The Morning: Biden’s distrust challenge

Plus, immigration, extreme heat and sandwiches.

View in browser|nytimes.com June 18, 2024 By David Leonhardt Good morning. We're covering the distrustful voters who may decide the 2024 election — as well as immigration, extreme heat and sandwiches. In Charlotte, N.C. Travis Dove for The New York Times They want change The voters likely to decide the Biden-Trump rematch don't participate in most elections. They are irregular voters who tend to skip primaries and midterm elections but do often turn out for the country's highest-profile campaign — a presidential election. Nate Cohn, The Times's chief political analyst, explained this phenomenon in a recent article. President Biden leads Donald Trump among Americans who are highly engaged with politics, Nate noted. Yet less engaged voters are so dissatisfied with the country's condition that they prefer Trump by a wide enough margin to give Trump a small overall lead. By The New York Times These irregular voters have different concerns on average than politically engaged Americans do. Irregular voters are less likely to focus on hot-button issues that motivate committed Democrats and Republicans, like abortion, immigration and democracy. Irregular voters focus more on pocketbook issues like inflation and health care. They are more likely to say the economy is in bad shape. Based on New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls in six battleground states. | By The New York Times A Carolina lament I think this pattern helps explain why some of Biden's core campaign messages have not resonated with swing voters. Biden talks about the country's soul and pitches himself as a defender of American values, especially democracy. It is an understandable pitch in many ways: Trump is hostile to democratic traditions in a way that no other modern U.S. politician has been. But many swing voters are focused elsewhere. They are dissatisfied with the country's direction and, in some cases, have been for years. Many distrust the political system, the media and other institutions and favor sweeping changes. Biden's promise of stability — along with his vagueness about a second-term agenda — falls flat with them. A recent Wall Street Journal article on the Democratic Party's weakness with rural voters made a related point. The article described Dante Pittman, a 28-year-old Democratic candidate for the North Carolina legislature who has been reaching out to disillusioned voters in his district. He believes that the Democrats' national message doesn't match those voters' concerns, The Journal reported: Pittman has campaigned full time since last fall, knocking on doors most afternoons and visiting churches on Sundays. He talks about economic opportunities, education and local issues, such as the closing of an area's sole pharmacy. Pittman said the national party's message seems to be: The other side is crazy. We're not. He wants to persuade state and national party leaders that the pitch should be, "Donald Trump is not only corrupt but an economic disaster," he said. Issues over character In Scranton, Pa. Al Drago for The New York Times I'm also struck that several Democrats running in tough Senate races have adopted a message closer to the one Pittman prefers. These Democrats — in Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are focused on pocketbook issues. They portray themselves as populist fighters trying to reduce living costs and take on special interests. And all six of these Democrats are faring better in the polls than Biden. (Here is a recent Morning newsletter with more details.) Finally, I'm reminded of the arguments of Luigi Zingales, an economist at the University of Chicago. Zingales grew up in Italy, where a bombastic right-wing populist — Silvio Berlusconi — presaged Trump by becoming prime minister in 1994 and holding the job on and off for years. Long before Trump became president, Zingales warned that he could. Shortly after Trump's 2016 victory, Zingales wrote an Opinion essay in The Times outlining the political strategies that tend to fail when opposing a figure like Trump. Berlusconi's least-effective opponents focused on his personality and argued that he was beyond the pale of acceptable politics. This criticism made many Italian voters like him even more. They reasoned that if the elites who had done such a poor job running the country hated Berlusconi, maybe he was the solution after all. Berlusconi's most effective opponents, by contrast, treated him like an ordinary politician who would not improve their lives. "They focused on the issues, not on his character," Zingales wrote. Biden's imbalance Biden's campaign sometimes makes arguments along these lines. It points out that Trump has promised to cut taxes even more for the wealthy than he did in his first term — and that Trump's proposed tariffs would raise inflation. So far, though, these messages tend to be less prominent than the arguments about democracy and the soul of America. That imbalance seems to be one reason for Biden's struggles. It's true that focusing on Trumpism's threat to American democracy has helped Democrats win midterms and special elections for the past three years. Doing so has often persuaded a decisive slice of politically engaged Americans to oppose Trump's Republican Party. But a presidential electorate is different. It's larger and more diverse. It's younger, less affluent and less educated. It cares more about kitchen-table issues — like good-paying jobs, consumer prices and the cost of health care — and less about the issues that transfix cable television. By sticking mostly to the message that helped Democrats do well in the midterms, Biden is still leading among the narrower group of Americans who follow politics closely and vote regularly. He is trailing among the voters who choose a president. Related: A new Biden ad tries to split the difference. "This election is between a convicted criminal who is only out for himself and a president who is fighting for your family," the narrator says. More on the election Democrats hope that ballot measures on abortion and marijuana will help them regain ground in Florida, which has become a solidly red state. Three large crypto firms have donated about $150 million to fund candidates in congressional races. ADVERTISEMENT THE LATEST NEWS Migration Biden will give legal protections to undocumented immigrants who are married to American citizens. They will be shielded from deportation and given work permits. Utah has urged migrants to "consider another state" with blunt fliers. Israel-Hamas War Aid passing into the Gaza Strip.  