The Morning: Who the swing voters are

Plus, Ukraine's cabinet, a brain quiz and contemporary dance.

View in browser|nytimes.com September 4, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. Today, we offer a portrait of swing voters — and are also covering Ukraine's cabinet, a brain quiz and contemporary dance. In New Hampshire. Sophie Park for The New York Times The uncommitted 18 percent About 18 percent of American voters have not made up their minds between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, recent polls suggest. Some members of this 18 percent say they lean toward one of the two candidates without having a firm preference. Others say they don't lean toward either. Yet history suggests that many of these Americans will vote — and will ultimately support the Democratic or Republican nominee. Once they do, they will probably decide the presidential election. In today's newsletter, I'll offer a portrait of the country's uncommitted voters. Young moderates of color A major problem for President Biden's re-election campaign was his weakness among young voters and voters of colors. A Democratic candidate typically needs to win these groups in a landslide, and Biden wasn't on pace to do so. Harris is faring much better, which is why the race seems virtually tied. (Nate Silver's forecast model calls Trump a slight favorite because Trump is stronger in swing states than he is nationwide, while The Economist's model considers Harris's national lead large enough to make her a slight favorite.) Still, even with Harris's progress among younger voters and those who are Asian, Black, Hispanic or Native American, many remain undecided. As a group, the uncommitted 18 percent of the electorate is less white and younger than decided voters, New York Times/Siena College polling shows: Source: New York Times/Siena College polls, Aug. 2024 If you assume that most swing voters are disaffected liberals because of their youth and diversity, however, you will be wrong. For one thing, uncommitted voters are slightly more likely to be male than decided voters are. Most also do not have a four-year college degree, and working-class voters tend to be more socially conservative. Source: New York Times/Siena College polls, Aug. 2024 Overall, swing voters are more likely to identify as conservative than liberal, a potential advantage for Trump. Most swing voters, not surprisingly, consider themselves moderates, separate polling by YouGov has found. By The New York Times | Source: Economist/YouGov nationwide polls, Aug. 2024 The top issues As for the issues that matter most to swing voters, pocketbook economics is No. 1 by far. Loyal supporters of Harris or Trump, by comparison, name issues like abortion, climate change, civil rights or immigration more often than undecided voters do: By The New York Times | Source: Economist/YouGov nationwide polls, Aug. 2024 This year's election is so close that those other issues might still sway enough voters to matter. That's why the Harris campaign emphasizes both the Republican Party's unpopular abortion position and the continued flip-flopping from Trump about his own views. It's also why the Trump campaign blames Harris for the surge in illegal immigration during the Biden administration. But neither abortion nor immigration matters to as many swing voters as economic issues do. The knowledge gap Poll results point to another key point about uncommitted voters: They are more eager to hear about Harris and her plans than about Trump and his. Trump has spent nearly a decade as the Republican Party's leader, and even longer as a celebrity. Most Americans feel they know who he is. Many adore him. Many others despise him. Those in the middle generally don't like Trump but are open to voting for him. Harris is not as well known. As a result, much of the campaign's final two months will revolve around trying to define her, positively or negatively. Two recent experiments by Democratic-leaning researchers, for example, found that Harris's ads were better at swaying voters when they focused on her rather than Trump. "Voters still have a lot to learn about Vice President Harris and are looking for a hopeful vision of the future, not just more attacks on a well-known figure," concluded Blueprint, a firm that surveyed thousands of voters' views about six hypothetical ads for Harris. Likewise, two political scientists — David Broockman of the University of California, Berkeley, and Josh Kalla of Yale — found that the most effective messages for Harris portrayed her as a typical Democrat who would protect Social Security and Medicare, expand abortion access, reduce the cost of living and so on. "Attacking Trump simply isn't as effective for Democrats as praising Harris," Broockman and Kalla wrote. Trump's campaign has come to a similar conclusion, albeit from the opposite perspective. "This is a moment in the message arc of us seeking to define her," one Trump adviser told The Washington Post. Trump is "a defined candidate," the adviser said. I know that some readers will be surprised to hear that 18 percent of voters still haven't decided between Harris and Trump, given their stark differences. But remember that many Americans don't follow politics as closely as you may. This year's campaign has also been an unusual one, in which one party picked a nominee who didn't spend many months running in primaries and talking with voters. Above all, swing voters seem to want to know more about that nominee. Related: Times Opinion imagines that it's Nov. 6, the morning after Election Day, and Ross Douthat explains how Harris won, while David Brooks explains how Trump won. More on the election Harris's campaign, in a sign of financial strength, is giving around $25 million to help elect Democrats to Congress and other down-ballot offices. Trump commuted a man's life sentence in 2021. This past spring, the man was convicted of assaulting his wife, becoming the latest Trump clemency beneficiary to get in legal trouble again. