The Morning: The Democrats’ unhappy indecision

Plus, Israel, Beryl and a slap fighting league.

View in browser|nytimes.com July 10, 2024 By David Leonhardt and Ian Prasad Philbrick Good morning. We're covering the Democrats' indecision on President Biden — as well as Israel, Beryl and a slap fighting league. President Biden Tom Brenner for The New York Times The status quo Democratic politicians seemed to be falling in line behind President Biden yesterday even as more polling showed his campaign to be in trouble. In today's newsletter, we'll explain the latest developments and polling. We will also give you a selection of commentary — both pro-Biden and anti-Biden — that we found helpful. The view on the Hill Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader.  Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times If Democrats are going to persuade Biden to quit the race, it will probably require a concerted effort from the party's congressional leaders. And many of those leaders remain skeptical of Biden's ability to win in November, given voters' deep concerns about his age. "Behind closed doors, there was a consensus forming among the members in the toughest House seats that Democrats would have a much better shot of winning the majority with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket," our colleague Annie Karni reported from Capitol Hill. Representative Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey yesterday became the seventh House Democrat to call on Biden to withdraw. "The stakes are too high — and the threat is too real — to stay silent," she said. Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado said that Biden was on a path to losing in a landslide. Yet after lunchtime meetings to discuss the situation, Democratic leaders seemed unable to agree about how to proceed. They are nervous about sticking with Biden — and nervous about the chaos and uncertainty of choosing another nominee. "There is no consensus on what to do," Carl Hulse, The Times's chief Washington correspondent, told us. For now, most Democrats have chosen to defer to Biden, and he has made clear that he wants to run for another term. Dozens of Congress members have publicly backed him this week. Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries — the Democratic leaders in the Senate and the House — continue to support him. "I'm with Joe," Schumer repeatedly said yesterday. Still, Carl said that Biden's support remained fragile. Further signs of aging — like those he showed in the debate two weeks ago — could unravel that support quickly. The public's view The polls suggests that Democrats are right to be nervous. It might seem early in the presidential campaign, with Election Day four months away. But polling by July of a presidential election year usually predicts the winner. Biden led Donald Trump four years ago. Hillary Clinton led Trump eight years ago (and she won the popular vote). Barack Obama led the July polls in both 2008 and 2012. Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan both led in the summers of their re-election campaigns, and both won. There are examples of candidates who have overcome weak summer polling numbers, including George W. Bush in 2004. But Biden today looks to be in a worse position than any recent come-from-behind winner. "There are no precedents in recent memory for presidents to have approval ratings like Biden's who then go on to win re-election," Nate Cohn, The Times's chief political analyst, said in a recent interview with The New Yorker. Consider the following: Biden trails in every swing state tracked by The Times's polling averages: Source: Polling averages by The New York Times as of July 9 Democratic Senate candidates are running well ahead of Biden in every swing state with a Senate race. In Wisconsin, for example, a post-debate poll by AARP found Senator Tammy Baldwin leading her Republican challenger by five points even as Biden trailed Trump by six points. This pattern suggests that voters are more dissatisfied with Biden personally than with his party and that a different nominee might fare better. Brandon Friedman, a former Obama administration staff member, pointed out on social media that these results also suggest the polls are not skewed against Democrats. Biden supporters sometimes point to Harry Truman's 1948 comeback victory as inspiration. But Truman won partly because the polls were misleading and underestimated overall Democratic support that year. (Here's a closer look at polling misses, from 2020.) Polls continue to suggest that Biden's age is a central reason for the dissatisfaction with him. In a recent Wall Street Journal survey, 80 percent of voters said he was too old for a second term — similar to the findings of polls by CBS News and The Times. Commentary Biden has time to recover, and the potential alternative nominees all have downsides, Jonathan Last of The Bulwark writes. Read his case for Biden. "If we're going to judge simply by the record of the administration thus far, I would say that, yeah, he has the capacity to govern," Times Opinion's Jamelle Bouie argues. Biden is wrongly casting the "regular folk" as being on his side against the party's elite, Hilary Rosen, a Democratic strategist, argues. Polling shows that most voters don't want him to serve another term. Putting personal ambition before your country's interests is supposed to be Donald Trump's thing, not Biden's, Bret Stephens writes in Times Opinion. Democrats' willingness to stick with Biden suggests that they don't see a second Trump term as the civic emergency that it is, Jonathan Chait writes in New York magazine. More election coverage At the NATO summit in Washington, Biden forcefully declared that the alliance is "more powerful than ever." At a Florida rally, Trump mocked Democrats' infighting as "a full-scale breakdown." He challenged Biden to another debate and to a golf game. Vice President Kamala Harris, campaigning for Biden in Nevada, cast the election as a choice between "freedom, compassion and rule of law" and "chaos, fear and hate." Biden has blasted the big donors who want him to withdraw as the moneyed elite. If he stays in, he may have to rely more on small donors. Biden, in his defiance, appears to be trying to run out the clock and make it harder for Democrats to replace him, Adam Nagourney and Jim Rutenberg write. THE LATEST NEWS More on Politics At Mar-a-Lago.  