The Morning: Two Covid theories

Plus, the G7 summit, policing and soccer

View in browser|nytimes.com June 14, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering the origin of the Covid virus — as well as the G7 summit, policing and soccer. An exhibition on the fight against Covid in Wuhan, China. Gilles Sabrie for The New York Times Dueling theories The origin of the Covid virus remains the pandemic's biggest mystery. Did the virus jump to human beings from animals being sold at a food market in Wuhan, China? Or did the virus leak from a laboratory in Wuhan? U.S. officials remain divided. The F.B.I. and the Department of Energy each concluded that a lab leak was the more likely cause. The National Intelligence Council and some other agencies believe that animal-to-human transmission is more likely. The C.I.A. has not taken a position. The question remains important partly because it can inform the strategies to reduce the chances of another horrific pandemic. A recent Times Opinion essay — by Alina Chan, a biologist — refocused attention on the issue by making the case for the lab-leak theory. In today's newsletter, I'll try to lay out the clearest arguments for each side to help you decide which you consider more likely. The case for natural transmission 1. It's the norm. Covid is part of the coronavirus family, so named because the virus contains a protein shaped like a spike. (Corona is the Latin word for crown.) In recent decades, the main way that coronaviruses have infected people is through animal-to-human transmission, which is also known as natural transmission. The SARS virus, for example, appears to have jumped from civet cats, a relative of the mongoose, to humans in Asia in 2002. MERS seems to have jumped from camels to people in the Middle East around 2012. There is no previous example of a major coronavirus escaping a lab. When you're trying to choose between a historically common explanation for a phenomenon and an unusual explanation, the common one is usually the better bet. 2. Look around the market. Two scientific papers have pointed out that a suspiciously large number of early confirmed Covid cases had connections to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan. Many of these cases, in late 2019, occurred in people who lived near the market. This map comes from a Times story about the research: Source: Michael Worobey et al., preprint via Zenodo | By The New York Times Importantly, the market also sold live animals, including raccoon dogs, that scientists previously found to be susceptible to coronaviruses. 3. Look inside the market. Shortly after Covid began spreading, Chinese scientists swabbed walls, floors and other surfaces inside the Huanan market for the virus. They found a cluster of positive samples in the market's southwest corner, where 10 stalls sold live animals. "Strikingly, five of the samples came from a single stall," my colleagues Carl Zimmer and Benjamin Mueller wrote. That stall appears to have had a history of selling raccoon dogs. The case for a lab leak 1. Follow the lab. If historical logic points to natural transmission, a different concept arguably points to a lab leak: Occam's razor. It's a philosophical principle holding that the simplest explanation for a phenomenon is usually the correct one. In this case, a new SARS-like virus started in a city with one of the world's leading labs for researching SARS-like viruses. Many Chinese cities have markets selling live animals; only one is home to the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The Wuhan lab maintained "one of the world's largest repositories of bat samples, which has enabled its coronavirus research," U.S. intelligence officials have written. Before the pandemic, the lab's scientists traveled to faraway caves to collect virus samples. And bats, like raccoon dogs, can carry coronaviruses. One possibility is that a virus that would otherwise have remained in the caves infected a lab employee. Another possibility is that scientists in Wuhan engineered a contagious new virus while researching cures and that the virus accidentally escaped. Notably, there is no evidence of any infected animals, dead or alive, from the Huanan market. Consider this table, from Chan's Opinion essay: By The New York Times 2. Leaks happen. In recent decades, reports suggests that laboratory employees working on a variety of diseases have been accidentally infected in the United States, Britain, China, Germany, Russia, South Korea and elsewhere. Even before the pandemic, the Wuhan lab seemed to present a safety risk. When one outside expert heard that the lab planned to research coronaviruses without using state-of-the-art precautions, he wrote in 2018 that "U.S. researchers will likely freak out." 3. China controls the evidence. It's worth asking which of the two stories China would rather the world believe. Either would be damaging, but a lab leak seems significantly more so. It would mean that China's scientific incompetence killed millions of people — which could explain why Chinese officials have worked so hard to restrict outside research and scrutiny about the virus's origins. The bottom line Do you find both explanations plausible? I do. As I've followed this debate over the past few years, I have gone back and forth about which is more likely. Today, I'm close to 50-50. I have heard similar sentiments from some experts. "No one has proof," Julian Barnes, who covers intelligence agencies for The Times, told me. "Everyone is using logic." Julian's advice to the rest of us: "Be wary, keep an open mind, rule nothing out." Related: Read the letters that The Times published in response to Chan's essay. ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS Supreme Court The Supreme Court upheld access to the abortion pill mifepristone, unanimously rejecting a challenge by a group of anti-abortion doctors. The ruling was narrow, based on procedural grounds. In a separate case, the court ruled in favor of Starbucks regarding workers it fired. The ruling makes it harder for the government to intervene when workers accuse companies of suppressing union organizing. The justices also rejected a California lawyer's attempt to trademark the phrase "Trump too small," but disagreed over the rationale. Justice Clarence Thomas failed to disclose three more trips on a Republican donor's private jet, a Senate investigation found. Trump in Washington Trump with Senate Republicans. Doug Mills/The New York Times Donald Trump met with Republicans on Capitol Hill for the first time since his presidency, receiving cheers. He also told a group of executives — including Tim Cook of Apple and Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase — that if re-elected he would cut the corporate tax rate again. Trump complained about Taylor Swift and criticized the city of Milwaukee, which will host the Republican convention next month. Trump turns 78 today. Yesterday, congressional Republicans sang "Happy Birthday" and gave him a cake topped with an American flag. "They always return to the scene of the crime": Late night hosts recapped his trip. More on Politics President Biden and his son Hunter. Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times President Biden said he would not commute the sentence of his son Hunter, whom a jury convicted on federal gun charges this week. Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic bill that would have protected access to in vitro fertilization. Two Republicans, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, voted to advance it. "I know what it's like to struggle," Biden said in a new ad, aimed at Hispanic voters, that focuses on his efforts to cut costs for consumers. G7 Summit The Group of 7 economies promised Ukraine a $50 billion loan with frozen Russian assets as collateral. Biden warned that Putin "cannot wait us out." Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky signed a 10-year security pact designed to put Ukraine on a path to joining NATO. Zelensky also announced a security deal with Japan. Leaders from India, Brazil, the Middle East and Africa will join discussions today, a nod to the changing global balance of power. Israel-Hamas War Why is a Gaza cease-fire elusive? Both sides are pursuing maximalist demands, Isabel Kershner writes. Hezbollah launched what the Israeli military called the group's most serious rocket and drone assault in more than eight months of hostilities. Hamas said it did not know how many of the remaining hostages taken on Oct. 7 were still alive. The United Automobile Workers union is coping with tensions between its student members focused on the war in Gaza and its blue-collar workers focused on pocketbook issues. Other Big Stories Floodwaters in Hallandale Beach, Fla. Saul Martinez for The New York Times Heavy rain has deluged the southern tip of Florida for several days, causing widespread flooding that has killed at least two people. Tesla shareholders approved a pay package for Elon Musk worth more than $45 billion. A judge, who voided the deal earlier this year, will decide whether to reinstate it. The F.A.A.'s administrator called the agency's oversight of Boeing "too hands-off" and promised more safety inspections. The site of the Parkland school shooting, the former freshman building at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Florida, will be torn down. A police officer pleaded guilty to sexually abusing a child in his police car. Spend some time with this long story from The Washington Post that looks at the case — and how officers accused of child sexual abuse often evade consequences. Opinions A former governor is using the courts to stifle local reporting. If he prevails, it will hurt press freedom nationwide, Adam Ganucheau, Mississippi Today's editor in chief, writes. Ronald Reagan governed like an old man, even when he received criticism about his age. Biden's problem is he seems to be in denial, Maureen Dowd argues. Here are columns by Michelle Goldberg on the movie "The Apprentice" and David Brooks on gifted children. The Games Sale. Limited time offer. Come play with us. Subscribe to New York Times Games for 50% off your first year. Strengthen your Wordle strategy with WordleBot (now in the app), reach Genius on Spelling Bee, and play The Crossword, Tiles and more. MORNING READS The muddied, wet bills and coins found in the safe that was hoisted out of a creek.  Alex Kent for The New York Times Treasure hunter: A magnet fisherman pulled up a safe holding thousands of dollars. One problem: The bills were disintegrating. No headphones: Some people are bothered by the liberal use of speakerphones. Ethicist: "My son's ex-girlfriend wants to keep her pregnancy. Is that unfair to him?" Lives Lived: Moody ballads like her 1962 breakthrough, "Tous les Garçons et les Filles," made Françoise Hardy a hero to French youth. Her lithe look and understated personality incarnated a 1960s cool her nation still treasures. She died at 80. SPORTS European Championship: The most important man in Germany this month is its soccer coach. N.H.L.: The Florida Panthers outlasted the Edmonton Oilers to go up 3-0 in the Stanley Cup Final, one win away from a championship. N.F.L.: The Jacksonville Jaguars agreed to a five-year, $275 million contract extension with quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Golf: At the U.S. Open, Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay both shot five-under 65s to tie for the first-round lead. ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS Judith Jones Natalie Conn Meet an editor who altered American culture: Judith Jones. She discovered Julia Child and saved the diary of Anne Frank from a slush pile. But her most significant contribution was developing modern cookbooks, turning them into literary works with her high standard for prose. "Judith wasn't just interested in recipes," said Madhur Jaffrey, an Indian-born cookbook author who worked with her. "She was interested in the people behind them and their culture. This was radical for the time." More on culture "Bridgerton," set in Regency-era England, relies on a team of historical consultants. The production team (mostly) takes their advice. This year, the reigning Miss USA and Miss Teen USA resigned. It was the culmination of long-simmering issues within the organization that runs the pageant. Lonely members of Gen Z are attending dinner parties with strangers to make real-life connections, Bon Appétit reports. Idina Menzel will return to Broadway next year in "Redwood," a new musical about grieving and ancient trees. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Johnny Miller for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Erin Jeanne McDowell. Showcase fresh summer peaches with a simple cake-style cobbler. Reap the sweet rewards of bitter melon. Slather on a user-friendly sunscreen. Create a new tradition by giving a simple tote bag as a gift. Take our news quiz. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was nightly. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David P.S. Ahead of the Tonys this weekend, two Times theater writers, Jesse Green and Michael Paulson, will take part in a Q.&A. on Reddit's Broadway forum today. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. To opt out of updates and offers sent from The Athletic, submit a request. Subscribe to The TimesGet The New York Times app Connect with us on: Change Your EmailPrivacy PolicyContact UsCalifornia Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018