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s name will remain on the ballot in Michigan even though Kennedy wants it removed, a judge ruled. Trump campaign workers in Florida called the police last week, thinking their offices were bugged. The devices they found appear to have been part of a prank. Stephen Colbert analyzed (and joked about) Harris's lead in the polls. THE LATEST NEWS War in Ukraine In Poltava, Ukraine. David Guttenfelder for The New York Times Russia pounded Ukraine with a second day of deadly strikes. Yesterday, missiles struck a military academy and a hospital in eastern Ukraine. More than 50 people were killed. Volodymyr Zelensky is planning a major cabinet shake-up. Ukraine's foreign minister and other senior officials have offered to resign. Russia's ballistic missiles, which can travel at supersonic speeds, give Ukrainians little time to find shelter. Zelensky asked Western allies to send stronger defense systems. Politics Linda Sun and her husband, Chris Hu. Jefferson Siegel for The New York Times Federal prosecutors accused Linda Sun, a former aide to Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York, of acting illegally to help China's government in exchange for payments and other benefits. Tim Sheehy, the Republican Senate nominee in Montana, repeated racist stereotypes about Native Americans, calling them "drunk at 8 a.m." at a private fund-raiser last year. In a memoir, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson writes about her enslaved ancestors, her daughter's autism and working at the Supreme Court. Read The Times's review. In American elections, a candidate runs unopposed in half of all races for partisan offices, an analysis found. Republicans win most of those uncontested seats. Israel-Hamas War U.S. prosecutors charged Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, and other senior Hamas officials with planning and carrying out years of terrorist attacks in Israel, including the Oct. 7 massacre. The campaign to administer polio vaccines to children in Gaza is going well, officials say. Israel and Hamas have adhered to a pause in fighting to allow the drive to succeed. More International News U.S. and Iraqi commandos killed at least 14 Islamic State fighters in Iraq last week, a sign of the terrorist group's resurgence. Seven American troops were wounded. At least 129 people died during an attempted jailbreak at the largest prison in the Democratic Republic of Congo. A boat carrying migrants capsized as it tried to cross the English Channel from France to Britain. At least 12 people died. An Olympic runner from Uganda was set on fire by her boyfriend, The Guardian reports. Starlink, the satellite-internet service controlled by Elon Musk, reversed course and said it would comply with Brazilian government orders to block X in the country. Other Big Stories A stock market tumble that began in the U.S. continued across Asia and Europe. The sell-off predominantly affected technology and semiconductor stocks. "This was a random act of violence": A 30-year-old man in Chicago was charged with murder in the deaths of four passengers who were shot as they slept on a train. An 11-year-old is facing murder charges after he confessed to shooting an 82-year-old relative, once a mayor of a small Louisiana city, and the man's adult daughter. Opinions How many women are in prison for killing their abusers? Rachel Louise Snyder writes about an effort to find out. Tech companies have long fought for our attention. They're going further by building chatbots that can simulate relationships, Yuval Noah Harari writes. Here are columns by Thomas Friedman and Bret Stephens on Benjamin Netanyahu. Subscribe Today The Morning highlights a small portion of the journalism that The New York Times offers. To access all of it, become a subscriber with this introductory offer. MORNING READS Arrangements of dyed chrysanthemums. Photograph by Florent Tanet. Set design by Nicholas William White Floral glow-up: The chrysanthemum, a staple of grocery store bouquets, is back in high fashion. Quiz: Do you have healthy brain habits? Answer these 12 questions. Work Friend: "Help! I'm 'older' and on the job hunt." Health: Sitting all day can cause dead butt syndrome. The name might sound silly, but the condition can lead to chronic pain. Sunken treasure: New photos from the Titanic wreck show a long-lost statue. Lives Lived: James Darren played Moondoggie, a California surfer, in the hit 1959 movie "Gidget." He went on to reprise the role, appear in the 1961 World War II drama "The Guns of Navarone" and have a long career in both prime-time television and music. He died at 88. SPORTS U.S. Open: The American players Frances Tiafoe and Taylor Fritz will face each other in the men's singles semifinals. No American man has won the tournament since Andy Roddick in 2003. N.H.L.: The Edmonton Oilers signed superstar Leon Draisaitl to an eight-year contract extension worth $112 million, making the 28-year-old the highest-paid player in hockey. W.N.B.A.: Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever clinched a playoff spot last night, the franchise's first postseason appearance in seven years. ARTS AND IDEAS Camille Brown leading a routine. Elliott Jerome Brown Jr. for The New York Times Ayodele Casel, LaTasha Barnes and Camille Brown are at the cutting edge of contemporary dance. In motion, though, they evoke figures from the Harlem Renaissance a century ago. See videos of the three women who are celebrating — and remixing — Black dance. More on culture Meet the songwriter behind Sabrina Carpenter's hits (and more songs from pop's next generation). Jack Robbins — son of Tim Robbins and Susan Sarandon — pokes fun at himself, and his fellow nepo babies, in a series of comedy videos. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Julia Gartland for The New York Times Grill eggplant with lentils and tahini. Pack away your summer clothes. Commute safely with a bike light. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was vibrant. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018