Chandan Khanna/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Since Trump left office, Mar-a-Lago has transformed from the host of society galas to a hub for the hard right. Two Democratic senators asked the Justice Department to open a criminal investigation into Justice Clarence Thomas over possible violations of federal ethics and tax laws. Israel-Hamas War Outside a hospital in Khan Younis, in southern Gaza.  Bashar Taleb/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images An Israeli airstrike near a school building being used as a shelter by Palestinians killed at least 25 people in southern Gaza, the health ministry there said. Israel said that the strike was targeting a Hamas member who took part in the Oct. 7 attacks. Hezbollah launched rockets into the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, killing two people, in response to an apparent Israeli strike in Syria. Israel's defense minister approved a plan to start drafting ultra-Orthodox Jewish men into the military, after the Supreme Court ruled against their exemption. In Gaza, organized looters are attacking aid convoys in search of smuggled cigarettes. The outgoing chief of Israel's Central Command, which is responsible for military forces in the West Bank, denounced Jewish settler violence and the government's policies there. More International News Venezuelans abroad now find it almost impossible to register to vote in this month's presidential election. Many left because they oppose the autocratic president. A Russian court accused Aleksei Navalny's widow, who fled the country in 2021, of "participating in an extremist community" and ordered her arrest if she returns. In Ukraine, the Russian military is learning how to reduce the effectiveness of Western high-tech weapons, The Wall Street Journal reports. Other Big Stories Thieves have stripped copper wire out of thousands of U.S. streetlights, taking advantage of increased demand for metals. Swaths of Houston are still without power after Hurricane Beryl. See images from The A.P. of the destruction left by the hurricane. Prosecutors in Manhattan said they were pursuing further allegations of sexual assault against Harvey Weinstein ahead of a fresh trial. The federal government barred an anonymous messaging app that markets itself as a "safe space for teens" from offering services to minors. Opinions American support and the threat from Russia have made NATO stronger, Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser, writes. Many Gen Z Iranians already see the Islamic Republic as irredeemable. The election of a moderate president is unlikely to satisfy them, Holly Dagres writes. Here are columns by Thomas Friedman on Trump and Biden and Thomas Edsall on the Supreme Court and the election. The Games Sale. Offer won't last. Games for relaxation. Games for concentration. We have them all. For a limited time, save 50% on your first year of a New York Times Games subscription and enjoy new puzzles every day. MORNING READS Tim Bushe's topiary creations. Andrew Testa for The New York Times Meet Tim Bushe: He's turned the hedges in his London neighborhood into a menagerie. Take the quiz: What's a sundress, and what isn't? In the cart: Your grocery receipts can say a lot about you, and about America's relationship to food. People across the U.S. let The Times take a look. A deadly sin? More tourists are interacting with sloths, and experts are concerned. Lives Lived: Richard Goldstein was a trailblazer in mapping other planets, pioneering techniques that scientists now use to measure melting glaciers on Earth. He died at 97. SPORTS Copa América: Argentina defeated Canada to advance to the finals. Lionel Messi scored his first goal of the tournament. Euros: Spain is in the final after beating France. Its first goal came from Lamine Yamal, 16, the youngest scorer in the championship's history. Wimbledon: Jannik Sinner, the men's No. 1 seed, lost in five sets to Daniil Medvedev. Oranje: The best party at this year's Euros? Wherever the Dutch fans are. ARTS AND IDEAS At a slap fighting contest.  Daniel Dorsa for The New York Times Dana White, the president of U.F.C., is betting on a new venture: a slap fighting league called Power Slap. White has helped to establish rules and protocols, but the Brain Injury Association of America has called for the competition to be banned. "There will be deaths from this," one doctor said. More on culture Israel's official Holocaust memorial is taking new steps to preserve its collection of artifacts and testimony. Shani Lechan makes undetectable human hair wigs that are worn by neighborhood moms and supermodels including Naomi Campbell. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Armando Rafael for The New York Times Serve slow-cooker BBQ chicken between buns, with pickles and slaw. Stock your freezer for summer with the best ice cream sandwiches. Buy a snorkel set for your trip. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was bronzing. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David and Ian P.S. Does America's largest health care company control your doctor's office? The Times wants to hear from patients and providers about medical practices affiliated with Optum, part of UnitedHealth Group. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. 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