The Morning: Four leading V.P. candidates

Plus, the Secret Service director, Sicily's drought and horror movies.

View in browser|nytimes.com July 24, 2024 By David Leonhardt and Ian Prasad Philbrick Good morning. We're covering Kamala Harris's V.P. options — as well as the Secret Service director, Sicily's drought and horror movies. At the Harris campaign headquarters in Delaware. Erin Schaff/The New York Times The Harris-______ campaign Kamala Harris's choice of a running mate probably won't decide this year's presidential campaign. It's hard to argue that a vice-presidential nominee has swung even a single state over the past 60 years. Why not? The country's polarization means that people increasingly base their vote on salient national issues. The media landscape has nationalized, reducing the influence of local news organizations and political parties. And vice presidents receive a fraction of the attention that presidents do. These factors help explain why Paul Ryan, then a Wisconsin congressman, didn't help Mitt Romney win that state in 2012 and why John Edwards didn't help John Kerry win North Carolina in 2004. Not since Lyndon Johnson helped John F. Kennedy narrowly win Texas in 1960 has a running mate arguably made a difference. But Harris's choice could still matter very much for other reasons. She will be picking a partner who would help her govern. Most important, she will be elevating a potential future president. Think back to four years ago. For his running mate, Joe Biden was choosing among Harris, Tammy Duckworth, Susan Rice, Elizabeth Warren, Gretchen Whitmer and a few others. By selecting Harris, Biden effectively chose the 2024 Democratic nominee. We've chatted with our colleagues covering the Harris campaign, and today we offer a breakdown of the leading possibilities. Most analysts expect Harris to pick a white man, as a form of demographic balance, much as Biden picked a woman of color four years ago. The swing-state candidates Despite the poor track record of swing-state running mates, they remain tempting possibilities. Given the expected closeness of the election, even a tiny boost could make a difference. Harris has two such options: Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. Kristian Thacker for The New York Times Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania's popular governor, has wowed many Democrats with a forceful speaking style and center-left record that helped him beat a Donald Trump ally in a landslide two years ago. Shapiro emphasizes abortion rights — but also supports fracking and school vouchers. He could help Harris combat Republican claims that she's too liberal. "Shapiro makes a lot of sense on paper," our colleague Adam Nagourney said. Perhaps Shapiro's biggest downside is that he could inflame divisions between moderate and liberal Democrats over the war in Gaza. Shapiro, who speaks proudly of his Jewish faith, has criticized both Israel's right-wing government as an obstacle to peace and some anti-Israel protests in the U.S. as antisemitic. Mark Kelly, a senator from Arizona, has a résumé from swing-state central casting, even if he's not the orator that Shapiro is. Kelly is a Navy veteran and a former NASA astronaut. He represents a border state and has criticized Biden's immigration policies. Kelly is married to Gabby Giffords, the former congresswoman who became a gun-control activist after being shot in 2011. A downside: If Harris chose him and won, it would trigger a special election in Arizona in 2026, potentially costing Democrats a Senate seat. Whitmer, Michigan's governor who would otherwise fall into this category, has said she doesn't want the job. (Interviews with Democratic delegates found more support for Shapiro and Kelly than any other candidates.) The red-state governors Some people may consider North Carolina a purple state, but no Democratic presidential or Senate candidate has won it in more than 15 years. Roy Cooper, however, has won back-to-back governor's races. He would help Harris project a pragmatic image nationally. He and Harris have known each other for years, having worked together when each was a state attorney general. Cooper, 67, has never lost an election. His signature achievement as governor has been expanding health insurance through Obamacare. But he is not considered exciting. "Cooper's not given to soaring oratory or impassioned stemwinders," Jeffrey Billman, a reporter for The Assembly, a North Carolina publication, has written. Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky. Natosha Via for The New York Times Andy Beshear, Kentucky's governor, has an even more impressive electoral record than Cooper does. In a state that Trump won by 26 points four years ago, Beshear has been elected governor twice. "Beshear's talent for projecting compassion, including to Republicans, helps explain how the Democrat pulled off 2023's most impressive political feat," Molly Ball of The Wall Street Journal wrote. A deacon at his church, Beshear won praise for his handling of Covid and natural disasters. He says that American politics have become too angry. And he has criticized other Democrats for suggesting that working-class people are dumb for voting Republican. The second tier Pete Buttigieg, Biden's transportation secretary, would be a Democratic version of Trump's running mate, JD Vance — a youthful military veteran with a talent for making his party's case on television. Buttigieg would be the first openly gay vice president. Tim Walz, Minnesota's populist governor, might help Harris appeal to working-class voters. Wes Moore, Maryland's first Black governor, is considered a potential future presidential candidate. JB Pritzker, the governor of Illinois, is a billionaire who could help finance Harris's campaign. Gina Raimondo has accomplished more than most secretaries of commerce and is a favorite of moderate Democrats. "Chemistry matters," said Jennifer Medina, a colleague of ours who's covering the campaign. "Harris obviously knows the job of vice president and is likely to look for someone who she can work well with in this fast sprint and beyond — someone who is unlikely to cause a lot of drama or be too focused on their own prospects for 2028 or 2032." More on the campaign Trump accused Harris of enabling the "willful demolition of American borders." He said he was willing to debate her multiple times. "I know Donald Trump's type," Harris said at a rally in suburban Wisconsin, contrasting her background as a prosecutor with his criminal convictions. More people attended the speech than were at any of Biden's campaign events this year. Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic congressional leaders, endorsed Harris in a joint press conference. Policy issues have played little role in the 2024 campaign so far. Harris's entry could change that, Nate Cohn writes. Biden, who returned to the White House after testing negative for Covid, will speak from the Oval Office tonight about his withdrawal. For much of Harris's vice presidency, internet memes mocked her. Now liberals are sharing them triumphantly, the critic Amanda Hess writes. (Read an explanation of Harris's "brat summer" rebrand and the coconut tree emojis.) THE LATEST NEWS The Trump Shooting Kimberly Cheatle, the Secret Service director, resigned over security failures related to the shooting. Biden said he would appoint a new director soon. The Pennsylvania police asked the Secret Service about a warehouse roof two days before a gunman used it to shoot at Trump, a state police colonel told Congress. Mike Johnson, speaker of the House, and Jeffries announced a bipartisan task force to investigate the assassination attempt. Trump accused Biden and Harris of failing to "properly protect me," writing on social media that he "was forced to take a bullet for Democracy." Israel-Hamas War The two main rival Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas, jointly endorsed a temporary government for Gaza and the West Bank, in a show of unity that China brokered. Benjamin Netanyahu will address Congress today. Some Democrats, including Senator Dick Durbin and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, plan to boycott the speech. Biden will meet with Netanyahu at the White House tomorrow. Trump and Harris will also meet with Netanyahu during his visit. International In Sicily.  Gianni Cipriano for The New York Times Parts of southern Italy are experiencing one of their worst droughts in decades. The authorities in Sicily are working to at least save tourism. Landslides in Ethiopia devastated a village and killed at least 229 people, including volunteers who had raced to help. Emmanuel Macron, France's president, rejected a coalition of left-wing parties' pick for prime minister, saying he would not appoint anyone until after the Olympics. A plane crashed while taking off from an airport in Kathmandu, Nepal, killing 18 people. Business Tesla's profits fell in the last three months as electric car sales weaken. Alphabet's profits jumped, but its stock price fell after an earnings report showed its ad sales slowing, The Wall Street Journal reports. The Transportation Department opened an investigation into Delta Air Lines over its treatment of passengers, including unaccompanied minors, after a global tech outage. Other Big Stories Senator Robert Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat recently convicted of corruption, will resign next month. The state's Democratic governor will appoint a temporary replacement. An Army reservist who fatally shot 18 people in Maine last year had homicidal thoughts beforehand. His commanders missed the signs, an investigation found. At Yellowstone National Park, tourists raced for safety after a hydrothermal explosion shot boiling water and rock into the air. Opinions Like many women in politics, Kamala Harris is underestimated. But she is well prepared for this moment, Hillary Clinton writes. Harris is unpopular, a bad campaigner and anchored to Biden's record. Nominating her is a mistake, Bret Stephens argues. Trump lies about his presidential record, as Steven Rattner shows in these charts. Nancy Pelosi was unapologetically ruthless in ending Biden's presidential campaign. She showed that powerful women don't have to be likable, Jessica Bennett writes. Here's a column by Thomas Friedman on Netanyahu. Subscribe Today The Morning highlights a small portion of the journalism that The New York Times offers. To access all of it, become a subscriber with this introductory offer. MORNING READS At the Olympic Village. James Hill for The New York Times Bon appétit: Food is the centerpiece of Paris's Olympic Village, where six restaurants will serve 15,000 Olympians. Wellness: How healthy is sweet corn? D.C.: The home of a former Washington Post publisher was once a hub for the powerful. A battle has left it empty for 22 years. Lives Lived: The ethnic studies professor Robert Allen wrote a book about Black U.S. sailors unfairly convicted of conspiracy to commit mutiny during World War II. Allen, who campaigned for the sailors' exoneration, died at 82 — a week before the Navy cleared them of wrongdoing. SPORTS Spying? The Canadian Olympic Committee apologized after a member of its support team was said to have flown a drone over the New Zealand women's soccer practice. Suspension: A top British equestrian won't compete in Paris because a video showed an undisclosed "error of judgment." Read more about her exit. An exit: A Japanese gymnast withdrew from the Olympic Games after violating her team's rules against smoking and drinking. ARTS AND IDEAS "Bodies Bodies Bodies," a movie from 2022. A24 In the era before mass cellphone use — before the late 1990s — isolation in horror movies was easier to parse. Now, filmmakers struggle to work around smartphones with GPS and internet access. Some solutions appear clichéd or perfunctory, but others use the unreliable cellphone as a key element of the terror. See examples of the ways horror cinema navigates the problem. More on culture John Mayall, a pioneering British bandleader whose mid-1960s blues ensembles incubated some of the biggest stars of rock's golden era, died at 90. Chappell Roan, a rising pop star, has scored two big hits recently. The venues her team picked out months ago for her tour are struggling to fit her audience. Stephen Colbert discussed Charli XCX's claim that Harris is "brat." THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Rachel Vanni for The New York Times Make spaghetti with tuna with items already in your pantry. Test your fitness. Protect your ears at concerts. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was talkative. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David and Ian P.S. Jeremiah Bogert, a Times photo editor who has worked on this newsletter, co-directed a documentary about Chinese surfers challenging their country's rigid sports culture. Watch it here. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. 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