The Morning: The week after the debate

Plus, the French election, a Chinese rocket and ghosting.

View in browser|nytimes.com July 1, 2024 By David Leonhardt and Ian Prasad Philbrick Good morning. We're covering the week after the debate — as well as the French election, a Chinese rocket and ghosting. The debate stage last week. Kenny Holston/The New York Times America's image Whatever its ultimate effect on the campaign, the first presidential debate of 2024 certainly did not cast the United States in a favorable light. It featured two elderly men — one 81, one 78 — who insulted each other and who most Americans wished were not the two major-party candidates for president. One candidate told frequent lies and portrayed the country in apocalyptic terms. The other struggled at times to describe his own policies or complete his sentences. The image of the nation as some combination of unhinged and doddering was especially striking at a time when the U.S. is supposed to be leading the fight against a rising alliance of autocracies that includes China, Russia and Iran. "I am worried about the image projected to the outside world," Sergey Radchenko, a historian at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, wrote on social media. "It is not an image of leadership. It is an image of terminal decline." Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland's foreign minister, seemingly compared President Biden's performance to Marcus Aurelius' failure to find a competent successor in ancient Rome, which hastened the empire's decline. "It's important to manage one's ride into the sunset," Sikorski tweeted. Russian officials — whose recent online behavior suggests that they are rooting for Donald Trump — portrayed the debate as a sign of American weakness and disarray. The result "is good for us," Dmitri Novikov, a Russian lawmaker, said on state television. "Destabilization inside an adversary is always a good thing." Where does the campaign go from here? That's the subject of today's newsletter. Solid vs. shaky Most Republicans are committed to Trump, even as he continues to tell lies and reject core principles of democracy. The situation with Democrats and Biden is obviously more uncertain. The Biden campaign and its allies have tried to describe the night as just another bad debate performance (as my colleague Michael Shear explains), not so different from weak showings by Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan. But it was different. Biden seemed incapable of accomplishing basic political tasks, such as explaining what he had done in his first term, what he wanted to do in a second term and how his opponent's policies could harm the country. Since the debate, Biden has looked more competent in public appearances. But his struggles during the debate will be hard to forget. Yes, he may sometimes be as sharp as ever. And, yes, he has accomplished a great deal during his first term. Nonetheless, he also sometimes appears to be a typical 81-year-old whose acuity is uneven and whose fitness for the presidency is questionable. In a CBS News poll conducted after the debate, only 27 percent of registered voters said that they thought Biden had the mental and cognitive health to serve as president. By comparison, 50 percent of voters said Trump did. Biden and his aides insist he will not drop out. But the race is clearly more volatile than before the debate. We encourage you to watch three different areas in coming days to evaluate Biden's position. 1. Polls Biden at a campaign event in Raleigh, N.C., the day after the debate. Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times Several major pollsters are likely to release post-debate polls in coming days, and they will shape political discussions this week. Before the debate, Trump had a very small lead in national polls and a slightly larger lead in most swing states. If the polls remain similar after the debate, Biden's aides will be able to argue that it didn't alter the race's dynamics. The aides probably won't put it this way, but it would suggest that swing voters already understood Biden's age was a problem before the debate. If Biden lost meaningful ground, however, the political atmosphere could change quickly. More Democrats who now support Biden — or who at least haven't called on him to drop him out — could begin to oppose him publicly. (You can follow the polls this week through The Times's polling averages.) 2. Donors A key group to watch will be Democratic donors. Without the money that Biden's campaign expected to raise in coming months, it may struggle to run enough advertisements to frame the election as it hoped — as a choice between a decent man who cares about Americans and a selfish man who cares only about himself. During and just after the debate, many donors felt panic, and many still do. But Biden's campaign has kept the criticism from spiraling over the past few days, as this Times story documented. When polls come out this week, it will be worth watching the reaction of major Democratic donors, including those who speak to the media anonymously. They are likely to react more quickly, and more candidly, than senior Democratic politicians. 