The Morning: The race for Congress

Plus, the Venezuelan election, Israel and "Deadpool & Wolverine."

View in browser|nytimes.com July 29, 2024 By German Lopez Good morning. We're covering Kamala Harris's impact on congressional races — the Venezuelan election, Israel and "Deadpool & Wolverine." Ahead of a speech by Kamala Harris in Houston.  Erin Schaff/The New York Times The race for Congress With President Biden out of the 2024 race, Democrats aren't just hoping to win the presidency. They also believe they have a better chance to take the House of Representatives and keep the Senate. Biden was a drag on the ticket. He ran behind congressional Democrats in polls. He could have cost his party otherwise winnable House and Senate races by causing Democratic-leaning voters to stay home. "Those voters were saying they really did want to vote for a Democrat, but they were super uninspired by Biden," said Amy Walter, who tracks congressional races at The Cook Political Report. "And so they might not have shown up." Much of what Kamala Harris and Donald Trump would do as president depends on which party controls Congress. The race for the House is very close. The race for the Senate favors Republicans, but if Democrats forestall a wipeout, they could at least limit the G.O.P.'s agenda. Today's newsletter will break down the state of these consequential races. The House House Republicans have an advantage in this year's elections, but it is very small. According to The Cook Political Report, Republicans are favored in 210 seats. Democrats are favored in 203. A party needs 218 to control the House. Source: Cook Political Report | credit: By The New York Times Among the 22 House seats considered tossups, Democrats and Republicans each currently control half. Republicans face a relatively easier task: They have to keep eight of their 11 tossup seats, without losing districts in which they're favored, to win the House. These 22 races will likely be very close, within as little as one or two percentage points. The difference between Mike Johnson and Hakeem Jeffries as speaker could come down to a few thousand voters across a few congressional districts. The size of the majority matters, too. Consider the current House. Republicans control it, but they need almost every one of their 220 members to do anything. If a few backbenchers disagree with the rest of the party on a bill or a decision, they can effectively veto it. That has led to weeks of votes just to decide on a speaker — typically a routine issue — and to the brink of a government shutdown. Such chaos could continue if Republicans won without expanding their majority in the chamber. The Senate For Democrats, the Senate is daunting. It is currently divided 51 to 49 in their favor. But one of those 51 seats — West Virginia's — will almost certainly flip Republican, because Senator Joe Manchin is not running for re-election and the state is deep red. That leaves Democrats with a 50-50 Senate to start. (In an even-split scenario, control of the White House matters more; the vice president breaks tie votes.) Source: Cook Political Report | credit: By The New York Times Then, the only tossups are seats that Democrats currently control: Michigan, Montana, Ohio and Nevada. Republicans have to flip only one of these seats to take the chamber. That seems very doable. Ohio and Montana, in particular, have consistently voted Republican in statewide and federal races since the current Democratic incumbents last won in 2018. Again, though, margins matter. In his first year in the White House, Biden hoped to pass $2.2 trillion in new spending through the Build Back Better bill. But because Democrats had a thin Senate majority, two moderates — Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona — were able to force a smaller bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, that spends a fraction of what Biden wanted. Similarly, three moderate Senate Republicans blocked Trump's attempt to repeal Obamacare in 2017. If he won, would Trump be able to impose his most severe immigration restrictions? Or deeper tax cuts for corporations and the rich? Could he cut programs like Medicaid and food stamps? The answer may hinge on whether Republicans win one Senate seat or five. What comes next We won't know the effect of replacing Biden on the ticket for at least weeks, until we get more polling. But many congressional races are so close that the slightest electoral shift could flip them. Even if Harris loses in November, she could limit how much Trump can get done in a second term by boosting House and Senate seats more than Biden would have. More on 2024 The New York Times Several men are vying to be Harris's running mate. Some of them, like her, served as state attorneys general. The Harris campaign says it has raised $200 million in about a week — more than Biden did in the first three months of the year. Texts obtained by The Times revealed that Trump's would-be assassin aroused police suspicion more than 90 minutes before the shooting, earlier than was previously known. A new fault line: A majority of men under 30 support Trump and Republican control of Congress, while young women favor the Democrats, The Wall Street Journal reports. Liberal social media creators are seeing their posts being shared widely as the Harris campaign resonates online. The announcement of Harris's candidacy excited Democrats. Now she faces a harder task: maintaining that enthusiasm, Kellen Browning and Maggie Astor write. THE LATEST NEWS Venezuela Election In Venezuela.  