U.S. prosecutors charged a member of Iran's Revolutionary Guards with trying to assassinate a human-rights activist in Brooklyn. Other Big Stories Sewell Setzer III, 14.  A Florida teenager died by suicide after growing attached to an A.I. chatbot. His mother wants to hold the company behind the bot responsible for his death. Read his story. Federal prosecutors charged Michael Jeffries, a former C.E.O. of Abercrombie & Fitch, with running an international sex-trafficking ring. In most of the states with abortion bans, more women are getting abortions since Roe v. Wade was overturned. (They're traveling or ordering pills by mail.) China and India agreed to ease hostilities along their border, where clashes in 2020 left dozens of troops dead. The vice president and the president of the Philippines are feuding, and the vice president has talked about beheading her boss. Opinions There's a strong chance that either Trump or Harris will sweep most of the battleground states, even if polls don't show it, Nate Silver writes. Here are columns by Bret Stephens on if Democrats lose and Thomas Edsall on Trump's agenda. The Times Sale starts now: Our best rate for readers of The Morning. Save now with our best offer on unlimited news and analysis as part of the complete Times experience: $1/week for your first year. MORNING READS Koshihikari rice. Noriko Hayashi for The New York Times Crops: Scientists are on a quest to save the "king" of Japanese rice — Koshihikari — from rising temperatures. Ask Well: Are organic foods really more nutritious? Where to eat: See a list of the 17 best bagels in New York City right now. Lives Lived: Over several decades at Madison Square Garden, beginning in 1959, the Knicks superfan Stan Asofsky befriended players and heckled refs. He died at 87. SPORTS N.B.A.: LeBron and Bronny James became the first father and son to appear together in an regular-season game. Their Lakers beat the Timberwolves, 110-103. W.N.B.A.: The decisive Game 5 averaged 2.15 million viewers, the highest-rated Finals game in 25 years. ARTS AND IDEAS Paloma Proudfoot's "Unfinished painting" (2024). © Paloma Proudfoot, courtesy of the artist and the Approach, London. Photo: Michal Brzezinski Contemporary art seems to be fascinated with female hands, including severed ones. They can be a way of exploring women's power. "I'm interested in the intention of their movements — the anguish, the strength and the seduction," the Peruvian artist Wynnie Mynerva said. More on culture On a recent evening in New York City, the literary establishment celebrated a new erotica magazine published by Feeld, a kink-friendly dating app. Armando Iannucci, the mastermind of "Veep," has adapted "Dr. Strangelove" for the theater. He says laughing at nuclear disaster couldn't be more timely. Late night joked about Elon Musk. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Julia Gartland for The New York Times Mix white beans and greens with Parmesan. Buy a gift for a co-worker. Decorate for the holidays. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was haircut. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018