The Morning: Is Trump an isolationist?

Plus, Israeli strikes, Aleksei Navalny's prison diary and the New York Liberty's championship win.

View in browser|nytimes.com October 21, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering foreign policy in a second Trump term — as well as Israeli strikes, Aleksei Navalny's prison diary and the New York Liberty's championship win. The United Nations General Assembly. Mike Segar/Reuters THE STAKES The Trump doctrines Donald Trump is often described as an isolationist, and there is a lot of truth in that label. Trump embraces the slogan "America First." He criticizes military aid for Ukraine. He can be withering about America's closest allies. But Trump is not an across-the-board isolationist. When he was president, he engaged with the world in ways that still shape U.S. policy. Rather than ignoring China, he adopted a more confrontational approach than any president in 50 years. In the Middle East, he imposed "maximum pressure" sanctions on Iran and ordered the assassination of a top general. He also fired missiles at Syria after it used chemical weapons against its own people. A pure isolationist wouldn't have taken those steps. The Morning has been publishing a series called The Stakes, focused on the policy positions of the presidential candidates. Today, I'll look at Trump's foreign policy by asking two questions: How much of an isolationist is he? And does he deserve credit — as he often argues — for the lack of major wars when he was president? 1. An isolationist? I find it helpful to think about Trump's foreign policy views on a spectrum from most isolationist to most interventionist: Ukraine is on the isolationist end. Trump has called for cutting U.S. military aid, which could force Ukraine into an unfavorable peace deal. To many other politicians from both parties, this possibility is deeply alarming: It could reward Vladimir Putin's invasion, by enabling Russia to annex Ukrainian territory, and encourage future wars. Trump, however, believes that Americans shouldn't care much about what happens in many faraway places. His approach to U.S. allies like Japan and Western European countries also leans isolationist — but with nuance. While president, he pressured these allies to increase military spending, and some did so. You can consider that approach isolationist because it allows the U.S. to be less engaged. But it also strengthens the international alliance that the U.S. leads. Interventionists also want those countries to spend more. Donald Trump and China's president, Xi Jinping, in 2019.  Erin Schaff/The New York Times China may be the most confusing part of Trump's worldview. On economic policy, he made the U.S. approach more aggressive, and President Biden has maintained that stance. But on national security and human rights, Trump leans isolationist. He has suggested that China can do what it wants about Hong Kong, and he has criticized Taiwan for not paying more to the U.S. Since leaving office, he has reversed his position on TikTok and now seems fine with Chinese ownership of one of the biggest social media platforms in the U.S. This pattern may explain why Chinese officials seem to be rooting for a Trump victory. The Middle East, especially Iran, is the area where Trump is least isolationist — and Iran's leaders are clearly rooting against Trump. "Iran is the big exception in his largely anti-interventionist foreign policy," Jonathan Swan, a Times reporter who covers Trump's campaign, told me, "and he feels even more strongly about Iran now than he did while in office." If Trump wins, he may impose new sanctions or even attack Iran's nuclear program, Jonathan said. Trump has also shown little concern about Gaza or the Palestinians suffering there, my colleague Maggie Haberman notes. One theme that unites all of this is that Trump prefers dealing with other countries one on one rather than through multilateral trade deals or international groups like NATO. "He thinks it dilutes American leverage to be negotiating within such a large group," Jonathan said. "He views all international institutions as scams designed to siphon from the American Treasury." 2. The 'no wars' president? And how should you think about Trump's claim that he avoids war? "I don't have wars," he has said. Unlike many of his statements, this one has a basis in reality. During his presidency, Trump didn't involve the U.S. in new conflicts, and no other country started a major war. During Biden's presidency, by contrast, Russia invaded Ukraine, and Hamas attacked Israel. Many Democrats argue that this pattern is a coincidence. Trump's supporters argue that it stems from his combination of strength and unpredictability. "Trump makes our enemies fear escalation, which causes them to back down," Marc Thiessen, a conservative Washington Post columnist, wrote. Trump himself told The Wall Street Journal that other countries fear him as "crazy" (preceding that word with an adjective that family newspapers try to avoid). There may well be some truth to this idea. Unpredictability has advantages. But it also has disadvantages. And Trump's foreign policy wasn't merely unpredictable; it was often chaotic. His own aides sometimes didn't know what he wanted. Trump also put his personal interests, or those of people close to him, above any ideological beliefs. He allowed his businesses to accept payments from foreign governments. On the TikTok question, he reversed his position apparently after