Amir Levy/Getty Images The Israeli military said it had suspended operations during daylight hours in parts of southern Gaza. Aid workers hope the pause will help food delivery. Top Democrats in Congress approved a major sale of F-15 jets to Israel. With many of Gaza's hospitals out of service, some of the wounded undergo crude amputations. Ahmad al-Jamal was a well-known doctor in Gaza, and his son was a journalist. Inside their apartment, they imprisoned Israeli hostages for Hamas, The Wall Street Journal reported. China Ships from China and the Philippines collided near a disputed archipelago in the South China Sea. Each country blamed the other. Heavy rains lashed southern China, killing at least 9. See video of the floods and landslides. The government is encouraging women to have bigger families. Follow three mothers who say they're fine without more babies. More International News A photo provided by the North Korean government in 2000.  Korean Central News Agency, via Associated Press Images Vladimir P​utin will visit North Korea today for the first time in about a quarter-century. Russia receives weapons from North Korea for the war in Ukraine. In Thailand, lawmakers approved a marriage equality bill. The move means the country could become the first in Southeast Asia to legalize same-sex marriage. More doctors went on strike in South Korea. They're protesting the government's plan to train more physicians. Heat In Missouri.  Jeff Roberson/Associated Press Triple-digit heat hit the Midwest. The heat wave is expected to linger over the East Coast this week. Labor and environmental groups are pushing FEMA to recognize extreme heat as a "major disaster." Doing so would release relief funds. New York City will open cooling centers today. Here's how to navigate the city in the heat. Several tourists have died recently from heat-related sickness. Stay safe while traveling. Other Big Stories A bird flu outbreak in dairy cattle has so far spilled over to just three farmworkers in the U.S. Read what could happen if more people are infected. The Washington Post has been reeling from successive revelations about its incoming editor and its chief executive. It made for one awkward party. U.S. regulators sued Adobe, the maker of Photoshop, claiming that the software company made it costly and difficult to unsubscribe. A man charged with serial killings on Long Island kept a meticulous manual showing how to select and dispose of victims, prosecutors say. Opinions Stop comparing Hamas to the Nazis. Doing so is wrong and helps the Israeli government avoid responsibility for its failures on Oct. 7, writes Jonathan Dekel-Chen, the father of a hostage taken by Hamas. World leaders have failed to address humanitarian crises, like the ones in Ethiopia and Sudan, Martin Griffiths argues. Here are columns by Michelle Goldberg on Republican theocrats, and Charles Blow on Juneteenth. Games for relaxation. Games for concentration. We have them all. For a limited time, save 50% on your first year of a New York Times Games subscription and enjoy new puzzles every day. MORNING READS A studio apartment in London. Nicholas Worley Room within a room: Create more space in a small home. Savings groups: In South Korea, friends help each other save for big purchases. School's out: Help children cut down on screen time this summer. Trust issues: Read a story of how an unlikely renter became a friend. Baby names: Have you heard of these? Tank? Afternoon? Flick? Orca? Aging: Smelling ability diminishes as people get older, but basic nose training can reverse the effects. Lives Lived: William Donaldson upended Wall Street traditions as a young executive in the 1970s, but as chairman of the S.E.C. in the wake of the Enron scandal, he pushed for tighter financial regulation. He died at 93. SPORTS N.B.A. Finals: The Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks to claim a league-record 18th championship. Golf: Rory McIlroy said he was taking a break from the game after a gutting loss at the U.S. Open. Soccer: Belgium lost to Slovakia in the Euros, the first big upset of this year's tournament. ADVERTISEMENT ARTS AND IDEAS Tony Cenicola/The New York Times, Heather Willensky for The New York Times You can tell a lot about a city by the sandwiches it keeps. Times food writers crisscrossed the five boroughs to compile this list of the 57 sandwiches that define New York City. It's not a best-of list — they're all delicious — but rather a culinary tour of the bodegas, delis, carts and takeout spots where New Yorkers are always finding new things to stuff between two pieces of bread. More on culture Go inside the Tony Awards after-party — and the after-after-party, where performers belted out show tunes until nearly 5 a.m. These were the 17 most unforgettable looks from the Tonys red carpet. The fashion designer Dries Van Noten is retiring. Read an exclusive interview with him. THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … David Malosh for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews. Serve this modern makeover of an American classic, strawberry pretzel bars. Pick the best cotton sheets. Eat a more nutritious lunch at work. These tips and recipes can help. Go on vacation to cities with great beaches this summer. Avoid bug bites with these repellents. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Yesterday's pangram was compound. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. Correction: Yesterday's newsletter referred incorrectly to Kyrie Irving. He's a former Boston Celtics star who now plays for the Dallas Mavericks; he is not a current Celtics star. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. 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