The long anticipated, and increasingly dreaded, US election is here.
Next Monday night, Republican voters in Iowa will brave the bone-chilling January cold and gather in schools, firehouses, restaurants and community halls to pick their nominee for president in 2024.
The fabled Iowa caucuses don't have that great of a record in actually picking presidents. But they did identify the early potential of Democrats Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008, and of Republican George W. Bush in 2016. The Hawkeye State requires candidates to spend months appearing before small, exacting audiences; forces them to hone their messages; and usually thins down the presidential field for later contests.
One week out, Iowa seems poised to deliver a verdict that will be heard around the world.
Former President Donald Trump, who left office in disgrace three years ago following his lies about a stolen 2020 election and after his mob ransacked the US Capitol, is targeting one of the most stunning comebacks in political history.
For Trump supporters, victory in Iowa would validate false claims that he was illegally pushed out of office and bolster Trump's arguments that his four looming trials and 91 criminal charges are just political persecution. It would also give him a giant step toward his third consecutive Republican nomination and set up a contest with current President Joe Biden in November. Outside of the US, an Iowa victory for Trump would reverberate as a wake-up call to US allies, whom the ex-president frequently tormented during his time in office and who have so far largely been unwilling to confront the specter of his possible return.
Right now, Trump is polling at over 50% in Iowa and has more support than all of his Republican rivals combined. If that's how it ends up, he will head into the New Hampshire primary nominating contest a week later with huge momentum and seeking to shut down the GOP White House race before it even starts.
The two states represent the best -- and perhaps only -- chance for the other top two Republicans, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley to slow Trump. Both aim to appeal to Republicans who can't bear the thought of the ex-president returning chaos to the Oval Office.
DeSantis is betting everything on Iowa and he could be ejected from the race with a poor showing in the state. Haley hopes a strong performance in New Hampshire could be a springboard for a showdown with Trump in her home state of South Carolina. Iowa and New Hampshire have a history of surprises so nothing is impossible.
But Biden isn't waiting for Republicans voters to weigh in. As Democrats fret at his low approval ratings and the possibility of a race against Trump, he's effectively launched his 2024 general election campaign. At Valley Forge in Pennsylvania, where General George Washington once girded his men to battle the forces of a tyrannical British king, Biden argued that a second term for Trump could destroy Democratic freedoms won in the Revolutionary War.
"Trump's assault on democracy isn't just part of his past. It's what he's promising for the future. He's being straightforward. He's not hiding the ball," Biden said.
The president also defined the 2024 election.
"This is the first national election since January 6 insurrection placed a dagger at the throat of American democracy," he said. "We all know who Donald Trump is. The question we have to answer is: 'Who are we?' That's what's at stake. Who are we?"
The world will learn a lot about America and Americans over the next 11 months.
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