being lobbied by an investor in the company who is also a Republican campaign donor. This self-interest is one reason that former Trump aides — including two defense secretaries and one national security adviser — have called him dangerously unfit to be commander in chief. "No one has ever been as dangerous to this country as Donald Trump," Gen. Mark Milley, who ran the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Trump, told Bob Woodward. If Trump takes office again, U.S. foreign policy is likely to be much more uncertain than if Kamala Harris wins. The Stakes A Morning newsletter series on how Harris and Trump view some of the biggest issues facing the country. Presidential power Taxes Immigration Abortion Climate THE LATEST NEWS 2024 Election At a McDonald's in Pennsylvania. Doug Mills/The New York Times In a campaign stunt, Trump served fries in a McDonald's while wearing a shirt with gold cuff links. He has claimed without evidence that Harris never worked there (her campaign and an old family friend say she did). Trump has survived more scandals than any major party presidential candidate, much less president, Peter Baker writes. People are pleading with Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, to end her bid so she doesn't split Democratic votes. She won't. Middle East In Beirut, Lebanon. EPA, via Shutterstock Israel struck branches of a bank associated with Hezbollah across Lebanon. Israel says that a video of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader, shows he died as a fugitive. His supporters say the video shows him as a fighter, The Washington Post reports. A young man whose death in a fire after a hospital strike in Gaza was captured on video has become a symbol of the war's toll on civilians. Read about him. More International News In Kano, Nigeria.  Yagazie Emezi for The New York Times As Africa experiences a baby boom, a TV show in Nigeria has people asking: How many children is too many? Tropical Storm Oscar reached Cuba, bringing heavy rain and the threat of storm surges there and in the Bahamas. Fans waited hours to place tributes to Liam Payne at a vigil in London. Other Big Stories Yulia Navalnaya Caroline Tompkins for The New York Times Aleksei Navalny's widow published his prison diaries, which she helped compile into a posthumous memoir. Read a review. The state of Georgia is investigating a dock collapse that killed seven people at a festival for descendants of enslaved people. John Kinsel Sr., one of the last surviving Navajo Code Talkers, a group of Marines who encrypted World War II messages using the Navajo language, died at 107. Opinions College officials must condemn support on campus for Hamas and its violence, Erwin Chemerinsky writes. Harris should rely on diplomacy to create her own "America first" foreign policy, one that would press Ukraine to negotiate and acknowledge Taiwan is part of China while increasing aid to the island, Stephen Wertheim argues. Gail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss Election Day. Here are columns by David French on American divisions and Nicholas Kristof on how to end the war in Gaza. Now you can subscribe to New York Times podcasts. Full access to our shows on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, including past episodes, is now included in an All Access or Audio subscription. Subscribe now. MORNING READS Tending to a Deadpool mask. Jordan Macy for The New York Times Cosplay: At Comic Con, emergency superhero tailors are on standby, armed with glue guns and Popsicle sticks. Print powerhouse: Costco's magazine is now the third largest in America. Ask Vanessa: "Why are hospital gowns so ugly?" Metropolitan Diary: Subway lasagna. Lives Lived: Sister Sally Butler was a nun, social worker and activist who blew the whistle on the sexual abuse of children in the parish where she once worked in Brooklyn. She died at 93. SPORTS A win for the Liberty. Michelle V. Agins/The New York Times W.N.B.A.: The New York Liberty are champions for the first time after a 67-62 overtime win in Game 5 of the Finals. Read a recap. N.F.L.: A blowout loss to the Steelers put the New York Jets deeper into disarray. It was a gritty Sunday of football. College football: Vanderbilt is ranked in the AP Top 25 poll, its first appearance since 2012. (See the full rankings.) ARTS AND IDEAS A Steelers watch party in Dublin. Paulo Nunes dos Santos for The New York Times American football is rarely played in Ireland. The N.F.L. has played just one game there, in the 1997 preseason. Yet fantasy football and YouTube clips have helped make the sport more popular. Read about how the league is building its fan base. More on culture Three generations on, grandchildren of Holocaust survivors are creating art that makes new meaning from ancestral trauma. Alec Baldwin returned to "Saturday Night Live" for the first time since in involuntary manslaughter case against him was dismissed. He played the Fox anchor Bret Baier. Andrew Garfield went on the YouTube show "Chicken Shop Date." His much-anticipated appearance didn't disappoint, The Cut writes. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Yossy Arefi for The New York Times Add a toasty brown-butter vinaigrette to this simple lentil salad. Shop for a good loafer. Carry a better tote bag. Make your own waffles. Buy a gift for a pickleball player. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was vindictive. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018