Adriana Loureiro Fernandez for The New York Times Venezuela's government-controlled election authority declared the nation's authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro, the winner of the presidential election. Officials at some voting centers refused to release paper tallies of the electronic vote count, and there were reports of fraud and voter intimidation. An opposition leader called the results impossible and Antony Blinken said the U.S. had serious concerns. The outcome could mean protests and a new period of political unrest. Read more takeaways. More International News The aftermath of a strike in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.  Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York Times Diplomats are trying to prevent an escalation in fighting along the Israel-Lebanon border. After an attack on an Israel-controlled area this weekend, stores were closed and weddings were postponed. Japan initially welcomed inflation as a way to shake its sluggish economy. But there are signs that things are not going to plan. People across Germany are using plug-in solar panels on their balconies, prompted by low prices and looser regulations. Politics Biden is expected today to propose a Supreme Court overhaul that includes term limits. His effort would need to pass the Republican-controlled House, a significant hurdle. Mayor Eric Adams blocked elements of a law that would have banned solitary confinement in New York City jails a day before it took effect. Iowa's six-week abortion ban is set to take effect today. Last month, the state's Supreme Court ruled 4 to 3 that the ban could be enforced. Other Big Stories In California.  Loren Elliott for The New York Times Thousands of people in Northern California are under evacuation orders prompted by the Park fire. Some of the displaced wonder if they'll have a home to return to. During the early days of the pandemic, police traffic stops fell across the U.S. In many places, enforcement hasn't returned. A blood test accurately diagnosed Alzheimer's 90 percent of the time, a study found. Opinions The Republican Party used to be hawkish and welcoming of immigrants. Trump has now replaced the party with the worst traits of populism, Peter Wehner writes. Trump should make abortion "illegal and unthinkable," Kristan Hawkins says in an interview with Jane Coaston. Gail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss Harris and JD Vance. Here are columns by Nicholas Kristof on A.I.-designed diseases and David French on masculinity. Subscribe Today The Morning highlights a small portion of the journalism that The New York Times offers. To access all of it, become a subscriber with this introductory offer. MORNING READS In Nasushiobara, Japan. Noriko Hayashi for The New York Times Rude customers: Japan is famous for its service culture, where the customer is always right. But how demanding is too demanding? Health: Bone loss is a natural part of getting older, but prioritizing certain foods can help slow down the process. Vermont: These young farmers are experimenting with ways to mitigate the effect of extreme weather. Metropolitan Diary: Noticing the quiet. Lives Lived: Edna O'Brien was a prolific Irish author whose evocative and explicit stories of loves lost earned her a literary reputation that matched the darkly complex lives of her tragic heroines. She died at 93. OLYMPICS Léon Marchand Daniel Berehulak/The New York Times Swimming: Léon Marchand of France won the men's 400-meter individual medley and set a new Olympic record, breaking the one set by Michael Phelps in 2008. Speed: Some swimmers, inspired by a math professor at the University of Virginia, are using statistics and fancy gear to shave fractions of a second from their time. Simone Biles: The American gymnast returned to the Olympic stage with a dazzling show — and an injury scare. Read a recap. Soccer: The U.S. women's national team defeated Germany, and secured a place in the knockout round. Basketball: Kevin Durant had a near-perfect performance as the U.S. men's team defeated Serbia. Today: The Games will have five swimming finals, the first game for the U.S. women's basketball team and the men's gymnastics team final. ARTS AND IDEAS Illustration by Nicolás Ortega In dating, a yellow flag is something that makes you pause. Social media is full of examples, like overusing emojis while texting and wearing a bad outfit. We spoke to experts about what yellow flags you should take seriously. Here are a few: They call all their exes "crazy." Your inner circle doesn't approve. They are inconsistent. Read more examples. More on culture Method dressing is in style. Zendaya has brought it to the Olympics, wearing an outfit covered in Olympic rings, Harper's Bazaar reports. Robert Downey Jr. will return to the Marvel cinematic universe as the villain Dr. Doom in two upcoming movies. He was once Iron Man. "Deadpool & Wolverine" was set to have a record opening for an R-rated movie. There are a lot of cameos in the film. See a guide to them all. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … David Malosh for The New York Times Bake a sheet pan chicken dinner inspired by patatas bravas. Escape from the crowds in Tuscany. Get an early start on back-to-school shopping. Read how Wirecutter approaches sustainability. Order a good frame online. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was variform. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —German Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018