3. Democratic leaders Ultimately, the response of Democratic politicians will probably be decisive. So far, top Democrats, including Barack Obama, Bill and Hillary Clinton, congressional leaders and governors, have publicly backed Biden. In private, some have been more alarmed. Top House Democrats — including Hakeem Jeffries, the party leader, as well as Nancy Pelosi and James Clyburn — have questioned his viability in private, according to NBC News. If Democrats do mount a serious effort to persuade Biden to step aside, politicians who have worked with him for years are likely to be the messengers of doom. The chances that Biden quits the race seem small this morning — significantly smaller than they did during the debate on Thursday night. But the situation is less settled than Biden's aides have tried to suggest. And the next several days will matter much more than early July usually does in a presidential campaign. More on the campaign Biden's family is urging him to stay in the race. His son Hunter has been vocal about it, Katie Rogers and Peter Baker report. Some members of his clan privately expressed exasperation at how his staff prepared him for the debate. Top Democrats followed a concerted effort by Biden and his team to dismiss concerns about his candidacy. THE LATEST NEWS French Election Emmanuel Macron and his wife, Brigitte. Pool photo by Yara Nardi President Emmanuel Macron's snap election in France appears to have backfired: The far-right party was well ahead in the first round of voting. If a new majority of lawmakers opposed to Macron wins, he will be forced to appoint a political adversary as prime minister. That could be Jordan Bardella, a 28-year-old who has become the new face of France's far right. France will return to the polls on July 7 for a second round of voting. The turnout was unusually high. Read more takeaways. More International News Thousands of soldiers are expected to die this summer in the war in Ukraine. But neither Moscow or Kyiv are likely to make significant gains, The Wall Street Journal reports. Many Iranians said they didn't vote in the first round of the country's presidential election because all the candidates had been vetted by the government. Myanmar's currency is plunging and inflation is soaring. The ruling junta has arrested shop owners for raising wages. A Chinese commercial rocket accidentally launched during a test. It crashed into a nearby mountain and exploded, the company said. Weather Hurricane Beryl is moving west through the Atlantic as a Category 3 storm. Caribbean islands are bracing for impact later today. Tropical Storm Chris made landfall in eastern Mexico. It's expected to dissipate soon. Boeing Boeing agreed to buy a longtime supplier. It's an attempt to manage quality problems. The Justice Department is said to be seeking a guilty plea from Boeing to avoid a trial over two fatal 737 Max crashes. Other Big Stories A vigil for the 13-year-old boy. Adrianna Newell for The New York Times People in Utica, N.Y., are grieving for a 13-year-old boy who was shot and killed by a police officer. Recent court rulings have changed how institutions — including the government and universities — assess disadvantage. Many people now have to write essays explaining how they faced obstacles in life, which is changing their self-conception, The Washington Post reports. Opinions There aren't enough pediatricians in the United States. Medical students need a financial incentive to join the practice, Aaron Carroll writes. Gail Collins and Bret Stephens ask: Will one bad debate night for Biden mean one bad Election Day? Here are columns by David French on emergency abortion in Idaho and David Brooks, who interviewed Steve Bannon. The Games Sale. Offer won't last. Games for relaxation. Games for concentration. We have them all. For a limited time, save 50% on your first year of a New York Times Games subscription and enjoy new puzzles every day. MORNING READS A beach home in Stone Harbor, N.J. Michelle Gustafson for The New York Times Flying high: It's fitting that a Supreme Court flag controversy arose in New Jersey, because down the shore, there are flags for everything. Los Angeles: Street vendors can now operate legally on Hollywood Boulevard. Making a living remains a challenge. Cool down, glow up: As climate change brings hotter summers, manufacturers are positioning air-conditioners as lifestyle accessories. Metropolitan Diary: Rock, paper, scissors, tacos. Lives Lived: Soma Golden Behr, a longtime senior editor at The New York Times, was a centrifuge of story ideas — they flew out of her in all directions. Her journalistic passions were poverty, race and class, which led to reporting that won Pulitzer Prizes. She died at 84. SPORTS Simone Biles Matt Krohn/USA Today Sports, via Reuters Olympics: Simone Biles will headline the U.S. women's Olympic gymnastics team in Paris after comfortably winning the trials. She'll be joined by three other repeat Olympians, plus a 16-year-old rookie. Soccer: Mexico was eliminated from the Copa América with a 0-0 draw against Ecuador. The U.S. men's national team will try to avoid the same fate against Uruguay tonight. N.B.A.: The Los Angeles Clippers plan to re-sign their star guard James Harden, the splashiest news to come on the first night of the league's free agency period. Fit check: 24 rookies shared their draft day outfits. ARTS AND IDEAS Alexis Jamet Some experts say ghosting — a complete cutoff in communication, without explanation — can be harder to deal with than explicit rejection. In the fast-paced world of modern dating, is it ever OK to ghost someone? Elizabeth Earnshaw, a therapist, says it's permissible in some cases. She offers some questions to ask yourself: Am I thinking about ghosting this person simply because I want to avoid an unpleasant conversation? If the answer is yes, it is kinder to offer a goodbye and even a brief explanation. Read more about ways to get around ghosting, and how to handle it when it happens to you. More on culture "The Boyfriend" Netflix The producers of "The Boyfriend," Japan's first same-sex dating reality series, hope that the show will encourage broader acceptance of the nation's L.G.B.T.Q. community. Explicit books for women are all over TikTok and Instagram feeds. The Cut has a guide. At the Olympics, a small Black-owned fashion label — Actively Black — is dressing Team Nigeria. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Christopher Testani for The New York Times Try a light and refreshing potato salad, an antithesis of the usual mayonnaise-based recipes. Celebrate July 4 on these beaches. Prepare for a roadside emergency with this gear. Drink enough water (with some nudges). Protect yourself from the sun with UV-blocking clothing. Toast the newly betrothed with a great engagement gift. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was rainbow. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018